Red Sox free agent options: A detailed look at which pitchers fit best
With free agency in full swing, its time to start breaking down which players might fit the Red Sox s needs.
Since the end of the season, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has signaled on multiple occasions a willingness to add to the club this winter in an effort to break a multiyear malaise for the team.
Advertisement We asked our fans to sacrifice a lot to be patient as we build the foundation that would enable us to meet those goals, Breslow said.
I think were here.
I think were ready to deliver.
At GM meetings this week, agent Scott Boras reinforced that notion with some interesting comments.
In our meetings, (the Red Sox) are definitely letting us know that ownership is committed, that theyre wanting to secure high-level players and that theyre definitely planning on being very active in the free agent market, he told reporters.
The Red Sox seem prepared to add, so over the next couple weeks, well explore free-agent fits for the rotation, lineup and bullpen.
In our first installment here well take a look at starting pitchers.
The Red Sox could go in a number of directions in adding to the rotation.
The qualifying offer extended to Nick Pivetta does change the calculus a bit.
Pivetta has until Nov.
19 to accept or decline the one-year, $21.05 million deal.
The Red Sox payroll currently sits around $170 million, meaning the club has roughly $70 million to spend before hitting $241 million, the first tier of the luxury tax threshold.
Allotting more than $20 million to Pivetta obviously accounts for a significant portion of that money, but it could also mean, if he accepts, the team plans to trade from the rotation to add a right-handed bat.
Below well separate free-agent starters into three categories: impact, top-of-the-rotation pieces; mid-tier complementary additions; and risk-reward pitchers who might be added on shorter deals but still bring something to the club.
To offer an idea of what kind of deal each pitcher might land, we used contract projections from The Athletic s Tim Britton , as well as from MLB Trade Rumors .
We also noted which pitchers here have qualifying offers attached to them.
Every pitcher listed is expected to reject the QO, but in doing so, if the Red Sox signed one of them, they would forfeit their second-highest draft pick in 2025, as well as $500,000 in international bonus pool money.
Advertisement Impact category Age: 30 (turns 31 in January) 2024 stats: 3.25 ERA, 29 GS, 174 1/3 IP, 23.3 percent strikeout rate, 8 percent walk rate Contract projections: QO attached TA: Five years, $140 million MLBTR: Six years, $156 million Fried offers a left-handed option for the Red Soxs rotation, which is entirely right-handed at the moment.
Hes not a high strikeout pitcher, but has been consistently excellent over the last five seasons in Atlanta, never posting an ERA over 3.25 in that span while averaging a 2.87 ERA in his last 101 starts since the beginning of 2021.
With an average four-seam velocity of 93.9 mph, Fried has elite command and relies heavily on a high ground ball rate.
This season he posted a 58.8 percent ground ball rate, with the league average sitting at 42.2 percent.
Improving the infield defense is already a priority for Boston, but it would be even more so with a ground ball pitcher like Fried on a staff that already includes Brayan Bello .
Age: 30 2024 stats: 2.92 ERA, 32 starts, 194 1/3 IP, 23.1 percent strikeout rate, 6.1 percent walk rate Contract projections: QO attached TA: Seven years, $217 million MLBTR: Seven years, $200 million Burnes is projected to land the biggest deal for a pitcher in free agency this winter, and for good reason.
The 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner hasnt been as dominant the last three years but still managed a sub-3.50 ERA and has age on his side having just turned 30 in October.
Hes been a workhorse with 190 or more innings pitched each of the last three seasons and has only been on the injured list twice in his career, once with an oblique strain and the other time with COVID-19.
His strikeout rate has dipped in recent years from 36 percent in 2020-21 to just above league average at 23 percent this past year, but hes still averaging 95.3 mph on his cutter, his primary pitch, while averaging 97 mph with his sinker, which he uses less frequently.
Advertisement While Burnes represents the top of the market, the projected deals would be the most the Red Sox have spent on a pitcher since David Price in 2017 and it seems likely if the Red Sox are to target a frontline pitcher, they would prefer shorter deals in the four- to five-year range.
Age: 31 (32 in December) 2024 stats: 3.12 ERA, 20 GS, 104 IP, 34.7 percent strikeout rate, 10.5 percent walk rate Contract projections: TA: Four years, $110 million MLBTR: Five years, $160 million Snell was one of the top starters last winter coming off his NL Cy Young Award, but the market stalled for him and Jordan Montgomery with neither pitcher signing until the end of spring training.
Snell opted for a two-year deal with the Giants with an opt-out to return to the market this winter.
After a rocky start, rushing his ramp-up after the late signing then landing on the injured list twice, Snell put in an impressive second half.
Over the final three months, he looked like a different pitcher with a no-hitter in July and another 15-strikeout performance.
Snell will once again be a top target this winter.
He posted a 1.048 WHIP, his best mark since 2018 when he won his first Cy Young with Tampa Bay .
Despite a gaudy strikeout rate of nearly 35 percent and a 95.9 mph average four-seamer, Snell has always struggled with command and posted a 10 percent walk rate this past year.
Age: 29 2024 stats: 3.12 ERA, 28 GS, 162 IP, 29.9 percent strikeout rate, 5.9 percent walk rate Contract projections: TA: Four years, $92 million MLBTR: Five years, $115 million Flaherty turned 29 in October, making him the youngest of the top free-agent pitchers.
But he also pitched deep in the postseason for the Los Angeles Dodgers after a deadline trade from the Detroit Tigers and theres always some concern with pitchers ability to bounce back the next year after an extra month of high-stress pitching.
Nevertheless, Flaherty excelled in 2024 in Detroit with a 2.95 ERA and 32 percent strikeout rate.
He posted a 3.58 ERA and 26 percent K rate after the trade to LA.
Hes not the hardest thrower with a 93.3 mph four-seamer, but did see his velocity tick up a hair since 2023.
Flaherty has had an up-and-down career from a top prospect to dealing with shoulder injuries in 2021-22, but he still remains one of the top pitchers on the market.
Advertisement Complementary category Age: 32 (33 in February) 2024 stats: 3.47 ERA, 32 GS, 181 2/3 IP, 24.9 percent strikeout rate, 8.5 percent walk rate Contract projections: QO attached TA: Four years, $76 million MLBTR: Three years, $60 million The veteran posted a career high in innings pitched this season for the Mets and his lowest ERA for a full season in the rotation.
He also came up big in the postseason for the Mets in three of his four starts.
Manaeas strong year was partially a result of some mechanical tweaks in which the lefty sought to mimic Chris Sale .
He flipped his pitch usage this year from primarily using his four-seamer and changeup to throwing his sinker 45 percent of the time and sweeper about 20 percent.
Manaea isnt a top-of-the rotation starter but would raise the floor of the Red Sox rotation and be a durable presence having thrown 158 or more innings in three of the last four years.
Age: 34 (35 in February) 2024 stats: 3.80 ERA, 29 GS, 170 2/3 IP, 23.9 percent strikeout rate, 6 percent walk rate Contract projections: TA: Two years, $45 million MLBTR: Two years, $44 million The Red Sox are very familiar with Eovaldi hes proven he can pitch in Boston and in the highest leverage situations.
Hes also expressed a desire to return to the team where he pitched from 2018-22.
Eovaldi has remained a consistently solid mid-rotation pitcher into his mid-30s, posting an ERA between 3.63 and 3.87 in each of his last five seasons.
Hes posted an above-average 24 percent strikeout rate and low 5.6 percent walk rate in that time.
This year his velocity ticked up a bit from 2023, sitting at 95.4 mph.
Eovaldi knows each of Bostons young starters well and has helped elevate each of their careers so hed fit seamlessly into the mix.
He is coming off his healthiest season since leaving Boston.
After pitching only 109 1/3 innings in 2022 and 144 innings in 2023 because of shoulder inflammation and a forearm strain, respectively, the righty posted 170 2/3 innings over 29 starts this year and saw his strikeout rate reach its highest mark since 2021.
Advertisement Risk-reward category Age: 33 2024 stats: 4.05 ERA, 32 GS, 175 2/3 IP, 28 percent strikeout rate, 6 percent walk rate Contract projections: TA: Three years, $63 million MLBTR: Three years, $60 million Kikuchi has had a more up-and-down career than most, with flashes of brilliance and bouts of awfulness.
His second half in Houston this past season showed what he can be at his best.
In 10 starts after a trade from Toronto, the lefty posted a 2.70 ERA with a 31.8 percent strikeout rate.
Kikuchi had a strong 2023 with a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts and 167 2/3 innings while posting a 25.9 percent strikeout rate.
In 2024, he not only pitched a career high in innings but also reached the 200-strikeout mark for the first time.
His 95.5 mph average fastball was the hardest of his career.
However, even though hes pitched well the last two seasons, particularly in the second half this year, Kikuchi will be 34 in June and has a 4.57 career ERA in 166 games, 154 starts.
Hes lost his rotation spot on more than one occasion in both Seattle and Toronto and has struggled for consistency in his career.
While he would strengthen the back end of Bostons rotation, he comes with some risk.
Age: 30 2024 stats: 5.38 ERA, 16 GS, 75 1/3 IP, 18.6 percent strikeout rate, 8.1 percent walk rate Contract projections: TA: Two years, $32 million MLBTR: One year, $15 million Buehler symbolized the Dodgers relentlessness in the postseason this past October and put himself back on the free-agent map.
Coming off his second Tommy John surgery, Buehler looked lost in the early part of the year and at one point, he left the Dodgers over the summer to work at Cressey Sports Performance to regain his form .
In eight starts from May through June, he had a 5.84 ERA.
After returning to the team in August, he posted a 4.93 ERA in his final eight starts.
After a rough first start in the NLDS, he pitched nine scoreless innings in his next two starts and then closed out the World Series-clinching game against the Yankees .
Buehler was able to return to his 95 mph average fastball velocity he posted in 2022, but he struggled this year with strikeouts and was hit hard in the zone.
Hes far from his 2.47 ERA in 2021 when he finished fourth in Cy Young Award voting.
Like others in this category, Buehler figures to be a bounce-back candidate, but theres also a risk he cant maintain his form.
Buehler turns 31 in July and likely will land a one-year deal to prove himself.
Hell have suitors, but if the Red Sox are one of them theyll need more insurance for the rotation.
Advertisement Age: 30 (31 in February) 2024 stats: 3.91 ERA, 31 GS, 182 IP, 21.2 percent strikeout rate, 7.9 percent walk rate Contract projections: QO attached TA: Three years, $50 million MLBTR: Three years, $51 million Severino battled several injuries, including Tommy John surgery, from 2019-23, but he had a solid year for the Mets after signing a one-year deal with them last winter.
They gave him a qualifying offer, making him a less attractive rotation candidate, but hes still in the middle tier of starters available with a four-seamer that averages 96.2 mph.
His strikeout rate is down from earlier in his career, but he posted a sub-4.00 ERA in his first healthy season in a while, putting up more than 180 innings.
Age: 33 2024 stats: 4.28 ERA, 31 GS, 160 IP, 22.9 percent strikeout rate, 5.9 percent walk rate Contract projections: TA: Two years, $35 million MLBTR: Two years, $24 million Heaney, who turns 34 in June, represents a solid back-end rotation option who is a lefty and doesnt have a qualifying offer attached.
Hes not a hard thrower by any means with his four-seamer sitting 91.5 mph, about 1 mph slower than in 2023, but he was effective for the Rangers , thanks to elite command with a walk rate among the lowest in the league.
However, he has long had issues allowing homers, surrendering 23 each of the past two seasons.
Heaney isnt a top choice by any means, but if the Red Sox were to add a top-line starter, Heaney could be added as a back-end piece, particularly if Pivetta declines his QO or another pitcher is traded from the rotation.
Age: 23 2024 NPB stats: 2.35 ERA, 18 GS, 111 IP, 28.7 percent strikeout rate, 7.1 percent walk rate.
Were listing Sasaki here only because theres been so much speculation about his posting.
Sasaki has yet to be posted from Nippon Professional Baseball, where hes pitched for four seasons, and may not even be posted this winter.
However, earlier this week he reportedly did turn down an option from the Chiba Lotte Marines .
He could be seeking a different contract with them or it could signal hes ready to be posted.
The righty just turned 23 and under MLB s international free agency guidelines, a player must be at least 25 with six or more years of pro ball to earn a professional contract.
If he posted this winter, Sasaki would be treated as an amateur and sign a minor-league deal.
Its still possible he opts to do so.
Over four seasons in the NPB, hes posted a 2.10 ERA with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate and 5.7 percent walk rate.
(Top photo of Max Fried: Brett Davis / USA Today).
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