Jenna’s Outlook Week 10: Bills (7-2) at Colts (4-5)

The Buffalo Bills have reached a record of 7-2 for the first time since 2020 after their nail-biting win over the Miami Dolphins, which was capped off by a 61 yard game-winning field goal by, none other than, kicker Tyler Bass! What was sacrificed in the win, unfortunately, was wide receiver Keon Coleman , who suffered a wrist injury after being torpedoed by Dolphins safety Jordan Poyer, which made the field goal opportunity possible.

The standout Bills rookie is now expected to miss some time, although the severity of the injury has not been specified.

To add insult to injury, WR Amari Cooper is also experiencing a wrist injury which will cause him to miss yet another game this week.

Now, the Bills are short on wide receivers, and they face a tough task going up against a Colts defensive line which may make it difficult for quarterback Josh Allen to go through his progressions unscathed.

Luckily, Allen has other weapons, such as WR Khalil Shakir, tight end Dalton Kincaid, and rookie running back Ray Davis, to target.

In fact, I believe that the Bills could use the same game plan that they achieved versus another opponent they played on their schedule.

Matchups to Watch Out For Bills Offense vs Colts Defensive Line The Colts defensive line features a monstrous starting interior, headlined by defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart.

The duo have played in five games together this season.

In those five games, Buckner has produced 10 total pressures and Stewart has produced 11 .

In the four games that Buckner was not available, Stewart only produced one pressure.

That goes to show how vital Buckner has been for Stewarts success along the interior.

At the edges, defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo boasts an 18% pass rush win rate, which ranks 15th in the league .

Across the Colts entire defensive line, they rank 21st in pass rush win rate and 20th in run stop win rate .

Given the volatility of individual players on the Colts defensive line, I believe the Bills could use a similar tactic that they deployed versus the Seattle Seahawks just a couple weeks ago.

In that game, the Bills battled Seattles stout defensive line by using under-center play action, passing the ball very early and utilizing their jumbo packages.

For example, the first play on offense featured offensive lineman Alec Anderson as the sixth offensive lineman, and TE Dawson Knox catching a 23 yard pass across the middle off of play-action.

The Bills were very successful in that game, and faced a pressure percentage of just 2.7% ! Although the Bills wont have two of their top three pass catchers versus the Colts, I am hopeful that the offensive line can buy Josh Allen time in ways that they did in against the Seahawks.

Bills Run Defense vs Colts RB Jonathan Taylor Most Bills fans have tried to erase the memory that RB Jonathan Taylor left them just a few years ago, when he exploded against Buffalo for 204 scrimmage yards and five total touchdowns .

I dont even need to plug in his 2024 season stats to emphasize how much of a threat he is.

Lets hope thats not the case again this week, as the Bills defense may have the luxury of honing in on Taylor given the absence of WR Michael Pittman Jr.

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Buffalos run defense, in terms of raw stats, has been among the leagues worst.

However, this may be on purpose, as cornerback Taron Johnson explained after the Bills win over the Dolphins in Week 9: I just feel as though they have really great weapons on the outside.

So, kind of playing like, kind of letting them run the ball, just not giving up explosive plays.

The Bills seem content with giving up rushing yards as long as theyre not getting beat over the top.

In terms of advanced metrics, their run stop win rate is actually ranked third best in the league.

What we see on the field may make us cringe, but it is all just simple math.

The more defenders that load the box, the easier it is to stop the run.

All it takes is filling in the correct gaps and being able to get off of blocks to make tackles.

Now, the Colts do have the third best run block win rate in the league.

Like every NFL game, this one will be won in the trenches.

Predictions RB Ray Davis is featured The Colts defensive line is very physical, so perhaps the best way to combat that is to use a very physical running back! Thankfully, rookie RB Ray Davis is just that.

Among rookie running backs this season, Davis ranks third in total rushing yards with 262.

He also ranks second in receiving yards with 149, including a 63 yard receiving touchdown he scored in Week 9.

He has been an undeniable weapon for Josh Allen, and I expect him to be plenty involved.

Conclusion The Buffalo Bills are headed to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Josh Allens rookie season, but they will be short handed.

WRs Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper will not be available, so it is up to WR Khalil Shakir and company to open the field up for Josh Allen against a Colts defense that is very opportunistic.

After this matchup, the Bills will be facing the Kansas City Chiefs at home, so lets hope that Buffalo is not looking past Indianapolis! This article first appeared on Buffalo Fanatics and was syndicated with permission..

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