Orioles’ Trevor Rogers isn’t a fluke. Just ask the hitters he’s faced.

SAN FRANCISCO Few people knew it at the time, but three months ago in Boston, Trevor Rogers turned his career around.Added to the roster as the Orioles 27th man for the second game of a doubleheader against the Red Sox, Rogers made his season debut after his 2024 campaign ended disastrously.

Whats happened since is something that would have been implausible before Rogers took the mound May 24 at Fenway Park.Since that night, Rogers has been the best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball.The left-hander is 7-2 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 13 starts this season.

That ERA since May 24 is the best among any MLB starting pitcher with more than four starts.

Over that span, American League Cy Young Award front-runner Tarik Skubal has a 1.95 ERA, while Paul Skenes, the favorite in the National League, has a 1.83 ERA.Skubal and Skenes can both throw 100 mph.

Rogers, meanwhile, averages 93.1 mph on his fastball.So how is he doing this?Red Sox hitters, who faced Rogers last week for the second time this season, were mostly mum about whats made the southpaw so dominant, wary of giving away intel about how they prepare for a rival pitcher in their division.

Sorry I cant Im not going to have much for you here, Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story said.But they all described how Rogers extension, high-spin fastball and pitchability make it difficult to square him up.I feel like when he releases the ball that hes releasing it at my freaking nose, Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran said with a chuckle.Duran, a left-handed hitter, said Rogers fastball is really jumpy because of his extension, which ranks in the 67th percentile in baseball, according to Baseball Savant.

Rogers average four-seam fastball spin rate of 2,410 revolutions per minute the metric that explains why a fastball can feel faster than it actually is is the sixth-highest among left-handed starting pitchers in baseball.

The names ahead of him on the list explain the impact of that figure: Cole Ragans, Shota Imanaga, Garrett Crochet, Kris Bubic and Kyle Freeland a collection of some of the best lefty starters in baseball.From a leftys perspective, its just an uncomfortable at-bat, Duran said.

I feel like those kind of guys, you almost feel like you have to cheat a little bit to try and get to the really good fastball.

So then that makes you really susceptible to the offspeed because you feel like you have to gear up for the fastball, and the next thing you know, hes breaking off a slider and you look absolutely foolish up there.His weapon arsenal is unbelievable.

Hes a really good pitcher, and hes showing it.

Its awesome to see a guy like that being able to do his thing, even if hes on the other side of the field.While Story and others werent as interested in dissecting Rogers success, every Boston hitter pointed to his fastball as a major reason for his success.Its an elite four-seam fastball, Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman said.That might be an understatement.

Rogers might just have the best four-seam fastball in baseball.Orioles pitcher Trevor Rogers made a few tweaks to his arsenal in the offseason, and he's been one of the best pitchers in MLB in 2025.

(Stephanie Scarbrough/AP)In Rogers 83 1/3 innings this season, opposing hitters are batting only .173 with a .236 slugging percentage off his fastball, which he throws about 40% of the time.

According to Baseball Savants run value metric, it is the best four-seam fastball in the sport on a per-pitch basis.

The run value per 100 pitches of Rogers four-seamer is 3.1; no other MLB pitchers heater is above 2.6.Its not just among fellow four-seamers that Rogers primary pitch is impressive.

By that same metric, Rogers fastball is the seventh-best pitch in all of baseball.

The only ones that are more valuable on a per-pitch basis are some of the nastiest pitches in the game like Garrett Crochets sweeper or Mason Millers slider.What could be playing a major role in the success of Rogers fastball is that its deceivingly fast.Not all fastballs are the same, you know? Story said.

Hes still a big dude and it just feels like its on you a little bit.

He still has a good fastball.

Its 93-94, but it plays really well.When a pitcher is touching 100 mph, hitters are geared up for that pitch, and the pitcher tends to rely on it more.

Rogers, meanwhile, can ramp his heater up to about 95 or 96 mph when he needs it, but he lives in the 92-94 mph range.

Story said a fastball like Rogers is devastating for hitters with holes in their swings.You just have to be direct [to the ball], Story said.

Especially with guys like that, theres a lot of the four-seam rise or the extension guys, I would say you just have to be very direct to the fastball and any type of loop is going to get exposed with that.The readings on the radar gun when Rogers throws a fastball might not seem like much, but its a stark contrast versus his velocity when he arrived in Baltimore at the trade deadline last summer.

His fastball was averaging about 90 mph and at times fell to 88 mph, a result of spending the past few years dealing with injuries that impacted his ability to maintain lower-body strength.

At that velocity, his fastball was much more hittable and Rogers suffered, ending the 2024 campaign in the minors.Determined to resurrect his career, the former Miami Marlins All-Star trained with Driveline in the offseason to regain his strength and his velocity, worked with Orioles pitching coaches to maximize his mechanics and took steps to improve his mental fortitude after what was the most difficult season of his career.How Orioles Trevor Rogers regained his confidence, velocity: Its in his DNAHes a competitor, said Orioles catcher Alex Jackson, who first caught Rogers during their days together in Miami.

Hes always been a competitor.

Hes a great person, and when he gets out on that mound, he just wants to win.Of course, its not just Rogers fastball thats made him into a budding ace.

He mixes in a changeup he has supreme command over, a sinker that induces ground balls and two breaking balls (a slider and a sweeper) that are successful against lefties.

Astoundingly, no left-handed hitter has a base hit off any of Rogers offspeed pitches this season.I feel like the way he just uses his pitches is really effective, Duran said.

Like, sometimes you get guys that are just throwers and they have really good stuff.

But I feel like hes got really good stuff and he knows how to command it really well, which makes you try to be really patient and I feel like thats when he picks you apart.

Its because youre waiting for your one pitch but hes so good that hes never going to give you the pitch youre looking for so.

I feel like thats what makes him really good.What separates Rogers from Crochet, Skenes, Skubal and the other dominant starters in baseball is that the Orioles lefty isnt striking out a staggering number of batters.

Rogers 24.1% strikeout rate is good especially within the context that he walks only 6% but its barely above average.

Thats why many advanced numbers project regression in Rogers future.

For example, his expected ERA a version based on the opponents quality of contact that is seen as more predictive is 3.02, still good but more than double his actual mark.Rogers wont record a 1.40 ERA for the remainder of his career, so there will be some reversion to the mean.

But Duran isnt expecting much.

In his mind, this version of Rogers isnt a fluke.At the end of the day, an outs an out.

Who cares if its a K or ground ball or fly ball? Duran said.

Hes kind of proven to the aspect of you dont have to be a strikeout guy to to be a dominant pitcher in this league.Have a news tip? Contact Jacob Calvin Meyer at [email protected], 410-332-6200 and x.com/JCalvinMeyer.Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers throws during the first inning of an August game with the Astros.

Rogers has a 1.40 ERA in 13 starts this season.

(Nick Wass/AP).

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