How much the Ballon d'Or is worth to a player - and why it's become such a big deal

It is, without exaggeration, the dawning of a new era in Paris tonight.

For the first time since 2003, there will be a Ballon dOr presented with neither Lionel Messi nor Cristiano Ronaldo among the shortlisted nominees.

A maiden winner of footballs most coveted individual prize is guaranteed.

Father Time has decreed it is the turn of the next generation and a glitzy ceremony at the Theatre du Chatelet in Frances capital will finally see new footballing royalty anointed.

Advertisement Vinicius Junior is the overwhelming favourite following his dazzling 2023-24 season at Real Madrid .

Supporters inside the Bernabeu sang, Ballon dOr, Vinicius Ballon dOr, on repeat after the 24-year-old scored a hat-trick in a 5-2 win over Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League last week, a repeat of Junes final when he also found the net in a 2-0 victory.

Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti needed no further convincing.

Vinicius Jr will win the Ballon dOr in my opinion, he told reporters in the wake of last weeks hat-trick.

He will get the award.

That is the expectation of most observers, yet his competitors have claims of their own.

Rodri , the sidelined midfielder of Manchester City , drove Spain towards glory at Euro 2024 and Jude Bellingham s decorated debut campaign with Real Madrid was also worthy of worldwide acclaim.

GO DEEPER Who should win the men's Ballon d'Or - Rodri or Vinicius Junior? It means we will almost certainly have a Ballon dOr winner in their twenties for the first time since 2015.

Closing the book on Messi and Ronaldo presents the opportunity for a new figure to be elevated to the most elite level.

The football world will be watching, as will those eager to attach themselves to the next great.

Commercially, its going to be a bit of a statement, says Owen Laverty, chief innovation officer at Ear to the Ground, a leading sports and entertainment marketing agency based in Manchester.

The 2026 World Cup (in the United States, Canada and Mexico) is going to be big from a commercial perspective and all the briefs wed get as an agency ask who the horses are that they should be backing.

This is the first indicator of that, a shift from the previous age.

Winning the Ballon dOr does not bring direct financial reward (there is no prize money on offer), but it serves as an emphatic endorsement, a surefire way to take their image to the next level.

That, inevitably, brings improved sponsorship deals and spiked levels of interest.

Tonights winner, in all likelihood, will be assured of a windfall agreed long ago.

Boot deals for players at the highest level commonly have a clause that is triggered should they win the Ballon dOr, a mutually beneficial arrangement that acts as a toast of success.

Memorabilia arrangements, too, will suddenly carry greater value if signed by the worlds best player.

Advertisement Most players will have a clause in their boot contracts that if they win the Ballon dOr, theyll get a big bonus out of it, says Ehsen Shah, chief executive of B-Engaged, an international sports marketing agency.

Thatll be the only commercial deal where winning the Ballon dOr will categorically get you this, but you do get other endorsement deals where your value goes higher.

The companies that sign you up will pay more for you because youre deemed to be the best player in the world.

Everyone wants the best player in the worlds autographed boots or shirts.

Theyre the only two directly impacted ones and all the other ones are subjective over whether a brand will go with that person or not because of what theyve achieved.

Theres no chronological way to say that Pepsi, for example, will only go with the Ballon dOr winner.

You can try to demand more in the market, but you can only charge what the brands are willing to pay.

Is anyone swayed that much by the Ballon dOr? Thats subjective.

And largely untried.

Only Luka Modric (2018) and Karim Benzema (2022) have broken the Messi and Ronaldo duopoly since the latter won the first of his five awards as a Manchester United player in 2008.

Vinicius Jr, already a poster boy for Nike, is primed to be the next test case.

The big unknown talk about is the commercial impact of winning it, says Laverty.

We believe it makes a difference but its untested.

For the last 15 years, weve only had two players who werent Messi or Ronaldo.

Benzema won it but then couldnt play in the 2022 World Cup and went to Saudi Arabia.

There was a burst of commercial interest in him but it dissipated so fast that its hard to prove through that theory.

Where its clear there is a commercial impact is the Ballon dOr Feminin (the womens prize).

People dont know the players as well and they almost need to be told who is the best.

It was a really useful tool in the marketing and brand world because it was a shortcut.

Straight away, Aitana Bonmati (last years winner) became a name that people wanted to be involved with .

The reality is that the best male footballers, such as Vinicius Jr, Rodri, Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe , Erling Haaland and Lamine Yamal , already have a well-stocked roster of brand partnerships.

Coming this far in their careers has attracted multiple seven-figure deals.

Their faces are already well known.

Advertisement The Ballon dOr, though, can still make a difference.

If you were working with the Ballon dOr winner, youd be looking at increasing commercial deals by at least 25 to 50 per cent, adds Shah.

Youll be able to align with that narrative that youre working with the best and thats all backed up with an award.

LeBron James has done that very well over the years (in the NBA ).

His brand partners are aligned with that elite, record-breaking, GOAT marketing.

The Ballon dOr became a very different trophy to chase in the age of Messi and Ronaldo.

It has always been a worthy prize, going back to its first winner in 1956, Englishman Stanley Matthews at the ripe old age of 41, but its significance has grown in an era defined by two relentless individuals.

Messi and Ronaldo won 13 out of 15 Ballons dOr between 2008 and 2023 and that rivalry has left a lasting impact.

The cult of the personality is stronger than its ever been, says Ged Colleypriest, a sports marketing expert.

The rise of the Ballon dOr coincides with the social media age, the constant debate over who is the GOAT.

The Ballon dOr has become a validation of that.

Its used to compare individuals and its become much bigger in this social media age where we have this need to say who is better than someone else.

Whether you agree with the outcome or not, the Ballon dOr has become part of the conversation.

Weve reached the post-Messi and Ronaldo era now and that spikes a bit of intrigue with the new pretenders to the throne.

Messi and Ronaldo have undeniably made the Ballon dOr matter.

Or, at least, more than it used to.

Mbappe has spoken openly of his ambition to win the big prize and some major transfers, such as Anthony Martials move to Manchester United from Monaco in 2015, include an add-on clause should the player win a Ballon dOr.

Advertisement The title itself, French for golden ball, has entered footballing parlance.

Pundits talk of an intangible, mythical Ballon dOr level, stirring debate around a players capabilities.

TNTs Rio Ferdinand opted simply to repeat the awards name nine times as Vinicius Jr netted in the Champions League final at Wembley in a 30-second clip that would later go viral.

Everyone watching that Vinicius Jnr performance...

pic.twitter.com/Gsy4t4SbY2 Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) October 22, 2024 It is hard to imagine anyone having the same immediate thought about Zinedine Zidane as he was winning the 1998 World Cup with France , but footballs focus falls increasingly upon the individual.

If we were having a conversation, even 20 years ago, and we were talking about the greatest players of all time, wed be listing the number of titles they had won, says Laverty.

Im not sure at any point wed have said, And hes got three Ballon dOrs and hes only got one.

Thats always been an NBA, NFL parlance.

Youd say a player had X titles, X MVPs and then stack it up.

Thats becoming more commonplace in football with the Ballon dOr.

All the research weve done is that it will continue moving towards the NFL/NBA model, where personal stats and accolades become really important because it demonstrates success for that person.

The Ballon dOr matters to younger fans.

The shift matters, too.

A new MVP in American sports can have commercial power strengthened overnight and those awards have traditionally counted for much more than a Ballon dOr.

Footballs subtle change, where players can be followed as much as teams by younger supporters, means individual honours bring greater validation.

And if the Ballon dOr carries a heightened significance for younger fans, it also does for brands eyeing up key partnerships.

When you get the MVP in the NBA, theres a completely different influx in how brands perceive you, says Shah.

In the NBA culture, youve got the broadcast going on and in every ad break, theres an NBA player in there.

We dont necessarily have that culture in Europe.

Advertisement The market has moved on now.

Youve got Mbappe with a good roster of brands, Bellingham with a good roster of brands, Vinicius and Yamal.

Their commercial work has already been done.

Those brands are all banking on that player becoming a Ballon dOr winner.

Do not write off Messi and Ronaldo, footballs commercial behemoths, especially with neither ruling out a last dance at the 2026 World Cup .

Yet the name read out in Paris tonight will give the strongest indication yet of where the line of succession will lead.

GO DEEPER Who should win the men's Ballon d'Or - Rodri or Vinicius Junior? (Top photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton).

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