Predicting College Football Playoff rankings after Week 12: How will SEC be sorted out?

There wasnt too much drama within the top five of the College Football Playoff rankings during Week 12, thanks to No.

1 Oregons comeback at Wisconsin , but No.

6 BYU lost for the first time and No.

7 Tennessee fell on the road at Georgia to create some changes in the rest of the top 10.

I have been a bit confused by the selection committees ambiguous strength of schedule metrics, so I decided to look into it a little closer.

I believe the committees strength of schedule metric is based more on win-loss record of opponents than margin of victory.

Why is that important? Well, the strength of schedule metrics that I have been posting and the ones that you will see on ESPN during the CFP rankings show are based on margin of victory.

GO DEEPER College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Colorado favored to win Big 12, earn bye So when you saw Georgia outside the projected bracket last week despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the country, its because its opponents records arent as good as youd think.

For example, a win over 4-6 Kentucky a team that is ranked in the top-40 in my ratings might be seen as worse than a win over 7-3 Colorado State despite Kentucky likely being more than a touchdown favorite if those two teams played on a neutral field.

Its not a perfect process, but I needed to adjust my Playoff algorithms strength of schedule component to account for this.

So with that adjustment, lets take a stab at projecting the committees rankings for this week after having a so-so performance last week .

Next five: Missouri, Washington State, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville Biggest question: What to do with the logjam in the SEC? Last week, the committee ranked No.

10 Alabama ahead of No.

11 Ole Miss, which was ranked one spot ahead of No.

12 Georgia after the Rebels 28-10 head-to-head win.

Now, after Georgia took down Tennessee in Athens on Saturday, Tennessee enters the conversation as it falls from No.

7.

Advertisement Considering that Alabama and Ole Miss both have wins against Georgia, I think the Volunteers are likely to fall to the bottom of that group despite their win against Alabama.

Factor in that Tennessee was ranked below Indiana and BYU last week, and Id be shocked at anything otherwise.

Tennessee isnt out of the Playoff race , by any means, but it may need to root for some chaos elsewhere.

According to my projections model , the Vols have just a 34 percent chance of making the field, compared to 94 percent for Texas, 88 percent for Georgia, 76 percent for Alabama, 70 percent for Ole Miss and 14 percent for Texas A&M.

And if you think thats a tough scenario, root for Texas A&M to beat Texas in two weeks to create a six-team logjam .

Good luck, selection committee.

GO DEEPER Why the SEC could stuff the bracket: College Football Playoff Bubble Watch (Photo: Kevin C.

Cox / Getty Images).

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