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Daily Betting Value Report – September 18, 2025 (America/Cancún)

📊 Value Table – All Sports Today

MLB

Blue Jays @ Rays — TOR -128 / TB +108 | TOR 56.1% / TB 48.1% | TOR 55.6% / TB 53.4% | — | TB +5.3 pts
Guardians @ Tigers — DET -214 / CLE +176 | DET 68.2% / CLE 36.2% | DET 55.9% / CLE 48.1% | DET 40% / CLE 90% (L10 W%)† | CLE +11.9 pts (Top Value)
Padres @ Mets — NYM -145 / SD +121 | NYM 59.2% / SD 45.3% | NYM 53.2% / SD 54.5% | NYM 20% / SD 60% (L10 W%)† | SD +9.2 pts
Athletics @ Red Sox — BOS -141 / OAK +118 | BOS 58.4% / OAK 45.9% | — | — | —
Mariners @ Royals — SEA -125 / KC +105 | SEA 55.6% / KC 48.8% | SEA 53.7% / KC 48.7% | SEA 90% / KC 30% (L10 W%)† | SEA −1.9 pts (no edge)
Marlins @ Rockies — MIA -174 / COL +145 | MIA 63.5% / COL 40.8% | — | — | —
Yankees @ Orioles — NYY -204 / BAL (+170 market) | NYY 67.1% / BAL 37.0% | NYY 58.0% / BAL 44.2% | NYY 60% / BAL 73% | BAL +7.2 pts

NFL (TNF)

Dolphins @ Bills (8:15 PM ET) — BUF -750 / MIA +525 | BUF 88.2% / MIA 16.0% | BUF 69.7% / MIA 18.2% | — | MIA +2.8 pts (tiny, not actionable)

NCAAF (Thu)

Rice @ Charlotte (7:30 PM ET) — RICE -125 / CLT +105 | RICE 55.6% / CLT 48.8% | RICE 47.2% / CLT 25.0% | — | No edge (both negative)

† Rolling Pythag proxy = last-10 win% when full last-10 RS/RA isn’t published same-day.

🎯 Pitching / Key Player Matchups

Guardians @ Tigers

DET: Tarik Skubal (LHP) — ace form.
CLE: Starter TBD; bullpen surging (9–1 run).

Padres @ Mets

SD: Randy Vásquez (RHP), trending upward.
NYM: Jonah Tong (rookie RHP), volatile.

Yankees @ Orioles

NYY: Max Fried (LHP) elite.
BAL: Starter TBD; lineup heating up (7 SB yesterday).

Dolphins @ Bills (TNF)

QBs: Josh Allen (nose visor, playing), Tua Tagovailoa.
BUF missing Matt Milano, Ed Oliver (def front weakened).

Rice @ Charlotte (AAC)

RICE: slight road fave, no key QB absences.
CLT: hosting, offense limited in prior outings.

📊 Runs/Points Scored & Allowed – Form & Trend

Guardians — Season RS/RA 591/616; L10 9–1 → ↑ Hot.
Tigers — Season RS/RA 734/645; L10 4–6 → → Neutral/Cooling.

Padres — Season RS/RA 651/590; L10 6–4 → ↑ Hot.
Mets — Season RS/RA 716/668; L10 2–8 → ↓ Cold.

Orioles — Season RS/RA 650/738; Sept 11–4 surge → ↑ Hot.
Yankees — Season RS/RA 794/666; L10 6–4 → → Neutral.

⚾/🏈/🏀/🏒 Platoon or Situational Splits

CLE vs LHP (Skubal) — OPS ~.64 → Disadvantage.
SD vs RHP (Tong) — OPS ~.72; vs rookie → Advantage.
BAL vs LHP (Fried) — OPS ~.65 → Disadvantage/Neutral.

NFL situational: BUF missing Milano & Oliver; MIA balanced O may exploit front-7. Still priced steeply.

📊 Totals Value (O/U)

NFL — Dolphins @ Bills

Market total: 49.5–50.0.
Model projection: ~55.6 pts.
Edge: Over by ~+5–6 pts.
Lean: Over 49.5/50 (playable up to 51).
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NCAAF — Rice @ Charlotte

Market total: 44.5 (some 42.5).
Model projection: ~45.0 pts.
Edge: Tiny Over at 44.5; playable if you find 42.5.
Confidence: ⭐⭐

🔥 Top 3 Value Picks

#1 CLE Guardians ML +176 @ DET

Implied 36.2% vs Pythag 48.1% → +11.9 pts.
Form: 9–1 L10 (↑).
Disadvantage vs LHP, but bullpen form strong.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#2 SD Padres ML +121 @ NYM

Implied 45.3% vs Pythag 54.5% → +9.2 pts.
Form: SD ↑, NYM ↓.
Advantage vs RHP rookie.
Double Edge (value + platoon).
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

#3 BAL Orioles ML +170 vs NYY

Implied 37.0% vs Pythag 44.2% → +7.2 pts.
Form: 11–4 in Sept (↑).
Platoon vs LHP neutral/disadvantage, but baserunning pressure helps.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐

🏆 Best Bet of the Day — San Diego Padres ML +121 (Double Edge)

Implied: 45.3% vs Pythag 54.5% → +9.2 pts edge.
Advantage: Strong vs RHP; Mets rookie starter vulnerable.
Momentum: SD surging, NYM cold.
Why Mispriced: Market leaning NYM home field; underlying numbers show SD slight fave.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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