2026 NBA Draft: College Returners Who Have Previously Hit Notable Statistical Thresholds

The 2026 NBA Draft is projected to be a class full of elite talent, ranging from the consensus top three freshmen in Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, and AJ Dybantsa, to star returners like Bennett Stirtz and Isaiah Evans.

Below, we take a look at a group of the latter--college returners who have hit notable statistical thresholds in previous seasons, giving them a significant historical probability to stick in the NBA.

JT Toppin, Texas Tech Toppin will be a junior for the Red Raiders this season, where he put up impressive performance after impressive performance last season.

The 6-foot-8, 210-pound forward averaged 18.2 points, 1.2 assists, 9.4 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 turnovers per game while shooting 67.8% at the rim (205 attempts), 48.4% on non-rim twos (184 attempts), 32.7% from three (55 attempts), and 67.6% from the free throw line (136 attempts).

While the shooting numbers from beyond the arc and from the free throw line could undoubtedly improve, it's important to note Toppin shot 56.5% from the free throw line his freshman season at New Mexico -- giving him an 11-point percentage improvement this past season.

Additionally, Toppin recorded a 14 offensive rebound percentage, 26.1 defensive rebound percentage, and a 7.6 stock percentage.

Why do his stats matter? Well, his production helped him end the season with a Box Plus-Minus of 10.6 , allowing him to meet the threshold for the Productive Sophomore Query .

47 college players have met the same criteria as JT Toppin from 2010-2022, and 32 of those 47 players ( 68% ) have gone on to play five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the league.

However, Toppin's incredible historical production doesn't stop there, as he met my Productive Young Athlete Query as a freshman at New Mexico.

This query has an even higher hit rate, with 77% of players meeting the same criteria playing five-plus years in the NBA or currently being in the league.

Read More: The Productive Young Athlete Query Nolan Winter, Wisconsin Winter is a rising junior for the Badgers who averaged 9.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 0.8 turnovers this past season while shooting 78.5% at the rim (107 attempts), 39.1% on non-rim twos (23 attempts), 35.8% from three (95 attempts), and 76.9% from the free throw line (78 attempts).

Additionally, the 6-foot-11, 220-pound big man recorded a 9.8 offensive rebound percentage and 21.2 defensive rebound percentage this past season.

These numbers resulted in him having a Box Plus-Minus of 9.0 last season, helping him meet the criteria for the Productive Sophomore Query .

As mentioned above, 47 college players have met the Productive Sophomore Query from 2010-2022, and 32 of those 47 players ( 68% ) have gone on to play five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the league.

Read More: The Productive Sophomore Query Thomas Haugh, Florida Another player who met the Productive Sophomore Query this past season, Haugh is a 6-foot-9, 210-pound wing/forward who averaged 9.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 1.1 turnovers per game while shooting 66.4% at the rim (110 attempts), 29.6% on non-rim twos (27 attempts), 34% from three (103 attempts), and 79.4% from the free throw line (155 attempts).

Additionally, Haugh recorded a 10.7 offensive rebound percentage, 14.2 assist percentage, and a stock percentage of five last season.

Haugh's 9.8 Box Plus-Minus helped him meet the Productive Sophomore Query last season as well.

Alex Condon, Florida Haugh wasn't the only Gator who met a significant statistical threshold last season, as Condon also met the Productive Sophomore Query .

The 6-foot-11, 230-pound big man averaged 10.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.3 blocks, and 1.4 turnovers per game while shooting 65% at the rim (160 attempts), 27.9% on non-rim twos (61 attempts), 32.8% from beyond the arc (58 attempts), and 60.4% from the free throw line (169 attempts).

While the shooting indicators (and rim percentage) aren't the best , his high shooting volume for a big is notable nonetheless.

Additionally, Condon recorded a 12.5 offensive rebound percentage, 19.3 defensive rebound percentage, 15 assist percentage, and a 7.5 stock percentage last season.

Overall, his impressive production and 9.5 Box Plus-Minus helped pave the way for him meeting the Productive Sophomore Query (68% stick rate).

Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois The 7-foot-1, 255-pound big averaged 13 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.2 blocks, and 1.6 turnovers per game while shooting 83.6% at the rim (67 attempts), 46.9% on non-rim twos (96 attempts), 35.7% from three (154 attempts), and 75% from the free throw line (64 attempts) last season.

Additionally, Ivisic recorded a 7.4 offensive rebound percentage, 22.2 defensive rebound percentage, 15.8 assist percentage, and a 5.2 stock percentage last season.

A 9.5 Box Plus-Minus helped Ivisic meet the Productive Sophomore Query this past season.

However, it should be noted that he's in a slightly different boat than the Winter's, Haugh's, and Condon's of the world, as Ivisic played professional basketball overseas before being ruled a "sophomore" by the NCAA prior to last season.

Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State The 6-foot-9, 240-pound rising senior averaged 13 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 2.3 turnovers per game this past season while shooting 69.4% at the rim (147 attempts), 38.6% on on-rim twos (101 attempts), 31% from beyond the arc (58 attempts), and 75.6% from the free throw line (156 attempts) last season for the Cyclones.

Additionally, Jefferson recorded a 8.1 offensive rebound percentage, 21.7 defensive rebound percentage, 19.6 assist percentage, 7.1 stock percentage, and a 17.8 turnover percentage.

Overall, Jefferson's production resulted in a Box Plus-Minus of 10.3 last season.

This helped him meet the criteria of the Productive Junior Query.

From 2010-2021, 25 of the 38 players ( 66%) who met the Productive Junior Query have played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the league.

Read More: The Productive Junior Query Andrew Rohde, Wisconsin Rohde hit a significant statistical threshold as a freshman at St.

Thomas during the 2022-23 season, helping him transfer up to Virginia for his sophomore and junior seasons and now Wisconsin for his senior season.

At St.

Thomas, Rohde met the Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) Query .

From 2010-2021, 60 players have met this query.

41 of those 60 players ( 68% ) went on to play five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the league--good company for Andrew Rohde.

While his production hasn't quite translated at the same level to high-major basketball, perhaps the 6-foot-6, 185-pound wing who shot 41.3% from three (104 attempts) and 77.3% from the free throw line (44 attempts) last season while recording a 29.7 assist percentage should be someone to watch for this upcoming season.

Read More: The Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) Query Isaac Celiscar, Yale Isaac Celiscar, a rising sophomore in the Ivy League at Yale University, is easily one of the most interesting names on this list of returners who have previously met significant statistical thresholds.

He met the Efficient Tall Freshman query this past season and is someone to watch for this season as his game progresses.

Karter Knox, Arkansas The 6-foot-6, 220-pound wing is a rising sophomore for Arkansas who met the Efficient Tall Freshman query (68% hit rate) this past season.

He's widely considered a projected first round pick for the 2026 NBA Draft.

Jacob Cofie, USC Cofie is a 6-foot-10, 230-pound big man who met the Efficient Tall Freshman query last season at the University of Virginia.

He transferred to USC for his upcoming sophomore season and is someone to watch for as a 2026 NBA Draft prospect.

Kwame Evans Jr, Oregon Kwame Evans Jr is a 6-foot-9, 200-pound forward who met the Efficient Tall Freshman query during his 2023-24 season at Oregon.

He's now a rising junior at Oregon and is someone to monitor as a 2026 NBA Draft prospect.

Mark Mitchell, Missouri Mitchell is a 6-foot-8, 220-pound forward who is a rising senior at Missouri.

He met the Efficient Tall Freshman query back during the 2022-23 season at Duke, and could be someone to monitor to see how his game progresses this upcoming season.

Tucker DeVries, Indiana The 6-foot-7, 210-pound guard played three seasons at Drake before transferring to West Virginia last season.

Unfortunately an injury cut his season short, but DeVries looks to bounce back this upcoming season at Indiana.

Known for his playmaking and shooting ability, DeVries could work his way into the 2026 NBA Draft conversations or receive a two-way as an undrafted free agent next offseason.

The queries mentioned in this article are best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.

For example, if a college basketball player has previously met one of these queries one season or is on track to meet the needed criteria of one of the queries during the season, then the player may be worth looking into.

Regardless, these queries should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect..

This article has been shared from the original article on si, here is the link to the original article.