Shannons Weekend Sixer: High-Octane Picks for NFL and College Football

Alright fellas, time to dive in. These first few weeks are where the books are still guessing, and that’s where we cook. ATSWins is running the sims nonstop, pulling every angle from pace to protection breakdowns, so we’re not just leaning on vibes or hot takes. Think of it as having a cheat code while everyone else is still trying to read the box score. The point isn’t swinging at every line — it’s finding the spots where the numbers and the eye test actually meet. Grab a seat, lock in, and let’s talk through where the value really sits this week.

Texans vs. Jaguars — Pick: Under 44

Houston’s offense has sputtered out of the gate (league-low 14.0 PPG and just 265.5 yards per game through two weeks), and they’ve yet to punch in a red-zone TD—classic ingredients for an Under, especially in a divisional game with familiarity. Even with possible WR reinforcements (Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios trending back), the Texans’ passing game has been choppy, and a healthier O-line is still settling in. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has leaned on the run under Liam Coen, a pace/tempo profile that can bleed clock at home. Recent head-to-head has been tight and modestly scored—24–20 and 23–20 (totals of 44 and 43) last season—landing right around this number. Market totals have opened/hovered in the 43.5–44.5 band, so grabbing 44 aligns with the matchup: struggling Houston finish rate, run-centric Jags, and divisional familiarity that compresses possessions.

Chiefs at Giants — Pick: Giants +6

Both teams are 0–2, but the spot favors a home dog that just hung 450 passing yards on Dallas with Russell Wilson and now gets Sunday night at MetLife. Market is sitting around KC -6 to -6.5 with a total ~45.5, so +6 is near consensus but not a bad number. New York’s biggest swing factor is LT Andrew Thomas: he practiced this week and is trending toward a game-time decision after last year’s Lisfranc surgery—if he’s in, it stabilizes protection that cratered without him. Kansas City’s injury sheet isn’t spotless either: DE Mike Danna (quad) and CB Kristian Fulton (ankle) have missed time, OT Jawaan Taylor has been limited, and WR Xavier Worthy has been managing a shoulder. The Chiefs remain rightful favorites, but between their 0–2 start, some defensive absences, and New York’s offensive pulse last week, the Giants catching a full six at home is defendable—especially if Thomas suits up. Edge to Giants +6 with the caveat that Thomas’ status is worth a final check before kickoff.

Cowboys vs Bears — Pick: Bears moneyline

Backing Chicago here isn’t crazy. Dallas’s defense, especially in the secondary, has looked shaky and has given up explosive plays through the air. That’s exactly where Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, and DJ Moore can make them pay if the Bears get into rhythm. Soldier Field also gives Chicago a boost, as the grass surface tends to slow down Dallas’s speed advantage. On the other side, the Cowboys’ offensive line is still adjusting without Cooper Beebe at center, which could open the door for Chicago’s front to generate pressure. Even with injuries on defense, the Bears can simplify things, focus on taking the ball away, and turn this into a game decided by a few key plays. If they protect Williams and finish drives, there’s a real shot Chicago cashes the moneyline.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers — Pick: Nebraska moneyline

Nebraska’s live underdog case is real: the Huskers are 3–0 with a balanced, explosive offense (top-10 nationally in scoring and total offense through three games) and a stingy pass defense that has yet to allow a 20-yard completion this season, albeit vs. a soft non-conference slate. They get Michigan in Lincoln, where the crowd noise should challenge true-freshman QB Bryce Underwood in his second hostile-road test, and Michigan will again be without head coach Sherrone Moore (Biff Poggi is the interim), a game-management wrinkle that matters in a projected one-score game (UM around -1.5 to -2.5 on the road). Nebraska’s secondary health is trending up (Malcolm Hartzog and Javin Wright expected back), though CB Blye Hill is out for the year. On the other side, Michigan’s offense has leaned on the run with Justice Haynes while Underwood has been up-and-down, and there are interior OL question marks noted this week. With Nebraska’s QB Dylan Raiola operating an accurate short-to-intermediate passing attack (Huskers leading the nation in completion rate through three games) and a defense that’s been lights-out against the pass, the home dog setup plus coaching absence tilts me to go with Nebraska moneyline. 

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Memphis Tigers — Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks -7.5

Arkansas -7.5 is playable. The Hogs bring the better top-end talent and QB edge into Memphis: Taylen Green has been explosive through three games (866 pass yards, 11 TDs, plus a team-high 307 rush yards), giving Arkansas multiple ways to stress a Tigers defense that hasn’t faced SEC speed yet. Memphis is 3–0 but the schedule has been soft, and even local coverage has flagged run-fit and physicality concerns that a downhill Arkansas ground game can exploit. On availability, Arkansas CB Kani Walker (concussion) is trending as uncertain after being carted off vs. Ole Miss, while Memphis is down starting safety Kourtlan Marsh for the season and has RB Greg Desrosiers Jr. banged up, secondary depth and early-down punch could both be issues if the Hogs get rolling. Historically, these programs haven’t met since the 1990s (Memphis up 3–2 over a five-game stretch), so there’s little meaningful H2H signal for 2025; current form matters more, and Arkansas’ dual-threat ceiling plus Memphis’ defensive injuries tilt this toward a one score plus Hogs win.

Texas Tech vs Utah Utes — Pick: Texas Tech +3.5

Texas Tech vs Utah Utes — Pick: Texas Tech +3.5Texas Tech is live to cover in Salt Lake City. The Red Raiders arrive 3–0 behind Behren Morton (923 pass yds through three games) with Coy Eakin emerging as his top target, giving Tech the higher-ceiling passing game in this matchup. Utah’s defense is legit, but it will be shorthanded: the Utes ruled out DB Rabbit Evans, WR Dadren Zipperer, S Josh Sovereign, and OL Isaiah Garcia for this game, while Texas Tech’s longer list skews toward depth and a couple of OL pieces already known to be out; key rush threats like Romello Height are listed probable. It’s also the first meeting since the early ’70s (series 2–0 Tech), so there’s no recent familiarity advantage. With both teams ranked (Utah ~16, Tech ~17) and unbeaten, the numbers point to a one-score game; taking the +3.5 with the healthier passing offense is the move. 

Bonus Pick: Lions vs. Ravens — Amon-Ra St. Brown UNDER 6.5 receptions

Detroit’s alpha just posted a 9-115-3 eruption vs. Chicago, but his 2025 log is 4 and 9 catches (13 total through two games, 6.5 per game), so this number sits right on his early-season average. The matchup tilts under: Baltimore’s defense has kept opponents’ completions depressed (14 vs. BUF in Week 1 and 19 vs. CLE in Week 2), a byproduct of their zone-heavy, two-high looks that rally and tackle—philosophically designed to cap reception volume. Marlon Humphrey practiced fully after exiting last week, strengthening outside coverage, while Detroit could be shorthanded up front (OT Taylor Decker DNP), both factors that can lower Jared Goff’s efficiency and overall attempts on the road.  The one caution: in their 2023 meeting, game script forced 53 Goff attempts and St. Brown caught 13—an over-killer if Detroit trails big again—but that was an outlier fueled by extreme negative script. Net-net, with Baltimore suppressing catch totals and Detroit spreading targets to LaPorta/Jameson/Gibbs, UNDER 6.5 receptions is very likely 

That’s the slate, and it’s all about picking our spots. Early season lines always leave cracks, and that’s where ATSWins does the heavy lifting — breaking down every snap, every trend, and every matchup so you don’t have to sweat the noise. Stay disciplined, trust the process, and let the data do the work. We’ll be back with more as the weeks roll on, but for now, enjoy the games, and let’s make it a winning weekend.

For more NFL and College Football Predictions, go to the predictions page on atswins.ai