Will Mikhail Sergachev ever win the Norris Trophy? Here’s what the stats indicate

NHL Network recently released its annual top 20 defensemen list.

Utah Mammoth blue-liner Mikhail Sergachev came in at no.

18.

As always, the comments on the social media posts were full of nitpicks everyone in this day and age is an expert, after all.

But Sergachevs placement was one of the least contested.

It appears the majority of hockey fans believe Sergachev is the 18th-best defenseman in the world, give or take.

But wheres his ceiling? Could he someday add a Norris Trophy to his already impressive trophy case? Where is Mikhail Sergachevs ceiling? Sergachev has always been a good defenseman, but he played second fiddle as a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning most of his career.

Victor Hedman is one of the best to ever do it and Ryan McDonagh is no slouch either.

Sergachev was in the Sunshine State, but he spent that time in other peoples shadows.

The move to Utah proved that he is a true No.

1 defenseman.

He played more minutes per game than all but five other skaters in the league.

He placed fifth on the team in scoring, quarterbacked the power play, led the penalty kill and ranked 37th in the league in blocked shots.

Having just turned 27, Sergachevs best years could still be ahead of him and thats something he whole-heartedly declared at his exit interview in April.

Personally, I think its average, he said of his play in the 2024-25 season, with the sting of missing the playoffs for the first time still fresh in his mind.

I can be better in so many more situations on the ice.

And (more) consistent.

My standard is very high.

What would it take for Mikhail Sergachev to enter the Norris Trophy conversation? For most of Zach Werenskis career, he was in Sergachevs current boat: a solid number-one defenseman, but never perceived as top-10 in the league.

But last season, he popped off and finished second in Norris Trophy voting.

What changed? Well, everything.

According to All Three Zones data , he was much more involved in virtually every offensive category and his defensive zone numbers were night-and-day from one year to the next.

He also improved astronomically at zone entries and exits, as well as preventing opponents from doing the same.

The same data shows what Sergachev can do to improve.

His offense is well above the league average for a defenseman, but hes not the most effective at gaining the offensive zone.

Improving in that area would lead to more O-zone time, which creates more scoring chances and ultimately boosts counting stats.

Agree with it or not, offense is a major factor in Norris Trophy voting.

It goes to the defenseman with the greatest all-round ability in the position, not the one who keeps the puck out of his net the most.

If the Norris is in Sergachevs future, hell have to be pushing the 80-to-90-point mark, rather than 50-to-60.

He could also improve at preventing opponents from gaining the zone, which would turn into fewer goals against.

He does, however, excel at D-zone retrievals and exits, meaning he can get the puck out of his end efficiently.

Where does Mikhail Sergachev fit in the Mammoths development timeline? When he played for the Lightning, Sergachev was one of the young guys who helped push them over the edge on their way to becoming back-to-back Stanley Cup champions.

With the Mammoth, his job is to do what Hedman did in Tampa: lead the team both on and off the ice.

Hes already begun taking the leadership aspect to heart.

When he talks, everyone listens.

It earned him an A on his jersey and it was evident in the locker room that people respect him.

If he can break that barrier on the ice and find a few Norris-caliber seasons, the Mammoth will be in a great position to break out of the rebuild and into the contender stage..

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