ATSWINS

Yankees Potential Trade Target: Garrett Crochet

Updated Nov. 17, 2024, 3 p.m. by Peter Brody 1 min read
MLB News

This winter features a pair of potentially franchise-altering starting pitchers in Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki.

For pitching-needy teams that miss out on their signatures but still want to shop in the highest tier of starters, the trade market holds the third ace-caliber player who could be available this winter in Garrett Crochet.

2024 Statistics: 32 GS, 6-12, 146 IP, 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+), 2.69 FIP, 35.1% K%, 5.5% BB%, 1.068 WHIP, 4.7 fWAR 2025 FanGraphs Depth Charts Projections: 31 GS, 11-10, 170 IP, 2.94 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 32.6% K%, 7.5% BB%, 1.06 WHIP, 4.8 fWAR Contract Status: Projected to earn $2.9 million in second year of arbitration eligibility.

Free agent following 2026 season.

Many around the league expected the White Sox to deal Crochet at last seasons Trade Deadline.

However, he threw a wrench into potential suitors plans when he proclaimed that he would not pitch in the playoffs for an acquiring team unless they signed him to an immediate extension, and refused to come out of the bullpen.

Crochet ended up staying put as the Southsiders finished with the worst record in MLB history.

Still no closer to contention, Chicago is once again expected to make their star pitcher available.

While certainly a bizarre demand to make last summer, it is better understood when looking at the arc of Crochets career.

He was selected by the White Sox with the 11th overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft and made his big league debut that season, becoming the 22nd player in history to go straight from the Draft to the Majors without playing in the minors and the first since Mike Leake in 2010.

He impressed in five relief appearances, routinely throwing triple digit fastballs.

But then he missed all of 2022 and pitched just 12.2 innings in 2023 following a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery, so its easier to see why he wanted to parlay his first sustained MLB success into financial security.

Once part of an exciting triumvirate of pitching prospects alongside Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech, Crochet was expected to form part of the core of a window of contention for the White Sox.

Now he is one of the last tradeable assets of that quickly extinguished era.

Among the 81 starters to throw at least 140 innings in 2024, Crochet found himself among elite company: Crochets effectiveness begins and ends with his fastball.

At 97.3 mph, his four-seamer had the second-fastest average velocity of any starting pitcher.

The pitch featured the second-highest whiff rate (31.4-percent) of any four-seamer thrown by a starter with batters managing just a .198 BA and .295 SLG against.

He backs it up with a cutter thrown in the low-90s as well as a sweeper and changeup that are more show-me pitches than anything more concrete.

All four of those pitches induced whiff rates north of 30 percent, allowing Crochet to finish in the 91st percentile or better in strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate, and expected wOBA.

Despite 2024 being Crochets first stretch of sustained success, the projection systems see him taking even another step forward in 2025.

FanGraphs Depth Charts projects him for the fourth-best ERA, FIP, and fWAR in baseball behind Jacob deGrom, Paul Skenes, and Tarik Skubal as well as the second-best K-BB% (25.1-percent) behind only deGrom.

Interestingly, Crochet profiles similarly to a pitcher already employed by the Yankees in Carlos Rodon.

Both are hard-throwing lefties taken by the White Sox in the first round of the MLB Draft.

Both overcame extensive injury layoffs, finding more sustainable mechanics to propel them to career bests.

The question is how long Crochet can keep going as a pure power pitcher, Rodon having to transform himself into more of a complete package in his second season with the Yankees.

There are some elements of Crochets profile that may give teams pause.

You always worry a little more about a pitcher who has undergone a lengthy Tommy John recovery.

Crochets average fastball velocity is down about three mph from the triple digits he was averaging as a rookie, though this is likely down to conserving energy as a starter.

Crochet made 32 starts in 2024, but with only 146 total inning pitched, that averages out to roughly four-and-two-thirds innings per start.

And of course, there is always the question of whether one good season justifies a hefty asking price.

Per a recent report , the Yankees were one of the teams to open trade discussions for Crochet at last years deadline.

The two sides obviously did not match up, with the report suggesting that Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones would have to be included in the return package.

Its a steep price, but Crochets final two seasons of arbitration eligibility should come at an affordable price, particularly if he continues to pitch like he did in 2024..

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