Dylan Holloway's ceiling? An NHL scout's evaluation, player comp for Blues' offer-sheet pickup

ST.

LOUIS Through his first three games with the St.

Louis Blues , Dylan Holloway ranks near the top of the NHL in a couple of speed categories.

Hes in the 97th percentile in skating bursts of 18 to 20 miles per hour and the 93rd percentile in bursts 20 to 22 mph, per the leagues player-tracking data .

Advertisement Thats no surprise to those who have watched Holloways first few seasons in the NHL, but its still hard for the 23-year-old forward to fathom.

Yeah, because growing up I was never a fast player, he said.

I was always a smooth skater, like I had a good stride, but I wasnt very fast.

When youre growing, youre still trying to work on your form as a kid.

It wasnt until my second year in junior hockey where it kind of clicked and I was able to beat guys one-on-one.

I think its just about staying low and striding in a fluid motion, as opposed to stride, bring it back, stride again.

The more you practice it, the more comfortable you get doing it, and thats how it clicked.

Now Im in the pros and everybody is fast, so its nice to get labeled as a fast guy.

That label was tantalizing for NHL teams debating drafting Holloway in 2020, especially the Edmonton Oilers , who took him No.

14 overall.

He showed some flashes in 89 games with the Oilers, posting nine goals and 18 points.

But a few unfortunate injuries, along with the fact that he was on a roster with Connor McDavid , Leon Draisaitl , Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins , made it next to impossible to climb the lineup in his three seasons in Alberta.

But now in St.

Louis after signing a two-year, $4.58 million offer sheet this summer, Holloway is looking forward to a new opportunity.

Just as hes been labeled a fast player early in his career, hes been described as a third-line forward who can play physically and help on the forecheck.

But hes hoping to prove hes got a higher ceiling than that.

I think coming here, Ill get more opportunity than had I done that in Edmonton just because Edmonton has got all that star power up front, Holloway said.

Not that the guys here arent good players; theyre really good players.

You kind of accept it, and honestly, you just try and play a role.

The team is so good and we went on such a good run that I just wanted to be part of it.

But I have the potential to be a top player and thats my goal.

Advertisement Ill be getting a little more opportunity here, and hopefully Im able to showcase my abilities.

I dont think people realize that Im still a young player.

This is my third year in the league and Im still doing everything I can to work my way up and become the player I want to become.

Its definitely a goal of mine to push for a spot in the top six, and hopefully Im able to get some special-teams minutes and produce and build my stock that way.

Think you can you do this? Would like to see you try.

pic.twitter.com/9f8N2wuzqa St.

Louis Blues (@StLouisBlues) October 8, 2024 The Blues will play their home opener Tuesday night against the Minnesota Wild , and itll be fans first look at Holloway and Philip Broberg in the regular season at Enterprise Center.

Broberg was also signed away from Edmonton this summer via an offer sheet and will make his home debut.

But while theres more certainty about the potential of the 6-foot-4, 212-pound left-shot defenseman, who has backed up that belief with his play early in the season, theres honest curiosity about Holloway.

I think weve got to take a step back because hes new to the organization, Blues coach Drew Bannister said.

Hes played really well, but I dont think were at that point of making decisions on what his ceiling is, what his basement is, or where he fits in the lineup.

We dont want to force him into a position like any young player were still talking about a young player where we put him into a position to fail.

So we want him to be comfortable, we want him to start having success, and then well get into that if we have to, moving through the course of the season.

Fair enough, but during a season-opening road trip through Seattle, San Jose and Vegas, in which the Blues went 2-1 with two come-from-behind wins , the top-line role and special-teams ice time Holloway had been craving finally came.

He started Game 1 in Seattle on left wing with Robert Thomas and Jake Neighbours , and hes on the second power-play unit.

On the scoresheet, Holloway has just one point a secondary assist on Brobergs goal in Seattle but in 40 minutes of five-on-five ice time, he has an expected goal share of 65.01 percent, per Natural Stat Trick , which ranks third on the team behind Thomas (69.6 percent) and Neighbours (66.33 percent).

Advertisement The first game in Seattle is the second-most Ive ever played in the NHL, so I was pretty happy, said Holloway, who logged 16:01 against the Kraken .

Thomas is a top player in the league, so I was just trying to get him the puck.

And Neighbours is super-good down low.

For myself, I didnt think that I was unbelievable.

I definitely have more and expect more of myself.

Im looking to have a good game here against Minnesota in our home opener.

The Blues shuffled their line combinations against the Vegas Golden Knights on Friday, and Holloway was dropped to third-line center.

With Brandon Saad returning from paternity leave Tuesday, Holloway is expected to remain on the third line but switch to the wing alongside center Brayden Schenn and winger Mathieu Joseph .

The new spot in the lineup is more a byproduct of the teams depth up front than Holloways early-season performance.

I thought he handled it really well, Bannister said.

There were some good spurts of hockey there, but he seemed to look more comfortable when we put him at center.

Hell probably play more wing right now with Schenner playing on that line, but I thought he played really good.

The speed factor, compete level, getting on the forecheck, physical theres a lot of good things to his game, and that third line is going to be a real good line for us right now.

The Athletic reached out to an NHL scout to get input on Holloways brief time in the league as well as a current projection for his future.

The scout was granted anonymity because of rules that prohibit scouts from speaking publicly about another teams player.

The scout sees Holloway as a good pickup with legitimate talent.

The opportunity in St.

Louis for him is far better than what he wouldve gotten this year in Edmonton, the scout said.

The reason why theyre a Stanley Cup-contending team is because theres no holes in the team.

But hes a very exceptional skater, hes got a big motor, his effort is very consistent shift to shift throughout the game.

The issue Dylan had in Edmonton ...

was just trying to figure out what kind of player hes going to be.

I think the ceiling on the player hes supernaturally gifted, but the concern is always the hockey sense and the ability to process the NHL game at the pace they can play at physically.

I personally dont see him higher than a third-line player just for that hockey IQ and processing ability.

But as he matures, maybe that helps slow the game down, he make less errors and he can be a top-six player.

Advertisement The scout said that Holloway had a penchant for certain mistakes while he was with the Oilers.

It was managing the puck leaving the D-zone that got him in trouble, the scout said.

He was trying to force too many passes through coverage, so just managing the puck was his bugaboo.

He would make an error and lose the coachs trust.

Like I said, it was being on a team that has aspirations of going far in the playoffs the margin for error is so small, especially for the depth players.

A few freak injuries also played a role in Holloway taking time to establish himself.

In his second-to-last game at the University of Wisconsin in 2021, he fractured his wrist, which required two surgeries the initial one and an additional one when Edmonton doctors determined that it wasnt healing properly.

In 2022-23, he separated his shoulder and missed time, and last season he fractured his kneecap.

Hes had a weird injury history since being drafted, the scout said.

Hes been starting and stopping for three or four years straight now, so his development has been stalled.

Thinking back four years ago, its hard to imagine that today hes just finally getting his everyday NHL status.

Its been a hard road for him.

I have lots of respect for the kid because theres been a ton of adversity that hes had to deal with.

The NHL player whos the best comparable to Holloway, according to the scout, is the Calgary Flames Blake Coleman .

Hes a middle-six forward who has 135 goals and 252 points in 545 games with the Flames , New Jersey Devils and Tampa Bay Lightning , with whom he won two Stanley Cup championships.

Those guys are so valuable, the scout said.

Holloway signed that contract (with the Blues) thats a little higher than what hes worth today, but ultimately, if you can have those third-line players that are under $3 million scoring 15 goals a year and playing those tough situations, theyre so valuable.

Overall, the scout believes Holloways signing was a smart move by Blues GM Doug Armstrong, who gave the Oilers a third-round pick as compensation, in addition to other minor assets in the final deal.

Advertisement I dont know what the percentage, but for a third-rounder to play 100 games in the NHL, its like an eight-percent chance, the scout said.

If you can bring in a player like Holloway, who looks like he should be an eight-year NHLer in some capacity, thats definitely worth it.

Holloways teammates Broberg and Neighbours, who knew him growing up in Calgary cant argue with that and they see an even brighter future.

Holls is great, Broberg said.

He has a very good work ethic.

He takes cares of himself off the ice and it shows.

His hard work and dedication will take him very far.

It will take him to the next level, for sure.

Hes been looking very good so far, so Im very excited to see what he can do this year.

Hes going to get an opportunity to play, and in some different situations, and with that experience hes only going to grow, Neighbours added.

His fundamentals, in terms of skating, shooting and handling the puck, are pretty elite.

Hes got the talent; its just about putting the pieces together.

As he does that, Holloway is happy to be one of the Blues new pieces and do his part in helping turn around the organization.

Weve got a really young core group of guys, and its a pretty tight group, he said.

Im meeting new guys and theyre very welcoming, and theyre great players, too.

As the years go on and guys get more experience, I think the future is only up.

(Photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images).

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