As NCAA raids talent, what happens to junior hockey? 'It's a little bit scary'

By this point in September, with CHL training camps underway and the regular season around the corner, general managers in junior hockey typically have not only set their rosters for the upcoming season but also sketched them out for several years to come.

That, however, is not the case in 2025-26, a year unlike any other for whats traditionally been the NHLs top development pipeline.

Advertisement I have a document that has three years (of roster projections) ahead of me, and I find that its almost a waste of time to have it now, said Mike Fraser, GM of the WHLs Everett Silvertips.

And thats a little bit scary and a little bit challenging.

The unease is thanks to a recent bombshell change that has rocked the junior hockey landscape: Beginning on Aug.

1, major junior players became eligible to play in the NCAA, leading to an unprecedented exodus as rosters across the CHL were raided and hundreds of players relocated to United States colleges.

Where it goes from here and whether it indicates a larger reckoning for major junior hockey is coming is a huge unknown.

Even for those living it.

Theres not a lot of certainty of what to do about it.

Theres certainly some nervousness, Fraser said.

I fully admit Im in that group.

I still think the caliber of play is still going to be really high in our league.

But I think everybody wishes they knew what the end result was going to be.

And nobody seems to know that right now.

Even at this early stage, the NCAA opening its doors to CHL players has produced dramatic results for some clubs.

The WHLs Victoria Royals, for example, have seven players headed to U.S.

colleges, including star 17-year-old defenseman Keaton Verhoeff and leading scorer Cole Reschny, both of whom committed to North Dakota right after the rule change was announced.

The Medicine Hat Tigers, WHL champions last playoffs, are down three pillars: Cayden Lindstrom, Ryder Ritchie and reigning CHL player of the year Gavin McKenna are now with Michigan State, Boston University and Penn State, respectively.

McKennas defection means the NHLs likely No.

1 pick next June will be headlined as an NCAA product and not from a small-town junior hotbed, as has often been the case throughout hockey history.

Advertisement Frasers Silvertips, owners of the WHLs best record in the 2024-25 regular season, have been left relatively unscathed thus far, only losing captain Eric Jamieson.

But that gives Fraser no great solace as he knows Everett could very well be next, with the NHLs plausible No.

1 pick in 2027, 16-year-old Landon Dupont, currently leading the team.

And Fraser is well aware of the David versus Goliath-like dynamic between small CHL markets and U.S.

colleges, as those schools often boast dramatically better facilities and a willingness to offer big financial packages, though name, image and likeness rules.

To date, the WHL has been hit the hardest so far among CHL leagues, something those around it say is due to the more onerous travel and high talent level, among other factors.

But few markets have been left fully unscathed.

I dont blame the players if theyre getting money like that thrown at them, I understand, Fraser said.

Its a tough thing to compete against if you want to call it competing.

I can sit there and talk to a player about our track record and how weve been the best development league for 50-plus years, but if someones throwing $100,000 or more at them, and thats what Im up against, thats a pretty tough sell for us.

In some ways, this new threat feels like an overdue challenge for junior hockey.

The CHL has thrived for generations in part due to a lack of competition as the undisputed highest level for junior-aged players eyeing pro careers, as previous rules barred anyone who played a single game in major junior hockey from ever going to the NCAA.

This stranglehold allowed major junior leagues to keep player stipends at the same meager level for decades; limit post-playing scholarship programs to a small share of athletes; and make teenagers play a pro-level schedule in some cases close to 100 games a season while trying to complete high school.

Along the way, there were other issues that often felt swept aside, including the prevalence of fighting among minors , bullying and harassment , and multiple cases of alleged sexual assault that only later came to light.

Advertisement Agents who represent junior players, meanwhile, say many CHL teams have fallen behind in marshalling resources for prospects to train and develop, a potentially pivotal factor for teenagers trying to improve their NHL Draft status and ultimately succeed in pro hockey.

On the other side, the NCAA offers a more limited schedule, less time traveling to games, a greater focus on education, and better staff and facilities for players to build up their bodies.

So even beyond the significant financial piece suddenly available for stars like McKenna, the U.S.

college system simply appears to be a better fit for many young hockey players.

And early indications from those involved are that, in this new world, NHL clubs are leaning toward wanting their players in the U.S.

college system versus major juniors, at least to the extent they have a choice.

That doesnt mean the CHL will fall out of hockeys development hierarchy.

It simply may no longer always be at the top.

Players who arent yet old enough to attend college, and those who arent ready to compete against older NCAA athletes, will likely continue to play for major junior clubs.

Many who previously sought to maintain eligibility by playing at the Junior A level one rung below the CHL, in leagues like the BCHL and USHL are already flocking to top teams like Everett to make up for some of the talent lost to U.S.

colleges.

Ultimately, the CHL may become a younger league overall, with fewer 18-to-20-year-olds and more high school-aged players as key contributors.

But WHL, OHL and QMJHL executives and owners are split on how to approach these new realities, complicating their ability to chart a unified course in the face of this existential threat to their dominance.

For now, the three CHL leagues are preaching patience and not panic while hockeys development system goes through this historic rebalancing.

Its possible the youngest players going to the NCAA this season will struggle to compete and find ice time, serving as a warning to future classes when they weigh whether to make the jump.

That could potentially result in more players staying in major junior until theyre close to aging out, similar to the status quo.

The worst-case scenario for junior hockey, however, is that the NCAAs plundering becomes more widespread, unbalancing the ecosystem to the extent that it drains talent from smaller markets, as players now hold more leverage than ever in determining where they play.

Can the Swift Currents, Prince Alberts and Shawinigans compete if theres increased pressure on CHL teams to step up their financial game to match that of NCAA schools? Will the old ways be enough for junior hockey to remain a vital part of the NHL development path for decades to come? Or will this would-be reckoning see even more players willing to flee the junior teams that drafted them and U.S.

colleges coming out on top? Advertisement Fraser remains cautiously optimistic, even as he continues to fend off NCAA talent scouts while his team prepares for a pivotal 2025-26 WHL season.

But he also believes the CHL will likely have to find ways to evolve in this new reality in order to succeed.

At this point, hes just not entirely sure how.

I grew up around the WHL, Fraser said.

I watched the (Brandon) Wheat Kings (in my hometown) my whole life.

Ive seen the league evolve and now have worked in it for 20 years.

This is an extreme case, but I certainly dont want to see junior hockey die.

I think its very important to the development process and brings a lot of joy to communities all over Canada and the U.S.

That part of it makes me nervous.

Thats probably an extreme (notion).

But the uncertainty is what scares people.

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