Daily Betting Value Report 9-17-2025

Posted Sept. 17, 2025, 8:20 a.m. by Keith KC Carrion 1 min read

ATSwins.ai

Daily Betting Value Report – September 17, 2025

## MLB Schedule
- Cubs @ Pirates on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 09:35 AM PDT
- Reds @ Cardinals on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 10:15 AM PDT
- Orioles @ White Sox on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 11:10 AM PDT
- Giants @ Diamondbacks on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 12:40 PM PDT
- Braves @ Nationals on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 01:05 PM PDT
- Guardians @ Tigers on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 03:40 PM PDT
- Athletics @ Red Sox on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 03:45 PM PDT
- Blue Jays @ Rays on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 04:05 PM PDT
- Padres @ Mets on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 04:10 PM PDT
- Yankees @ Twins on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 04:40 PM PDT
- Angels @ Brewers on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 04:40 PM PDT
- Mariners @ Royals on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 04:40 PM PDT
- Rangers @ Astros on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 05:10 PM PDT
- Marlins @ Rockies on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 05:40 PM PDT
- Phillies @ Dodgers on Wednesday, Sep 17, 2025 at 07:10 PM PDT

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📊 Value Table – All Sports Today

(MLB only has games today. Moneylines & times for Wed, Sep 17, 2025. Implied % = American odds → win probability. Season Pythag% uses MLB exponent 1.83.)
Sources: schedules (above widget), odds board (consensus) and lines per CBS Sports; probable pitchers per MLB.com; team RS/RA per MLB standings.

Key: Value Gap = Team Season Pythag% − Implied % (positive = value)

Matchup (Start) Odds Implied % Season Pythag % Value Gap

Cubs @ Pirates (12:35 ET)    CHC -152 / PIT +127    CHC 60.3 / PIT 44.1    CHC 58.7 / PIT 43.9    CHC -1.6 / PIT -0.2
Reds @ Cardinals (1:15 ET)    CIN -117 / STL -102    CIN 53.9 / STL 50.5    CIN 51.5 / STL 46.4    CIN -2.4 / STL -4.1
Orioles @ White Sox (2:10 ET)    BAL -129 / CWS +109    BAL 56.3 / CWS 47.9    BAL 55.6 / CWS 41.1    BAL -0.7 / CWS -6.8
Giants @ D-backs (3:40 ET)    SF -106 / ARI -113    SF 51.5 / ARI 53.0    SF 51.1 / ARI 51.9    SF -0.4 / ARI -1.1
Braves @ Nationals (4:05 ET)    ATL -153 / WSH +128    ATL 60.4 / WSH 43.9    ATL 48.0 / WSH 38.4    ATL -12.4 / WSH -5.5
Guardians @ Tigers (6:40 ET)    CLE +124 / DET -148    CLE 44.6 / DET 59.7    CLE 48.0 / DET 56.2    CLE +3.4 / DET -3.5
Athletics @ Red Sox (6:45 ET)    OAK +148 / BOS -178    OAK 40.3 / BOS 64.0    OAK 45.8 / BOS 41.2    OAK +5.5 / BOS -22.8
Blue Jays @ Rays (7:05 ET)    TOR -130 / TB +108    TOR 56.5 / TB 48.1    TOR 55.6 / TB 53.3    TOR -0.9 / TB +5.2
Padres @ Mets (7:10 ET)    SD -105 / NYM -114    SD 51.2 / NYM 53.3    SD 54.3 / NYM 51.5    SD +3.1 / NYM -1.8
Yankees @ Twins (7:40 ET)    NYY -175 / MIN +146    NYY 63.6 / MIN 40.7    NYY 57.7 / MIN 44.5    NYY -5.9 / MIN +3.8
Mariners @ Royals (7:40 ET)    SEA -104 / KC -115    SEA 49.0 / KC 53.5    SEA 53.9 / KC 48.5    SEA +4.9 / KC -5.0
Angels @ Brewers (7:40 ET)    Off board    —    MIL season Pythag strong; LAA weak    —
Rangers @ Astros (8:10 ET)    TEX -126 / HOU +106    TEX 55.8 / HOU 48.5    TEX 56.8 / HOU 51.7    TEX +1.0 / HOU +3.2
Marlins @ Rockies (8:40 ET)    MIA -163 / COL +136    MIA 62.0 / COL 42.4    MIA 53.4 / COL 38.4    MIA -8.6 / COL -4.0
Phillies @ Dodgers (10:10 ET)    PHI +123 / LAD -146    PHI 44.8 / LAD 59.3    PHI 58.6 / LAD 57.5    PHI +13.8 / LAD -1.8

> Notes: Odds shown are the current consensus snapshot (CBS board). Pitching probables per MLB.com (see section below). Standings-based RS/RA used for Pythagorean expectation.

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🎯 Pitching / Key Player Matchups

PHI @ LAD — Jesús Luzardo (LHP, PHI, 14–6, 4.03 ERA) vs Blake Snell (LHP, LAD, 4–4, 2.79 ERA). Snell fanned 11 in last start; Luzardo just crossed 200 K. Lefty-lefty duel favors whichever lineup handles LHP better.

OAK @ BOS — Mason Barnett (RHP, OAK) vs Lucas Giolito (RHP, BOS). Clear name-brand edge to Giolito; Barnett (small MLB sample) volatile.

TOR @ TB — Kevin Gausman (RHP, TOR) vs Ian Seymour (LHP, TB). Rays get a lefty look at a road-favorite ace.

CLE @ DET — Gavin Williams (RHP, CLE, 3.16 ERA) vs Jack Flaherty (RHP, DET, 4.69 ERA). Guardians on 9–1 run entering today.

SEA @ KC — Bryce Miller (RHP, SEA) vs Cole Ragans (LHP, KC). Seattle enters on a 10-game win streak (Raleigh red-hot).

TEX @ HOU — Jacob deGrom (RHP, TEX) vs Cristian Javier (RHP, HOU) — premium marquee matchup.

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📊 Runs/Points Scored & Allowed – Form & Trend

(Season totals via MLB standings; recent form via L10 trends.)

PHI @ LAD

Season RS/RA: PHI 743/614; LAD 773/656.

L10: PHI 8–2 (W2); LAD 6–4 (L2). Trend: PHI ↑, LAD →.

SEA @ KC

Season RS/RA: SEA 717/659; KC 582/601.

L10: SEA 10–0; KC 3–7. Trend: SEA ↑, KC ↓.

CLE @ DET

Season RS/RA: CLE 587/616; DET 734/641.

L10: CLE 9–1; DET 4–6. Trend: CLE ↑, DET →/↓.

TOR @ TB

Season RS/RA: TOR 757/669; TB 673/626.

L10: TOR 7–3 (W6); TB 2–8 (L3). Trend: TOR ↑, TB ↓ (but pricing favors TB).

OAK @ BOS

Season RS/RA: OAK 696/765; BOS 641/779.

L10: OAK 7–3; BOS 3–7. Trend: OAK ↑, BOS ↓.

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⚾ Platoon or Situational Splits

PHI @ LAD — Dodgers are typically strong vs LHP; however, the price over-credits LAD relative to season-long run profile differential (PHI +129 vs LAD +117 run diff). Situational: PHI recent form (8–2) vs LAD skid (L2). Label: Advantage: PHI (situational/value).

TOR @ TB — Seymour LHP gives TB the platoon angle at home; TOR favorite vs a lefty on the road — market premium. Label: Advantage: TB (platoon + price).

CLE @ DET — Guardians offense trending up during 9–1 stretch; pitching edge with Williams’ 3.16 ERA. Label: Advantage: CLE (situational + SP).

SEA @ KC — SEA’s form (W10) offsets Ragans’ ace quality. Label: Neutral → slight SEA (form).

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🔥 Top 3 Value Picks (by Season Pythag vs Implied %)

1. Phillies +123 at Dodgers — Implied: 44.8% | Pythag: 58.6% | Value Gap: +13.8%.
Notes: Luzardo 200+ K; PHI recent form strong; price inflated by Snell & Dodger tax. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐.

2. Athletics +148 at Red Sox — Implied: 40.3% | Pythag: 45.8% | Value Gap: +5.5%.
Notes: Boston’s season run profile is worse than OAK’s; Giolito name value bloats the line. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐.

3. Rays +108 vs Blue Jays — Implied: 48.1% | Pythag: 53.3% | Value Gap: +5.2%.
Notes: Home dog vs road ace; lefty Seymour adds a platoon wrinkle. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐.

Near-miss / honorable mentions:

Mariners -104 at Royals (+4.9% gap; form rocket-hot).

Guardians +124 at Tigers (+3.4% gap; recent hot streak + SP edge).

Padres -105 at Mets (+3.1% gap; slight edge vs market).

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🏷️ Double Edge Tag (Value + Situational/Platoon)

Guardians +124 at Tigers — DOUBLE EDGE

Value Gap: +3.4% (48.0% Pythag vs 44.6% implied).

Situational: Guardians 9–1 last 10; Williams (3.16 ERA) vs Flaherty (4.69 ERA).

Why it matters: Price hasn’t fully caught up to CLE form + pitching.

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🏆 Best Bet of the Day

Phillies +123 at Dodgers — Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)

Implied %: 44.8% (price as underdog).

Pythagorean %: 58.6% (season RS/RA profile).

Advantage: Market over-weights Snell & home field; PHI’s overall run profile (+129 diff) outstrips LAD (+117), and Luzardo enters in strikeout form.

Why Mispriced: Brand/pricing gravity toward LAD + Snell; numbers say coin-flip or better for PHI.

Flag to monitor: Dodgers’ lineup is strong vs LHP; consider live/FF5 hedges if Luzardo command wavers early.

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