Did Jaguars find formula for slowing down Justin Jefferson and Vikings offense?

EAGAN, Minn.

Lets set straight a misunderstanding about Kevin OConnells play calling: The Minnesota Vikings coach does not call plays from a script.

Some NFL coaches do, especially early in games.

They spend an ungodly amount of time brainstorming the correct way to unveil their plan.

In a sense, OConnell is similar.

There are plays he prefers over others, some he knows he will call in the first quarter.

But it is never definite and is always adaptable on the fly.

The reason is the man who wears No.

18: Justin Jefferson .

Advertisement You go into a game, and the numbers might say theres a highly likely chance percentage-wise well get (a certain coverage), OConnell said Monday.

(Maybe) we dont particularly get that.

Jeffersons game-breaking ability requires opponents to create blueprints to keep him in check.

Often, opponents strategies involve playing heavy doses of zone coverage with two high safeties.

The idea is to prevent Jefferson from slithering past cornerbacks and wrecking the game.

The Jacksonville Jaguars liked this idea, and Sunday, they leaned into this approach.

And by leaned in, I mean all the way in .

The Jags played a higher percentage of two-high safety coverage against the Vikings pass plays (92.9 percent) than any NFL team has played since 2018, according to Next Gen Stats.

They also posted one of the lowest blitz rates in a game this season.

Justin Jefferson was the intended receiver on all three of Sam Darnold's interceptions against the Jaguars; all three were against split-safety coverage.

On the season, Jefferson has accumulated +29.1 EPA when targeted against single-high and -7.8 EPA against split-safeties.

pic.twitter.com/VoVvxwjVv9 Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 11, 2024 Essentially, Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen said, Someone might beat us today, but it is not going to be Jefferson.

And it worked.

The All-Pro receiver caught only five passes for 48 yards.

Theres trying to have a coverage plan to Justin, OConnell said, and then theres an entire aspect of team defense against Justin.

After the Vikings 12-7 victory , there are several questions worth asking: Why were the Jaguars OK playing this way? How did the Vikings counteract it? And did the Vikings response do enough to dissuade other teams from trying similar tactics? It does not take a particularly deep dive to understand the Jaguars vision.

The table below shows the Vikings offensive production this season against two high safeties versus one high safety.

On the surface, these numbers seem fairly comparable.

But note the sharp decline in explosive play rate and explosive pass rate.

Explosive plays matter a great deal to offenses.

Drives are almost six times more likely to produce points if they include one of them.

This is partly what makes Jefferson worth his four-year, $140 million contract.

He alone has accounted for 71 plays of 20 yards or more since the beginning of 2022, more than any other non-quarterback.

Advertisement The Vikings often motion Jefferson across the formation, making it hard for defenses to line up and regularly frustrate the Minnesota offense with the same coverage.

Sometimes, OConnell positions Jefferson in a stacked formation, preventing cornerbacks from jamming him at the line of scrimmage.

Other times, OConnell uses bunched looks with three receivers in a triangle, forcing the defenders to communicate.

These tools have helped Jefferson average more yards per game (103.2) than any other NFL receiver since 2022.

Still, as the cliche goes, defensive coaches and players get paid, too.

As youll see in the table below, one of the obvious ways to shrink Jeffersons outsized impact is to play with a two-high safety structure: Though the Jaguars might have taken things to the extreme, the Vikings are well versed in facing these defenses.

The only two teams that have run more plays against two-high safety structures since 2022 are the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals (both of which have a couple of elite receivers of their own).

So much of the Vikings offensive evolution has centered on punishing defenses when this is the route they take.

Acquiring tight end T.J.

Hockenson provided OConnell and his Vikings staff with a pass catcher who could win one-on-one matchups and find space in underneath zones.

Signing tight end Josh Oliver offered the Vikings more of a blocking presence in the run game that would have advantageous numbers in the box.

Drafting receiver Jordan Addison and adding Aaron Jones in free agency stacked more weaponry to thwart defenses planning to lean all the way in.

The Jaguars were not discouraged, even if it meant scrapping their previous tendencies.

The table below highlights how much less man coverage they played Sunday than usual.

Jacksonville even disguised its intent on Minnesotas opening possession, roving a linebacker across from Jones in man coverage on a third-and-3 situation, then dropping into zone coverage.

Once OConnell identified what the Jaguars had schemed, quarterback Sam Darnold started to find Hockenson underneath, and Jones began to eat up chunks of yardage in the run game.

The Vikings possessed the ball for more than 42 minutes, the highest total of any NFL offense in a game this season.

They converted 28 first downs, one of the highest totals of any team this season.

OConnell, who often has been ribbed for his unwillingness to run the football, chose to hand the ball off 43 times, the most of any game in his head-coaching career.

Advertisement Give them credit, OConnell said Monday.

They were willing to sacrifice time of possession, the run game and tight ends working the middle of the field.

If we dont turn the ball over, maybe we look back on that going, Was that really the best way (for them) to go about it? Thats the most interesting question: Is that the best way for future opponents to stop Minnesota? The Vikings reached Jaguars territory on eight of their 10 possessions.

They had five red zone chances.

You cannot remove Darnolds three interceptions, but the Vikings offensive output mirrored many of their most efficient showings when accounting for the rest of the afternoon.

GO DEEPER Sam Darnold's turnovers nearly doom Vikings in narrow win over Jaguars At the same time, the Vikings identity passing explosiveness was zapped.

And though the Vikings generated 169 rushing yards, the advanced metrics (EPA per play, success rate, yards before and after contact) all indicate an above-average rushing day at best, not the outpouring youd probably need to scare off other teams from adopting this distinctive a strategy.

If there is an obvious positive in all of this, its the fact the Vikings and OConnell were exposed to this wacky plan at the Week 10 mark.

If OConnells process were not already as adaptable as it is, theres no telling how much harder Sunday afternoon would have been to watch.

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(Photo: Jeremy Reper / Imagn Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.