Predicting MLB Teams' Decisions on Qualifying Offers and If Players Accept or Reject

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees to win the World Series, and now the baseball world will pivot to the offseason.

It may be some time before the hot stove truly heats up, but there are some procedural decisions that teams will have to make with impending free agents in the coming days.

Among those is whether to extend a qualifying offer to impending free agents.

The qualifying offer is a one-year, $21.05 million deal.

If it's extended to any player, they can accept it and play on that deal for 2025.

If they decline it and sign with another team, their former team collects draft-pick compensation, while the new employers surrender picks in the next year's MLB Draft.

Those who have previously been extended a qualifying offer cannot receive one for a second time.

Among those who can become free agents this winter who are ineligible to receive a qualifying offer are Gerrit Cole, Cody Bellinger, Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Blake Snell.

Teams have to decide by 5 p.m.

ET on Monday, Nov.

4 whether to extend qualifying offers to eligible recipients.

Those who receive a QO have to accept or decline it by 4 p.m.

ET on Nov.

19.

Here are predictions on whether some notable candidates for the qualifying offer will indeed be extended one and if they are, whether they will accept or decline it.

Will Orioles Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes Will Burnes Accept Qualifying Offer? No Corbin Burnes just turned 30 years old, has been an All-Star in four consecutive seasons and won the 2021 NL Cy Young Award as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers.

He also has a clean health history.

It's a slam dunk that Burneswho is probably the best free-agent pitcher since Gerrit Cole after 2019will receive and decline a qualifying offer from the Orioles.

He'll then head to free agency in search of a deal worth at least $200 million.

Will Dodgers Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes Will Hernandez Accept Qualifying Offer? No Teoscar Hernandez had a tremendous season with the Dodgers, homering 33 times, driving in 99 runs and winning a World Series.

Because the Seattle Mariners didn't extend a qualifying offer to him last winter, Hernandez is eligible to receive one and the Dodgers will certainly take advantage of that.

Being saddled with a qualifying offer might turn some teams off to making a push for the 32-year-old in free agency.

The best scenario for Hernandez probably would be to decline the qualifying offer, test free agency and eventually return to the Dodgers on a three or four-year deal.

Will Brewers Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes Will Adames Accept Qualifying Offer? No Willy Adames had the finest offensive season of his career in his contract year, homering 32 times, driving in 112 runs and drawing 74 walks.

Even if his typically-strong defensive metrics took a hit in 2024he posted -16 defensive runs saved a year after finishing with eight DRSAdames will definitely receive and decline the qualifying offer.

Based on how the Brewers typically operate, they'll likely let someone else pay Adames $150+ million and collect the draft compensation when he departs in free agency.

Will Mets Extend Qualifying Offer? No Luis Severino revitalized his career with the Mets in 2024, posting a 3.91 ERA across 182 innings for a team that reached the NLCS.

Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns should definitely consider extending the qualifying offer to Severino.

But if the Mets do that, the most likely scenario is that the 30-year-old accepts it and returns to Flushing on a $21.05 million salary in 2025.

Given that Severino pitched just 209.1 total innings between 2019 and 2023, the guess here is the Mets will decide guaranteeing him that amount of money for 2025 is too much of a risk.

Not offering Severino the qualifying offering doesn't preclude the Mets from bringing him back.

It does mean, though, that he's likely to receive a multi-year deal, potentially one that allows him to get back to the market again next offseason if he proves he's put injury issues in the rearview mirror.

Will Padres Extend Qualifying Offer? No Right shoulder inflammation limited Ha-Seong Kim to just 121 games this year, and he hit just .233, failing to match a career-year offensively the prior campaign.

Given that Kim had season-ending surgery to repair a "small tear in the labrum" of his right shoulder that likely will prevent him from being ready for Opening Day 2025, the Padres surely will not extend a qualifying offer to him.

They may not even if he was healthy.

He would probably accept it in either scenario.

Still, Kim is a tremendous defensive infielder who posted 60 RBI and a .749 OPS as recently as 2023.

With no QO attached to him, the 29-year-old may very well get a multi-year deal in free agency.

Will Yankees Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes Will Soto Accept Qualifying Offer? No Not a ton more needs to be said here.

The Yankees will issue a qualifying offer to Soto, and he'll decline it.

Obviously, the hope from Owner Hal Steinbrenner and General Manager Brian Cashman will be to find a way to fend off the cross-town rival Mets, among others, and retain Soto.

Because the Yankees topped the luxury tax threshold in 2024, they would only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2025 MLB Draft if Soto rejects the QO and leaves in free agency.

Will Mets Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes Will Alonso Accept Qualifying Offer? No It feels hard to imagine Pete Alonso playing for a team other than the Mets, particularly after he posted a .999 OPS and delivered four home runs during a surprising run to the NLCS.

Like the Yankees with Soto, the Mets would only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round for Alonso if he leaves in free agency after declining the qualifying offer.

Will Guardians Extend Qualifying Offer? No Shane Bieber had season-ending Tommy John surgery in April, which makes it unclear A) when he'll be ready to pitch in 2025 and B) how effective he'll be when he does return.

There's no way that the Guardiansa team whose ownership pinches penniesis giving Bieber the chance to accept a $21.05 million offer for 2025 with that level of uncertainty.

With that said, the Guardians need starting pitching and could try to come up with a creative offerwhether it's for one year or multipleto retain the former AL Cy Young Award winner.

But if the Guardians don't give Bieber the qualifying offer and he signs elsewhere this offseason, they'll be left empty-handed.

Will Braves Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes Will Fried Accept Qualifying Offer? No Even though he's had some durability questions, Max Fried is going to be one of the most-coveted free-agent pitchers this offseason.

He'll surely decline the qualifying offer that the Braves give him.

It's interesting, Fried has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball over the last five seasons, posting a 2.81 ERA across 112 starts for the Braves.

He'll turn 31 in January, but should still have at least a handful of strong years in front of him.

But under President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves have reached most of their long-term deals on their terms.

Players who sought to maximize their earningsFreddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson and Josh Donaldson, for examplewere allowed to leave in free agency.

If Fried wants a market-value contract, will the Braves let him walk? Will Mets Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes Will Manaea Accept Qualifying Offer? No At the time of publication, Sean Manaea hasn't yet opted out of the $13.5 million salary he could make in the second year of his contract with the Mets in 2025.

But he will after posting a 3.47 ERA across 181.2 innings this year for the Mets, the finest season of his career.

It's perhaps not a slam dunk that the Mets extend a qualifying offer to Manaea, but the guess here is he will get one from the Mets.

He could take a $21.05 million salary to remain with the Mets for 2025, but this is a pitcher who posted a 4.73 ERA from 2022-2023.

He would be wise to strike while the iron is hot, declining the qualifying offer and looking for a multi-year deal that guarantees him more than $21.05 million total.

Will Padres Extend Qualifying Offer? No Once one of the top prospects in baseball, Jurickson Profar finally made his first All-Star Game appearance in his age-31 season.

Profar homered 24 times, drove in 85 runs, walked 76 times and posted an .839 OPS.

The Padres would probably like to bring Profar back in 2025, but not at a $21.05 million price.

If they extend a qualifying offer to a player that's just a year removed from posting a .689 OPS, he's going to take it.

So the most likely scenario is that Profar becomes a free agent, and without a QO attached to him, lands a multi-year deal from either the Padres or another suitor.

Will Orioles Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes Will Santander Accept Qualifying Offer? No Anthony Santander had a tremendous walk year, setting new career-highs with 44 home runs and 102 RBI.

The Orioles will extend a qualifying offer to the switch-hitting slugger, and he'll decline it in search of a four or five-year contract in free agency.

Because the Orioles are a revenue-sharing recipient, they'll get a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 MLB Draft if Santander leaves in free agency for a deal worth $50 million or more total after rejecting a qualifying offer.

So while General Manager Mike Elias may like to bring Santander back, he's made his name off of his ability to spot talent in the draft.

He may not mind the challenge of trying to replace Burnes and Santander if it means he gets two more high draft picks in 2025.

Will Astros Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes Will Bregman Accept Qualifying Offer? No At the end of May, Alex Bregman looked like a potential candidate to accept the qualifying offer considering he had just a .652 OPS.

However, he wound up posting an .833 OPS after the All-Star Game, finishing the season with 26 home runs and 75 RBI.

Bregman will receive and decline a qualifying offer from the Astros.

Houston still seems like the best landing spot in free agency from Bregman , but there will definitely be other teams with interest in the 30-year-old..

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