Shannons Weekend Sixer: High-Octane Picks for NFL and College Football

The first full football weekend of September always feels like Christmas morning for bettors. You’ve got that mix of hype, overreactions from Week 1, and lines that still haven’t fully settled into who these teams really are. That’s where the edge is—finding numbers that don’t match reality yet. Early in the year, depth charts are fresh, coaches are still testing wrinkles, and oddsmakers are adjusting right along with us. It’s the perfect window to grab value before the market sharpens up and every spread feels razor-tight by midseason.

NCAAF Picks Sept 6th

Troy +31.5 @ Clemson

Clemson is coming off a letdown and will be motivated to put Troy away early, but covering a spread north of 30 is always tricky. Blowouts often mean second-stringers see the field late, which opens the door for a backdoor cover. Troy has enough offensive structure to grab a touchdown or two, and their defense is scrappy enough to avoid a total collapse. Clemson should cruise to a comfortable win, but 31.5 is a big number to clear. Taking Troy with that cushion feels like the smarter side, since even a 41-14 type of result cashes the ticket.

Kansas vs. Missouri — Over 50.5

Despite Kansas leaning on returning QB Jalon Daniels and Missouri bringing in new offensive transfers, both teams are showing enough scoring capability to push this game over the 50.5-point mark. The line opened higher and has since dropped to 50.5, suggesting the market is bracing for a shootout in this revived Border War rivalry. Both offenses have already looked sharp in Week 1, and given Kansas’s offensive uptick and Missouri’s balanced firepower, this total feels reachable.

Oregon State –2.5 vs Fresno State

Oregon State enters Week 2 at home as a 2.5-point favorite over Fresno State. Despite an 0–1 start, the Beavers return QB Maalik Murphy from Duke and still possess a top rushing threat in Anthony Hankerson, both of whom provide the offensive balance to control this matchup. Meanwhile, Fresno State has a strong ground game, but OSU’s defensive depth and home-field advantage should tilt the scales in their favor, making the -2.5 spread a reasonable lean

NFL Picks for Week 1: Sept 4–8, 2025

Jaguars –3.5 vs. Panthers

Jacksonville opens at home against Carolina in a spot that sets up well for them. The Panthers’ offensive line is already shaky, with left tackle Ikem Ekwonu sidelined after an emergency appendectomy. That’s a big problem against a Jaguars front that added Arik Armstead and has Josh Hines-Allen coming off the edge. Jacksonville, under new head coach Liam Coen, is healthy and energized, and rookie Travis Hunter is expected to contribute immediately on both sides of the ball. With better depth, a cleaner injury report, and home field, the Jags have the edge to cover the 3.5.

Ravens –1 at Bills

Sunday night in Buffalo features Lamar Jackson against Josh Allen in a near pick’em game. The Bills enter Week 1 thin on defense—Tre’Davious White is sidelined, DeWayne Carter is done for the season, and the secondary depth is a concern. Baltimore also has its own injury hits, with tight end Isaiah Likely out, but they still bring a balanced attack built around Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Mark Andrews. Against a banged-up Bills defense, the Ravens’ offensive versatility and improved front seven make them the stronger play to win outright on the road.

Steelers/Jets — Over 37.5

This total sits in the high-30s across books. Last season, Steelers games topped this number in 11 of 17 outings, while the Jets went over it in 12 of 17. On average, their combined scoring came in at just over 42 points per game. You’ve got Aaron Rodgers starting for Pittsburgh returning to MetLife, while Justin Fields starts for the Jets in Aaron Glenn’s debut with Tanner Engstrand calling plays. Alijah Vera-Tucker being out hurts the Jets’ line, but with Fields’ legs, Breece Hall’s burst, and Rodgers leading the other side, there are still multiple paths for this game to push over 40. At 37.5, one early TD swing or short field can push this over.

Closing Thoughts

History tells us Week 1 underdogs deserve respect. Since 2000, they’ve hit at a 53% clip ATS (175–155–14), and divisional dogs in particular have been gold, going 37–15–1 since 2014 (NFL). Remember, early September football isn’t about polished execution, it’s about finding rhythm while coaches break in new systems and rosters adjust to offseason moves. The smartest approach is to stay disciplined: lean into proven Week 1 trends, give extra weight to veteran quarterbacks and home field spots, and resist chasing every shiny favorite on the board. Let’s start the season smart, not flashy. Lock in and cash those tickets!