Weekend NHL rankings: Playoff outsiders I still believe in, at least for now

It was a rough year for one of my favorite stats.

Years ago, when Elliotte Friedman introduced his curse of November 1, I had the same reaction that most fans seemed to: It didnt make sense.

Over a decade ago, Friedman pointed out how rare it is for a team to be four points out of the playoffs at the start of November and end up making it, but the results felt wrong.

After all, you can make up four points in two games doing it in five months should be easy.

And yet Friedman found that the failure rate was close to 90 percent.

Advertisement So can any teams break the curse this year? Yes.

Two of them, and thats it, because only two teams were four points back as of Friday .

Those teams would be the Predators and Blackhawks , and yeah, I think one of them is a little more likely to make the push than the other.

But thanks to a late start and Gary Bettmans beloved leaguewide parity, almost everyone is close enough not to panic yet.

(In the East, nobody was even two points back when the new month began.) OK, so much for this years early season curse narrative, at least until U.S.

Thanksgiving arrives and we can switch to that.

But there are still a lot of good teams outside the playoffs right now, including some we all assumed would make it.

So today, Im going to see if I can name five teams that wouldnt be in the playoffs if they started today (based on points percentage), but that have a good shot to be in when it matters.

Thats going to be tougher than it could have been, since the Oilers moved back into a spot after last nights win and robbed me of a freebie.

But we love a challenge, so lets do this from least to most confidence.

Bonus five: Teams outside the playoffs that are most likely to make it in April 5.

Detroit Red Wings Im not especially confident, which is why theyre the first team on the list.

Its been an uninspiring start to the season for Steve Yzerman and the worlds most plodding rebuild.

But with some winnable games coming up, and the Eastern race looking a little more vulnerable than expected, the Wings still have a strong shot.

(Checks Doms model forecast .) OK, well theyve got a shot.

4.

Utah Hockey Club This one feels a little cheap, since they were holding down a spot up until the Oilers win last night and are only out based on the regulation wins tiebreaker.

Im still not completely sure what to make of this team, and they havent looked great since that 3-0-0 start that may have just been a jolt of early adrenaline.

Theyre on a tough road trip right now and have some tough matchups when they get back home.

You know what, Im talking myself out of this, lets move on ...

3.

Nashville Predators Theyre 4-1-1 in their last six, so theyre already digging out of the early hole they found themselves in.

It was a heck of a hole, though, and theres plenty of work left to do.

I think they get there, although Im interested to see how they do against a surprisingly tough Kings team tonight.

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Boston Bruins I get that its bad.

Ive read Flutos dispatches from a season slipping away , mixed in with the occasional benching .

And I think the potential for a window-slam of a season is real.

I just dont think its all that likely, even after a rough first month.

I still think the Bruins get in, even if theyre technically behind the Senators for the final Eastern spot based on points percentage.

I also have a sinking feeling Boston fans might be ready to argue with me about that.

1.

Colorado Avalanche The easy call, right? Yes, theyre well under .500 and looking up at teams like the Ducks and Blues .

But with the almost ridiculous list of injuries theyre facing up front, it feels like anything close to treading water should be good enough for now.

Dont fall too far behind, get healthy and be ready when the games truly start to matter.

Theyll be fine, which means Im pretty much guaranteed to get at least one of these right.

Missing six (!) of their top nine or 10 forwards, the Avs lineup is incredibly depleted.

Rookies Kovalenko and Ivan, with a combined 20 games NHL experience, will both be in the top six tonight against Tampa.

https://t.co/WFpMmbYp5p James Mirtle (@mirtle) October 30, 2024 Which five current playoff teams will those outsiders be replacing? Ill leave that as an exercise for the reader, mostly because I dont need to get dunked on by Capitals fans any more than I already have this week.

On to the rankings ...

Road to the Cup The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.

As a bit of a rulebook nerd, I found this piece on the evolution of officiating very interesting.

But I think we can all agree on the main impact of the switch to a two-referee system: The refs now blatantly hate your favorite team twice as much as they used to.

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Vegas Golden Knights (8-3-1, +17 true goals differential*) Uh oh, is the Vegas flu back? It might be, as the Knights are 8-0 at home on the year.

Now they just need a road win.

Theyll get a pair of chances this week, as they visit Edmonton and Seattle.

4.

Winnipeg Jets (11-1-0, +29) Many of you accused me of choosing last Monday to finally pump the Jets tires only because they were playing Toronto that night, and that I was working some sort of reverse jinx to summon a Leafs win.

My reply to that is (gestures at my entire miserable life as a Leafs fan) yeah I cant really do that.

But yes, they did finally lose, ending the streak and putting them at risk of a hangover slump.

That didnt happen, with impressive take-care-of-business wins over the Wings and Blue Jackets before yesterdays comeback against the Lightning .

Meanwhile, Murat has an update on the less inspiring story off the ice .

3.

New York Rangers (8-2-1, +20) Good stuff from Arthur here on the many big decisions looming for Chris Drury .

2.

Dallas Stars (7-4-0, +7) Our top two teams headed to Finland for a two-game series, which the Panthers swept.

Thats enough to knock the Stars out of top spot for the first time this year, although its hard to get too concerned about a team with the best goaltending in the league .

1.

Florida Panthers (9-3-1, +7) Speaking of the Finland games, as far as the local fans go, this may have been the highlight: *Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.

Not ranked: Minnesota Wild Im not quite there yet.

But its getting close, right? The Wild have been one of the biggest stories of the seasons first month, coming into the weekend sitting at an impressive 7-1-2 and staying right behind the Jets for top spot in the Central.

Theyre hitting on all cylinders, with Kirill Kaprizov looking like an early Hart candidate, strong goaltending from Filip Gustavsson , Marco Rossi showing signs of a breakout year and solid possession numbers that suggest this isnt some random fluke.

Oh, and they did all that despite having an early seven-game road trip dropped into the October schedule.

They even broke out the ol two-puck trick play .

Not bad.

Advertisement As Russo puts it, they might have something special brewing .

So its fair to ask: Why did the Jets push their way into an early top-five spot, but not the Wild? Its close, but I think there are a few factors.

The Jets are coming off a 110-point season while the Wild missed the playoffs last year, and while some of that was due to injuries, it does make the Jets first month feel somewhat more sustainable.

The Wild are also shooting north of 13 percent as a team, which isnt going to last.

And while we dont pay a ton of attention to single-game outcomes remember, these are the long-term rankings we can note Winnipeg did win the only head-to-head matchup.

Its not much, but if you think its a coin flip, maybe it helps.

All that aside, the Wild are certainly making a push, and its probably time to start taking them more seriously than most of us have been.

Yesterdays OT win over a mediocre Maple Leafs team wasnt the most impressive win of the season, but it had a dramatic finish that highlighted the power of a smart defensive play.

But heres the more important point: With Kaprizov in his prime, some young players already in key roles, a new coach in his first full season and the massive Zach Parise/ Ryan Suter buyout burden finally coming almost entirely off the books next year, the Wild are starting to look like a long-term contender.

And that means it may be time to retire the jokes about them always being in the forgettable middle and get used to a world in which theyre a powerhouse.

Not quite yet, though.

I want to see it for a bit longer before I give this team the top-five bump.

But were close, which is something I cant say I saw coming heading into the year.

The bottom five The five teams that are headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else .

You should be concerned.

Yes, even if you know your team isnt going to be in this section.

They still have something to worry about .

5.

Buffalo Sabres (4-7-1, -6) The Flyers and Blue Jackets have both been good enough to at least temporarily vacate their spots, meaning we have room for a new team.

Unfortunately for the leagues longest-suffering fan base, that has to be the Sabres, whove lost three straight in regulation and are starting to generate some tough questions for GM Kevyn Adams .

Next up are the Senators, a team thats blown past them on the way to the Atlantic playoff hunt.

Advertisement Ah well.

At least they seem to have finally found a guy who can make big saves .

4.

Montreal Canadiens (4-7-1, -16) Sometimes, the beat writers can say more in five words than I could in an entire section: On the Canadiens, and vomit.

https://t.co/zQEEeSKE0Q Arpon Basu (@ArponBasu) November 1, 2024 Meanwhile, the bigger news coming out of the weekend was Noel Acciaris debatable hit on Juraj Slafkovsky and Arber Xhekajs response .

It doesnt sound like the DoPS will take any action, and well wait for word on any injuries.

3.

Anaheim Ducks (4-5-2, -7) Theyve only won four of 11, but Lukas Dostal is looking like the real deal .

2.

Chicago Blackhawks (5-7-1, -5) They earned a par of weekend wins, beating the Kings and Ducks on the road, although they lost to the Sharks .

How many teams this year do you think will lose to everyone except San Jose on their California trip? 1.

San Jose Sharks (3-8-2, -17) Theyre hot! Red-hot, even.

OK, so their win streak got snapped at three on Saturday, but were going to focus on the positive here, and progress is progress.

Not ranked: New York Islanders The case for the Islanders as a 2024-25 playoff team was a pretty straightforward one.

Theyd made it last year, so in theory, they just needed to hold serve.

And with Patrick Roy in his first full season as coach and Ilya Sorokin almost certain to rebound from his first so-so season, the path to improvement was clear.

Sure, they might be a little old and a little too expensive, and there were questions around what the offense could do.

But if the playoffs were the goal, it was right there for the taking.

One month in and the results have been mixed.

Yesterdays loss to the Rangers drops them to 4-6-2 and was their fourth loss in the last five.

And the only win in that stretch was against the Sabres, so it barely counts.

With Mathew Barzal and Adam Pelech both out long term, things are looking bleak .

Advertisement If theres good news, its that Sorokin has been very good, maybe even good enough for Roy to give him more than a split of the starts with Semyon Varlamov .

But it hasnt been enough to make up for an offense that was ranking toward the very bottom of the league even before losing Barzal.

They get an interesting matchup tomorrow with the Penguins , a team that seemed to be in full crash-and-burn mode until running off a few wins this week after loading up the top line .

The Penguins were one of those teams that was supposed to be laying claim to the Islanders playoff spot.

So were the Senators, and theyre up on Thursday.

Heading into the season, this might have looked like a prime week for the Islanders to make a statement and defend their turf.

Now, its more like a chance to keep the season from tipping toward early disaster.

(Photo of the Colorado Avalanche: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images).

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