Shannons Weekend Sixer: High-Octane Picks for NFL and College Football
Last week’s 4–2 run already put followers in the plus, and this week lines up to keep building that stack. The key is consistency, hitting the right numbers before they move and trusting the matchups that actually create margin. I leaned on ATSWins again this week to help spot the best value plays, and the numbers back up where the edges sit. If you’ve been tailing, you’re already ahead. If not, you’ve still got time to jump on while the value is there. The units are adding up, and the goal is simple: stay disciplined, keep cashing, and keep growing the bankroll week after week. Now let’s get into the picks.
NCAAF Picks
Buffalo -21.5 vs. Kent State
Buffalo looks like the right side here. The Bulls are coming off a dominant 45–6 win over Saint Francis (PA) where QB Ta’Quan Roberson threw three touchdowns and the run game leaned on Al-Jay Henderson to control tempo. Even in their loss at Minnesota, Buffalo’s defense held up well and the offense moved the ball respectably against a Big Ten front. Kent State, on the other hand, barely scraped by Merrimack (an FCS program) and then got buried 62–14 by Texas Tech, averaging just 1.9 yards per carry in that game. They’ve struggled to establish any rhythm offensively and their defense has been leaky against FBS opponents. The head-to-head also favors Buffalo—they crushed Kent State 43–7 last year and the market has already moved the line into the -22/-22.5 range, so locking in -21.5 gives an edge. With Buffalo’s run first approach and stronger defensive core against a rebuilding Kent State roster, the Bulls are in a good spot to cover this number.
Navy -14 vs Tulsa
Navy checks every “lay the points” box right now: 2–0 with a 52–7 opening win over VMI and a 38–24 conference win vs UAB, powered by 759 rushing yards across two games and pristine red zone efficiency (11-for-11 this season after leading the nation in red-zone TD rate in 2024). QB Blake Horvath has been hyper-efficient (career 172.6 passer rating) while the Alex Tecza/Eli Heidenreich duo keeps popping explosive plays. Tulsa is 1–1 after falling 21–14 at New Mexico State and turning to redshirt freshman QB Baylor Hayes midgame; their defense has flashed a pass rush (7 sacks in two games) and held NMSU to 39 rushing yards, but Navy’s option looks and volume run game are a different ask than ACU/NMSU. Historically, the venue favors the Mids: Navy leads the series 8–2 and Tulsa has never beaten Navy in Tulsa (Navy 5–0 there). Given Navy’s current form (five-game win streak dating to 2024), elite ground identity, and Tulsa’s unsettled QB situation with a first-year head coach, I’m siding with the proven machine to create margin. Lay the 14 with Navy.
App State vs Southern Miss +3.5
Southern Miss has a real chance to stay inside this number at home. Quarterback Braylon Braxton has been efficient through two games, completing nearly 67% of his passes with 5 touchdowns to just 1 interception, and the Golden Eagles’ offense showed life in their bounce-back win over Jackson State. App State’s offense has looked strong under AJ Swann, but they’ve also been sloppy with turnovers and penalties, including four giveaways against Lindenwood, which can open the door for an underdog cover. The Golden Eagles get the added boost of playing in Hattiesburg, where crowd energy should help them hang around. With the spread at +3.5, Southern Miss doesn’t even need the outright win, keeping it close or losing by a field goal cashes the ticket, and given App State’s inconsistencies, that path feels very live.
NFL Picks
Patriots vs Dolphins (ML)
Miami is in a classic bounce back spot at home after a 33–8 dud at Indy, while New England also comes in off a 20–13 loss to Las Vegas with a QB that’s still settling in. The matchup edges lean Miami: the Dolphins are 8–2 vs. New England since 2020 and 5–0 at home in that span, and they host this one at Hard Rock on Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET). New England’s secondary and pass rush take a hit with CB Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) and DE Keion White (illness) ruled out, a rough setup against Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle, and there’s additional defensive staff disruption with DC Terrell Williams out. Offensively, the Patriots were one-dimensional in Week 1 (53 dropbacks, just 13 RB carries) and scored 13 points; Drake Maye had 287 yards but also a costly INT, which won’t get easier on the road. Meanwhile, even after the Week 1 flop, Miami’s talent baseline with Tua, Hill, Waddle, and Achane remains high, and recent form against this opponent plus the Pats’ injuries tip the probability toward a Dolphins ML play.
Broncos (ML) vs. Colts
Denver’s defense looked legit in Week 1 (20–12 over Tennessee, 135 total yards allowed, five sacks per reports), and Indy’s secondary is banged up heading into Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium (both starting CBs Charvarius Ward and Jaylon Jones ruled out; rookie EDGE Laiatu Latu questionable). That matchup tilt matters because Bo Nix’s top trio — Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Marvin Mims Jr. — all logged heavy snaps and Sutton produced 6/61/1 in the opener, giving Denver enough vertical punch to stress depleted corners.The Colts were excellent in their opener (33–8 over Miami) and the venue is Lucas Oil (Sunday, Sept. 14), but with their cornerback room thinned and Denver’s defense trending up, the Broncos are live to grind out a road win. Historically this series is fairly even, so current form and injuries carry more weight than H2H.
Seahawks vs. Steelers -3
Pittsburgh’s home opener sets up well for the Steelers: Aaron Rodgers just debuted with a clean, vintage line (22-of-30, 244 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT) in a 34–32 win, and now gets a banged-up Seattle defense that had multiple key starters miss Thursday’s practice (DBs Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon; DT Jarran Reed), while Pittsburgh’s own secondary depth is monitoring CB Joey Porter Jr. (hamstring) and S DeShon Elliott (knee, reportedly out Week 2). Seattle’s Week 1 offense struggled to run (47 rush yards for Zach Charbonnet) and was out of rhythm under the new OC, which is a rough lead-in against T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith in a loud home opener. The travel/body-clock angle is a 10 a.m. PT kick for Seattle, though the Seahawks note they’ve handled early kicks well in recent years still, Pittsburgh’s pass game plus defensive front, healthier overall roster, and home field tilt this toward laying the short number. Recent history leans slightly Pittsburgh too (Steelers have won the last two meetings, including 30–23 in 2023). Steelers -3 is the move.
Bonus Pick: Nick Chubb (HOU) Anytime TD
Nick Chubb is already looking like the go-to guy in Houston’s backfield, leading the team in carries and yards in Week 1. With Joe Mixon sidelined, Chubb’s role is only getting bigger, and you can expect him to get most of the red-zone work. Tampa Bay’s defense is no pushover—they just bottled up Atlanta’s run game and only gave up a rushing score to the quarterback. Still, this game is in Houston under the lights on Monday Night Football, and with C.J. Stroud under a lot of pressure last week, the Texans may lean on Chubb at the goal line. The volume and opportunity are there, so backing Chubb to punch one in feels like a solid play, even if the matchup isn’t the softest.
All told, this week’s slate lines up with plenty of opportunity, and the combination of matchup edges, injury angles, and market movement gives us spots worth locking in before the numbers shift any further. Backing these plays with ATSWins behind the research means we’re not just guessing, we’re leaning on data and proven reads that already paid off with last week’s 4–2 run. If you’ve been following along, you’re already in the green, and if not, now’s the perfect time to jump in. The goal stays the same: keep stacking wins, keep stacking units, and let the season momentum carry the bankroll higher week after week.