Crushing the Lines: Best Value Betting Matchups for College Football Week 4 2025

College football Week 4 is here, and it’s one of those quirky weekends where the action begins early with a pair of Friday night games before rolling into a Saturday slate stacked with Top 25 matchups. If you’re hunting for edges, this is the perfect spot — a blend of high-profile clashes, lopsided spreads, and a few sneaky underdog opportunities hiding in plain sight.

As always, we’re focused on value: where the sportsbook line and the fair line don’t quite match, where injuries and weather matter more than the public realizes, and where history, trends, and advanced metrics push us toward sharper plays. This week, we’ll also include projected final scores for every Top 25 Saturday matchup so you can see how the numbers translate to the scoreboard.

Thursday & Friday Night Spotlight (Unranked but Important)

Tulsa at Oklahoma State (Friday, Sep 19)

• Sportsbook Spread: Oklahoma State -12.5
• Fair Spread: Oklahoma State -8.5
• Total: 54.5
• Projected Score: Oklahoma State 31, Tulsa 24

The Storyline: OSU was humiliated by Oregon (69–3) and looks to bounce back with backup QB Zane Flores. Tulsa’s run game led by Dominic Richardson (296 yards, 4 TDs) has been effective. OSU still has better athletes, but depth is thin at QB.

Lean: Tulsa +13.

Iowa at Rutgers (Friday, Sep 19)

• Sportsbook Spread: Iowa -4.5
• Fair Spread: Iowa -6.0
• Total: ~45
• Projected Score: Iowa 20, Rutgers 13

The Storyline: Iowa’s defense has allowed just 12.3 ppg. Rutgers’ offense is hampered by injuries to OT Tyler Needham, RB CJ Campbell, and WR Ian Strong.

Lean: Iowa -4.5 and Under.

Saturday: Top 25 Matchups

(17) Texas Tech at (16) Utah — 11:00 AM

• Line/Total: Utah -3.5, 57.5
• Fair Spread: Utah -4.0
• Projected Score: Utah 31, Texas Tech 27

Key Factors: Utah QB Devon Dampier (5 TDs, 71% comp) vs Tech QB Behren Morton (9 TDs, 5 INTs). Utah’s run defense (3.3 YPC allowed) is the difference.

Lean: Utah -3.

UAB at (15) Tennessee — 11:45 AM

• Line/Total: Tennessee -38.5, 69.5
• Fair Spread: -36.0
• Projected Score: Tennessee 52, UAB 17

Key Factors: QB Nico Iamaleava already has 14 TDs. UAB defense is bottom-30 nationally.

Lean: Pass. UAB +41 if available.

Oregon State at (6) Oregon — 2:00 PM

• Line/Total: Oregon -35.5, 55.5
• Fair Spread: -32.0
• Projected Score: Oregon 45, Oregon State 13

Key Factors: Oregon QB Dante Moore (10 TD, 1 INT, 74% comp) is in rhythm. OSU offense averaging only 17.3 ppg.

Lean: Pass preflop; look for live 2H under.

Purdue at (24) Notre Dame — 2:30 PM

• Line/Total: ND -25.5, 54.5
• Fair Spread: -21.5
• Projected Score: Notre Dame 38, Purdue 20

Key Factors: Freshman QB CJ Carr (8 TD, 2 INT) has poise, but ND’s secondary is banged up (Moore Q, Shuler out).

Lean: Purdue +27 or Over 54.

(21) Michigan at Nebraska — 2:30 PM

• Line/Total: Michigan -2.5, 46.5
• Fair Spread: PK
• Projected Score: Nebraska 23, Michigan 20

Key Factors: Michigan QB Alex Orji has been turnover-prone. Nebraska defense ranks top 20 nationally.

Lean: Nebraska +3 or ML.

Kent State at (7) Florida State — 2:30 PM

• Line/Total: FSU -44.5, 56.5
• Fair Spread: -41.0
• Projected Score: FSU 49, Kent State 10

Key Factors: QB Brock Glenn (8 TD, 0 INT) leads an efficient offense. Kent allows 6.2 YPP.

Lean: Kent State +45.5 if available.

Tulane at (13) Ole Miss — 2:30 PM

• Line/Total: Ole Miss -10.5, 60.5
• Fair Spread: -11.0
• Projected Score: Ole Miss 38, Tulane 27

Key Factors: QB Jaxson Dart (11 TDs) and RB Quinshon Judkins (5 TDs) headline the Rebels’ attack.

Lean: Ole Miss -10.5.

(22) Auburn at (11) Oklahoma — 2:30 PM

• Line/Total: Oklahoma -6.5, 47.5
• Fair Spread: -4.0
• Projected Score: Oklahoma 24, Auburn 23

Key Factors: Auburn QB Jackson Arnold has 7 total TDs and no turnovers. OU LT Fasusi (ankle) status crucial.

Lean: Auburn +7. Under 49 if rain.

Temple at (18) Georgia Tech — 3:30 PM

• Line/Total: GT -23.5, 51.5
• Fair Spread: -24.0
• Projected Score: Georgia Tech 37, Temple 14

Key Factors: QB Haynes King (11 TDs, 2 INTs) vs a Temple offense averaging only 13.7 ppg.

Lean: Pass.

South Carolina at (23) Missouri — 6:00 PM

• Line/Total: Missouri -10.5, 48.5
• Fair Spread: -9.0 (Sellers plays) / -13.0 (if out)
• Projected Score: Missouri 28, South Carolina 17 (if Sellers out)

Key Factors: QB LaNorris Sellers (concussion protocol) is the swing factor.

Lean: Mizzou -10.5 only if Sellers sits.

Florida at (4) Miami — 6:30 PM

• Line/Total: Miami -7.5, 51.5
• Fair Spread: -7.0
• Projected Score: Miami 27, Florida 20

Key Factors: Miami QB Emory Williams (9 TD, 1 INT) vs Florida QB Graham Mertz. Gators’ DL thinned by Caleb Banks’ injury.

Lean: Florida +7.5 pre; Miami live if -6.5 appears.

(9) Illinois at (19) Indiana — 6:30 PM

• Line/Total: Indiana -5.5, 52.5
• Fair Spread: -2.5
• Projected Score: Illinois 26, Indiana 24

Key Factors: Illini defense top-10 in yards allowed. Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke (9 TDs) faces stiffest test.

Lean: Illinois +6 or ML.

Georgia State at (20) Vanderbilt — 6:30 PM

• Line/Total: Vanderbilt -27.5, 53.5
• Fair Spread: -24.0
• Projected Score: Vanderbilt 41, Georgia State 17

Key Factors: QB AJ Swann (7 TDs, 2 INTs) steady, but Commodore defense gives up 390 ypg.

Lean: Georgia State +28.

SE Louisiana at (3) LSU — 6:45 PM

• Line/Total: LSU -41 (FCS), total varies
• Fair Spread: -37.0
• Projected Score: LSU 45, SE Louisiana 7

Key Factors: QB Garrett Nussmeier (12 TD, 2 INT) steady. WR Nabers questionable.

Lean: LSU 1H line only.

Sam Houston at (8) Texas — 7:00 PM

• Line/Total: Texas -40.5, 51.5
• Fair Spread: -38.0
• Projected Score: Texas 49, Sam Houston 7

Key Factors: QB Arch Manning (11 TDs, 76% comp) is torching defenses. Sam Houston scores just 12.3 ppg.

Lean: Texas 1H if < -21.

Michigan State at (25) USC — 10:00 PM

• Line/Total: USC -17.5, 56.5
• Fair Spread: -19.0
• Projected Score: USC 35, Michigan State 17

Key Factors: USC QB Miller Moss (13 TDs) and WR Zachariah Branch (5 TDs) headline vs a shaky MSU defense.

Lean: USC -17, not -17.5.

Bye Week Teams (Future Angles)

• (1) Ohio State
• (2) Penn State
• (5) Georgia
• (10) Texas A&M
• (12) Iowa State
• (14) Alabama

Final Betting Card (Value-First Leans)

• Tulsa +13 (Friday)
• Iowa -4.5 (Friday)
• Utah -3 (Saturday)
• Auburn +7 at Oklahoma
• Nebraska +3 or ML
• Illinois +6 or ML
• Purdue +27 or Over 54 (if ND DBs out)
• Missouri -10.5 (only if Sellers out)
• LSU 1H vs SE Louisiana
• USC -17 (not 17.5)

Wrap-Up

Week 4 brings everything: ugly blowouts, sneaky live unders, rivalry volatility, and three true value dogs in Auburn, Illinois, and Nebraska. The Thursday/Friday slate whets the appetite with edges on Tulsa and Iowa, and Saturday’s card demands patience — the best bets are on key numbers (+3, +7, +6) where you can extract maximum value.

Projected scores help illustrate just how narrow many of these margins are — and why discipline on entry points matters more than ever.