Brain Games: Tight ends, Bears receivers, and a C.J. Stroud or Kirk Cousins conundrum

For at least the second straight year, National Tight Ends Day did not disappoint.

Unless you have stock in Brock Bowers , who had one of his worst outings, bringing to mind the role narratives play in fantasy football.

Getting swept up in storylines can influence start/sit decisions.

There are birthday narratives, family-in-the-stand narratives, hometown narratives, childbirth narratives, London games, primetime games, revenge games the list goes on.

Advertisement Fantasy football is meant to be fun, and if starting a narrative-driven player tickles your fancy, then, by all means, do it.

But, if youre a serious high-stakes or semi-professional fantasy manager, you have to ask yourself how a storyline will influence the talent or opportunity of the player in question.

Usually, its not very much.

For the only position to get a national recognition day, narratives seem to matter.

Coaches, quarterbacks, and fellow skill players rally around the tight ends who play a crucial role in team offenses, recognizing the positions valuable contributions in a way fantasy managers can take to the bank.

Next year, Im flexing a tight end on the last Sunday in October.

What stories are manipulating your carefully crafted decisions this week? Which every-week starters are you overthinking, and who will finally get off the bench? Like last week, I will center positional toss-ups (thank you for your favorable comments on the Week 8 format, and who among you started Bo Nix over Patrick Mahomes ?).

Feel free to comment below with your start/sit queries.

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Maybe youve been cruising along, winning games, and havent been hurt by Strouds unimpressive season.

Hes fantasys QB14 overall, averaging 14.8 fantasy points per week.

Cousins is QB12, with an average of 15.6 points per game.

If you havent been losing, you might be reluctant to move away from Stroud.

He hasnt been killing you like highly drafted names Patrick Mahomes and Anthony Richardson .

But that could be about to change.

Life got harder for Stroud without Nico Collins , but losing Stefon Diggs could be disastrous.

Houston has a short week to prepare for a Jets defense that has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the 11th-fewest points to opponents.

At home, they allow the second-fewest points in the league (12 points per game with matchups against Buffalo , Denver , and New England ).

Advertisement On the other hand, Atlanta is coming off a big Week 8 win over Tampa Bay .

Cousins has settled in, and the offense is running a balanced pass/run game plan.

The Bucs may just be putty in Cousins hands (he has thrown four touchdown passes in both meetings with them this season in by far his best two games), but I bet he can take advantage of another favorable matchup against Dallas this weekend.

The Cowboys surrender the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (19.5) and the seventh-most total offensive PPR points per game (101.88), according to TruMedia.

This game has a high point total (over/under 52 points) but could be relatively close.

In contrast, Houston is a slight favorite with a 42.5-point total.

Verdict? I wasnt very secretive in my analysis, so you can probably guess Im backing a Cousins start at home.

Atlanta has a healthier offense and is facing a softer defense.

Rodgers will get his best matchup of the season (on paper) this Thursday night when the Jets host the Houston Texans.

If you havent thrown in the towel on Rodgers yet, Week 9 might not be the week to do it.

Garrett Wilson is still capable of making Rodgers day, and I havent ruled out an increase in productivity from Davante Adams despite his lack of fantasy production this season.

The best matchups Rodgers has had other than this one came in two games against New England, and Rodgers was good in both of them (2 TDs, 0 INTs, and passer ratings of 118.9 and 111.2).

Winston has long been a fantasy favorite, partially because of the fantasy boost he provides to his receivers.

I know most of you did not start Cedric Tillman last week, but he led me to my leagues high score.

With Winston, you take the bad with the good, but the bad has been nowhere to be found in his roughly one-and-a-half games with the Browns (401 passing yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs).

Only Baker Mayfield attempted more passes than Winston in Week 8, which is the crux of the issue.

Advertisement Winston looked like a wizard against the leagues second-worst pass defense, but how will he fare when facing one of the best the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend? Verdict? I think Winston returns to Earth in a hurry against this Chargers defense.

The fun isnt over for the Browns, but Im starting Rodgers over Winston in Week 9.

Mostert is one of those players you never feel excited about starting, yet he is on your bench, rushing for two scores.

DeVon Achane had the better fantasy day in Week 8, but theres no denying Mosterts goal-line role (100 percent of snaps inside the five-yard line in the past two weeks).

Buffalo is the second-most generous run defense for fantasy despite Kenneth Walker III failing to capitalize on it in Week 8.

In Cincinnati, Brown has finally edged out Zack Moss in utilization.

The two backs share snaps evenly, but Brown has had more carries in the past four games.

However, Moss isnt going away and saw as many targets as Brown in Week 8 (four each).

Brown has scored in three of the past four games, while Moss last saw the end zone in Week 3.

Las Vegas is a great matchup for running backs, and the game boasts a reasonably high point total (45.5 points).

Verdict? Are you sure you can start only one of them? I like both backs, but Ill take Mostert here.

At the time of writing, Brian Thomas Jr.

has yet to be ruled out for Week 9, but Christian Kirk s role is the one Washington will likely fill.

The second-year receiver caught three of four targets for 46 yards in Week 8.

Trevor Lawrence will rely heavily on Evan Engram against the Eagles , but Philly is such a funnel defense that any pass-catcher could have a field day.

Meyers is rostered in about two-thirds of leagues, probably the 12-plus-team PPR leagues.

His quarterback situation leaves much to be desired, but Meyers is the clear No.

1 WR in Las Vegas and can be a target hog and end zone threat.

I expect a bounce-back game from Brock Bowers in Cincinnati one of the best tight end matchups in the league but Meyers is worth considering as a WR3 or flex.

Advertisement Verdict? Im going with Meyers proven hands this weekend.

Washington is a trendy add in a good matchup, and if Thomas misses the game, the needle moves slightly.

But theres too much uncertainty with him for my fantasy squad.

Ill put all three Bears receivers against Hopkins in this debate because who has more than one Bears receiver on their roster? Hopkins was unremarkable in his Chiefs debut, catching two passes for 29 yards.

As our Jacob Robinson and Dianna Russini noted in Wednesdays Scoop City , Patrick Mahomes targets his wide receivers at a league-low rate (45.8 percent).

Of course, Travis Kelce is Mahomes favorite target, and Xavier Worthy deserves looks, but the Chiefs have unsuccessfully tried to fill the void left behind by Tyreek Hill for years.

Can a 32-year-old Hopkins be the piece that finally fits? Each Bears receiver has had exactly one good fantasy game this season.

Moore is the only one whos caught a touchdown pass in more than one game.

In other words, it hasnt been great.

If youre still hoping Caleb Williams can sustain multiple fantasy-worthy pass-catchers, Im sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I dont see it happening.

This week is an ideal time to bet on a Bears receiver to go off against a Cardinals pass defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points overall (100.83), but who? Verdict? Im going with Hopkins, who has another week with the Chiefs and Mahomes under his belt and faces one of the best passing matchups for fantasy.

If you must start a Bears receiver, Moore or Odunze have the best floor/ceiling combos.

This battle is between high average draft position (ADP) and fantasy points (FPTS).

The sunk cost fallacy states that we are better off sticking with our crappy investment because we have already lost a lot of capital to it.

We need it to improve to save face.

Good investors will only lose so much before dropping an underperforming asset, and fantasy footballers should take notes.

Im not saying to drop LaPorta, but you certainly dont have to start him if you have the luxury of another option.

In Week 9, Detroit travels to Green Bay for a game with a high point total (47.5 points), and the Lions are favored.

The Packers defense has been good overall this season but allows the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

LaPorta ranks 23rd in utilization score this season (a Fantasy Life metric that considers snaps, targets, routes, air yards, catches, end zone targets and catches, etc.) behind Tyler Conklin , Tucker Kraft and Jonnu Smith .

Utilization is the key variable because LaPorta has an excellent 87 percent catch rate on 23 targets (30th in the NFL among tight ends).

Otton is a tight end who went undrafted in most fantasy leagues this summer but has outperformed many bigger names.

His sixth-place utilization score among tight ends has him third in targets and sixth in fantasy points.

Otton has been performing at a (relatively) high level since Week 3, but Tampa Bay has been without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for the past two weeks, giving Otton more opportunities.

Advertisement Baker Mayfield continues to dominate, leading all quarterbacks with 21 passing touchdowns (four more than Lamar Jackson at No.

2).

The Bucs face Kansas City this weekend, where they are underdogs in Arrowhead for Monday Night Football.

The Chiefs rank third in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

Verdict? We wouldnt be having this conversation if you were an alien and not subject to human biases.

Otton is the clear choice.

(Photo of Kirk Cousins: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images).

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