Which Edmonton Oilers early-season trends are poised to improve?

Back when the Edmonton Oilers were truly awful, there were times when the underlying analytics numbers showed promise.

In those years, there was a coaching or management change every summer, so any progress from one administration was long gone by the time the new group fashioned the roster to their tastes.

Advertisement Fans grew tired of positive Corsi numbers and mocked Corsi Rel.

If the number was good, and the Oilers remained bad, how good was the stat? These long years later, some may have forgotten that good underlying numbers indicate a brighter future in the face of a bad stretch of Oilers hockey.

Ladies and gentlemen, we are here.

The record is poor, but the Corsis are dancing.

Are you ready? Predictions Despite a large group of fans who eschew the advanced math available to NHL fans, things like Corsi and expected goals can predict the future.

Oilers fans need only look back to last season in order to see the indicators of regression during hard times.

Here are the fancy stats before and after the firing of Jay Woodcroft one year ago.

Note that despite the turnaround in the standings (credit given mostly to the new coaching staff, led by Kris Knoblauch), the underlying numbers under Woodcroft suggested good times ahead.

The boulevard of broken dreams for NHL coaches often contains numbers just like these.

Woodcrofts Oilers had basically the same positive indicators as the team managed under Knoblauch, but the puck luck doomed another young coach and did it famously.

Ironically, Woodcroft won his final game before getting fired, which surely ranks as one of the most ridiculous small facts in Oilers coaching history.

A year ago, regression was a close friend to Knoblauch, making him look like a coaching genius.

Alas, hockey Gods are a fickle bunch.

How about this season? Early days Knoblauch is unlikely to pick up the phone to ask Woodcrofts advice, because the way is clear.

When a losing team is winning the shot share and expected goal share, especially over a short span of games, the key is remaining patient.

Some call it puck luck, others use words that are best left at the rink.

Lets take the Woodcroft numbers from a year ago and compare them to Knoblauchs team through the first seven games of 2024-25.

Its like looking in a mirror, but with more grey hair this time for all involved.

Preaching patience is difficult when all players are focused on a quick start.

Theories about the problem include lost foot speed and youth (offer sheet losses of Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway , the trade of Ryan McLeod ) to three new defencemen and the old favourite goaltending.

Advertisement The power play (just two goals in seven games) and the penalty kill (10 goals against in seven games) are also under fire.

What caught fans attention one year ago? On Oct.

23, 2023, Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic was writing estimates on a Connor McDavid injury that could keep him out for a couple of weeks (he would miss six games all year, but it looked dire at the time).

Added to injuries that reduced the effectiveness of Mattias Ekholm , Evander Kane , Ryan McLeod and Connor Brown , the Oilers were a mess through October.

Ultimately, it cost Woodcroft and Jack Campbell NHL jobs.

Who needs puck luck this year? Ideally, the Oilers will wait until the deadline to make the big move and delay any real roster shakeup until the team is past 20 games.

The following players are extremely likely to improve as the season wears along: Zach Hyman has zero goals and leads the league with the most scoring chances (22) without scoring a goal, via Meghan Chayka .

Last season he scored 54 and had a pile called back for sins real and imagined, so this season he may not reach the same lofty heights.

He will certainly score a lot, and soon .

Adam Henrique has played 83 minutes five-on-five and owns a 46.6 expected goal share.

His actual goal share is 2-5 (29 percent) and offensive output (one goal) is sure to improve.

Viktor Arvidsson has played 106 minutes in all strengths combined with zero points.

Mattias Janmark is 0-5 on-ice goals on the penalty kill.

You may recall he was 3-2 goals short-handed during last seasons playoffs.

Evan Bouchard and Ekholm are 3-4 goals at five-on-five, but Ekholm without Bouchard is 3-0 in 11 minutes.

With both Bouchard and Ekholm off the ice five-on-five, the Oilers are 3-9 goals (all numbers via Natural Stat Trick ).

The bad numbers will improve, and theres a good chance Ekholm wont go 3-0 in 11 minutes of five-on-five time over the rest of the season no matter his partner.

Advertisement Things to watch for in November If the defence continues to struggle, Oilers general manager Stan Bowman may choose to recall Josh Brown from the AHL Bakersfield Condors.

Theres a small chance a trade (like Timothy Liljegren ) is made, but the cap pressure is tight and the Oilers are looking to accrue to the deadline and then pursue a big name for the playoff run.

Its far too early to abandon the game plan.

Based on how well he has played lately, fans might want to have another look at Ty Emberson as an emerging solution on defence.

In his most recent four games, his five-on-five shot share (59 percent) and expected goals percentage (66 percent) are impressive.

He is 1-2 goals during that time and should improve his overall five-on-five goal share if he continues to play well.

Embersons adjustment to playing for the Oilers, along with the additions of Travis Dermott and Troy Stecher , is an underrated obstacle for the defence overall.

Its rare for a championship-quality NHL team to turn over that much of the defence without a significant name in the group.

Ekholm and Bouchard are rolling along, but Darnell Nurse is still searching the available talent pool for a suitable partner.

One area management must have a long look at if the struggles continue: Who evaluated the incoming defensive talent, and why did the team feel comfortable in dealing a veteran ( Cody Ceci ) with what amounted to zero cover? It may work out, but its fair to suggest this was a most unorthodox series of roster moves.

Bottom line The team is 2-4-1 with underlying numbers that suggest better results have been earned but didnt arrive.

Regression is coming.

Patience is the best plan for a team in Edmontons position.

Thats exactly what math people were saying when Woodcroft was still the coach in Edmonton, though.

Never take for granted the impatience of ownership and the loud voice of a powerful fan base.

(Photo: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images).

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