The most efficient market: Why betting on the NFL is so hard — and so irresistible

On the heels of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelces engagement, NFL bettors are set to rekindle their own romance only this is a toxic, breadcrumbing roller coaster.

Americas fascination with betting on professional football is second to none.

The NFL generates the largest handle of all sports, despite it being the most challenging one from which to profit.

Advertisement The overwhelming popularity stems from it being an incredibly digestible product.

The weekly cycle is less time-consuming than daily sports like basketball, baseball and hockey.

Second, unlike with college football, stars and marquee players have lengthy careers.

That regularity and familiarity wrongly convince bettors they are making educated wagers.

We always draw more money on pro sports than college sports.

Bettors feel like they have a better handle on the pros because theres not much turnover, DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello said.

People want to press the action on the NFL.

Most sportsbooks have six-figure limits for NFL wagers, while usually only allowing up to $10,000 or $20,000 for other major sports.

Even major college football games mostly have high five-figure limits.

However, that only occurs on game day when limits are raised, which is a critical component of this entire topic.

Professionals do bet on the NFL and routinely succeed, but their action often only occurs throughout the workweek and simultaneously is used as a resource by the house.

Conversely, a casino is self-sufficient, grinding profit because of the static odds of the dice, roulette wheel and deck of cards.

That math is clean and thus provides the house with an inarguable advantage.

A sporting event is much more layered and nuanced, so bookmakers implement an elaborate process to arrive at the proper odds.

Once those marked accounts stop wagering and this song and dance stops, bookmakers believe they have a fair point spread their version of the casinos mathematical edge because they charge a 10 percent vig (also known as juice), or hold, on losing bets, which is essentially a transactional cost.

Thus, sportsbooks are now willing to take major action on game day.

The NFL is the most efficient market in the world, and as such it has the highest limits, Circa Sportsbook Director of Operations Jeff Benson said via text.

It is incredibly tough to beat because you have some of the biggest players in the world participating, and the liquidity is massive.

Advertisement Additionally, fourth quarters seemingly always involve drama.

Over each of the past four seasons, the average margin of victory ranged between 6.5 and 8.6 points, which is why single-digit point spreads are so prevalent.

By comparison, college footballs opening weekend had numerous spreads above 20 points, while only two NFL Week 1 spreads are above 6.5 points and none above 8.5.

It seems like an NFL game can go either way, even if you think youre an easy winner early on, professional bettor Bill Krackomberger said, also sharing he is part of the midweek betting action but usually reserves Sundays for prop bets.

The garbage touchdown in the fourth quarter always matters.

Its amazing.

This is the source of the breadcrumbing toxicity.

Recreational bettors either experience a huge thrill with a frantic victory or are teased by their losses being so close to wins.

That tantalizing dopamine leaves a memorable impression and overshadows any negative feelings of lost money.

Plus, our brains can trick us into believing that life is incremental.

Being close to wins subconsciously convinces us that the next time will get us over the hump to a Sunday of profits much like that destructive person in your life who insists change is imminent, despite less reliability than The Boy Who Cried Wolf.

But for respected bettors who attack the NFL odds during the week and can skew the math by grabbing favorable numbers, it is a much different prognosis.

And naturally, everyone has their own method to the madness.

For example, after a couple of decades of juggling both college and pro football, professional bettor Erin Rynning will prioritize the NFL and ignore the college game entirely this season.

One reason is that this approach will allow him to remain mentally fresh in October when the NBA season starts, which is his specialty.

Advertisement Obviously, with college football having so many games, a team of handicappers can find five games and produce a higher ROI (return on investment) than I can with five NFL games, Rynning said via text, highlighting his one-man operation.

The NFL lines are tighter, but theyre still beatable.

However, professional bettor Paul Stone focuses solely on the college game, thanks to his Texas roots and teenage days of attending games with his family.

My work is college football, and I do it almost every day all year, so its a labor of love.

At some points, it becomes tedious, so if youre not passionate, youll start cutting corners and quit doing things that give you an edge, Stone said.

Also, with the transfer portal rampant among the 136 FBS teams with 85-man rosters, college football has forced some seasoned bettors into an extreme decision: concede it is too demanding nowadays, or pursue a potential competitive advantage even harder.

Chaos, clutter and confusion are the friends of a hard-working college football handicapper, Stone said.

If I am working full time and some oddsmaker is spreading himself thin on all sports, then I should be able to overcome the (house edge).

As is the case with any relationship, beauty is in the eyes of the beholder.

Professionals intensely prioritize advantageous opportunities and demonstrate the necessary patience until they surface.

Meanwhile, the betting public lacks that discipline and cannot resist wagering on Sunday morning even though they are betting NFL lines that documented, proven winners are mostly avoiding because they do not see value.

Family and friends would normally implore a loved one to end this type of unhealthy relationship, yet we all endure and even enjoy the perfect storm of volatility, dysfunction and heartache.

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