College Football Playoff stock watch: Can BYU and Tennessee escape the bubble?

Editors note: This article is part of the College Football Stock Watch series, breaking down which teams are rising and falling in the Playoff race.

With only two more weeks left in the regular season, we are rapidly closing in on finding out which teams will be selected for the first 12-team College Football Playoff .

And though there may not be a huge rankings shake-up this week, we still saw some teams boost their stock and some tank theirs on Saturday.

Advertisement Georgia took down Tennessee in what could prove to be an elimination game for the Vols, barring some help.

Oregon was tested for 60 minutes in Madison , as Wisconsin almost disrupted the Playoff and Big Ten races.

And BYU fell to Kansas at home, spoiling its undefeated run late at night.

Lets take a look at which teams saw big changes in their Playoff stock this week, according to my projections model , in addition to checking in on the Group of 5 race for a bid.

GO DEEPER College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Colorado favored to win Big 12, earn bye Stock up Carson Beck played his best football of the season in throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns against Tennessee, and Georgia got back to looking like the team that lost a total of two games from 2021-23.

Becks play hasnt been up to the standard he set for himself in a productive 2023, but after he carved up a great Tennessee defense, you have to like Georgias chances of making a deep run in the Playoff.

Georgia has UMass and Georgia Tech left on the schedule, making it likely to finish the season with a 10-2 record.

The Tennessee game felt like a must-win for Georgia, as I have a hard time believing a three-loss team would secure an at-large bid with the Playoff picture forming as it is.

Georgia has the schedule as does Alabama to make a case, but I think three losses means elimination at this point.

Georgia still has a chance to win the SEC, though itll need Alabama to lose a game if it wants a shot at a first-round bye.

Either way, Georgia is in a good spot to at least get a home Playoff game by winning out, even if that could come down to who loses in conference championship games.

My current projections have Georgia as the No.

8 seed, hosting Notre Dame in the first round.

The Bulldogs have the fifth-best odds nationally to make the field at 88 percent, with the third-best odds to host a game at 53 percent.

Stock down This may be a bit controversial, but hear me out: Tennessee was 8-1 with a win over Alabama, and the committee ranked it behind undefeated Indiana and BYU , who were ranked behind two one-loss teams.

That does not bode well for the Volunteers in this weeks rankings .

The SEC has a handful of teams with two losses (Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia) that are in good position to grab at-large bids.

Tennessee is likely to fall below all three teams in Tuesday nights latest rankings after the loss to Georgia.

Thats not good for the Vols chances of getting an at-large spot.

Sure, I mentioned the win over Alabama, which is a great booster to their argument, but thats about all the Vols have on their resume to this point.

The committee obviously doesnt think they have a strong schedule because their only quality win is against the Crimson Tide.

Advertisement If youre a Tennessee fan, first you need the Vols to win out against UTEP and Vanderbilt but you also need other teams to lose to feel good about your chances.

My projections have Tennessee as the second team on the bubble behind SMU , with a 34 percent chance to make the field.

Thats down from as high as 54 percent a few weeks ago and 70 percent before the loss to Arkansas in early October.

GO DEEPER Tennessee blew it at Georgia, but Vols' College Football Playoff hopes are not blown Play with fire too many times and youre bound to get burned.

Thats exactly what happened to BYU.

The Cougars suffered a home loss to Kansas, which is better than its 4-6 record but is still quite a blemish on BYUs resume.

This comes after narrow wins against Utah and Oklahoma State.

BYU is no longer the favorite to win the Big 12, with a road trip to Arizona State and a home game against Houston left on the schedule.

That honor now belongs to Deion Sanders and Colorado , which has a 59 percent chance to win the conference.

The Buffaloes have rocketed from a 3 percent chance to make the Playoff when October began to a 36 percent last week and a 57 percent chance now.

BYU, meanwhile, fell from a 63 percent chance to make the Playoff to just 22 percent after losing to Kansas.

This isnt too shocking to me, as BYU has been the lowest-rated Playoff contender over the past few weeks in my rankings.

Sure, the Cougars have won games with some good fortune but my model actually has four Big 12 teams projected as better teams than BYU.

If youre looking for quality teams to be selected for an at-large bid, BYU was not one of them.

BYU was already ranked behind undefeated Indiana and one-loss Texas and Penn State in last weeks Playoff rankings.

That doesnt bode well for its ranking Tuesday and, ultimately, its CFP hopes.

My projections have BYU as the fourth team out of the Playoff, and it will likely need to win out, including the Big 12 championship, to make the CFP.

GO DEEPER Why the SEC could stuff the bracket: College Football Playoff Bubble Watch Group of 5 Playoff picture Boise State survived a scare against San Jose State .

Dont be fooled by the final score of 42-21, as the Broncos were holding onto a one-score lead before two touchdowns in the final three minutes after starting the game down 14-0.

And though that will hurt them from a game control and perception standpoint, the Broncos also took a resume hit with Washington State Boise States only ranked win losing and likely falling out of the College Football Playoff rankings.

There is a chance that UNLV moves into the rankings to help Boise State, however.

Advertisement As for the other likely Group of 5 team to claim an automatic bid as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, thats almost certainly coming down to Army or Tulane from the AAC, if Boise State gets upset.

Both Army and Tulane have secured spots in the AAC title game , and both were ranked in last weeks rankings.

Expect them to move up even further this week.

Army does play Notre Dame this week, so there is a chance the Black Knights fall out of the rankings with a loss, considering how poor their schedule is, while Tulane has only Memphis left on the schedule to keep its Playoff hopes alive.

If either team loses before winning the AAC championship, its hard for me to see either team being ranked high enough to get the final automatic bid.

Boise State is in the best shape, though theres work to be done.

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