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Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Nick Castellanos, Giancarlo Stanton)

Updated Aug. 4, 2025, 7:31 a.m. by Peter Dewey 1 min read
MLB News

The trade deadline has come and gone in Major League Baseball, and its clear which teams are going all in to make the playoffs and which ones have decided to take a step back ahead of the home stretch of the 2025 regular season.

On Monday, Im looking to the prop market for some of my favorite bets, as the SI Betting team shares our favorite home run picks every day.

Even with a few players changing teams over the last week, there are still a ton of options to consider in the home run market, including two veteran sluggers in Nick Castellanos and Giancarlo Stanton.

Heres a breakdown of all of the home run props for the action on Monday night.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Aug.

4 Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run (+390) Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+350) Kyle Stowers to Hit a Home Run (+320) Philadelphia Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos has hit well against left-handed pitching in the 2025 season, posting a .289 batting average with four home runs and a .804 OPS.

While Castellanos only has 15 homers in the 2025 season, I love his matchup on Monday against Baltimore Orioles lefty Cade Povich.

In 13 appearances (12 starts) this season, Povich has given up 10 home runs and posted a 5.15 ERA.

He has not pitched in the big leagues since June 15 due to a hip injury, and this is a tough matchup to return to action since hes facing a vaunted Phillies offense.

Castellanos success against left-handed pitching makes him an easy target on Monday.

New York Yankees star Giancarlo Stanton missed the start of the 2025 season with an injury, but he has been solid since returning, posting a .268 batting average with nine home runs in just 123 at bats.

Stanton has an .846 OPS, and hes homered four times in his last 10 games.

On Monday, Stanton will take on a familiar face in Texas Rangers starter Patrick Corbin.

While the lefty has actually pitched pretty well this season (3.78 ERA), Corbin has been prone to the long ball and a ton of runs allowed over the last few seasons.

This season, hes given up 14 home runs in 20 appearances, although he has not allowed a homer in three straight starts.

In his career against Corbin, Stanton is hitting 9-for-27 (.333) with two home runs, three doubles and a 1.046 OPS.

I wouldnt be shocked to see him build on that success on Monday night.

Miami Marlins All-Star Kyle Stowers dominated the Yankees over the weekend, hitting a pair of home runs to push his total to 25 in the 2025 season.

Overall, Stowers is hitting .296 with a .947 OPS, but against right-handed pitching hes been even better.

Stowers is hitting .300 against righties with a 1.001 OPS, and 24 of his 25 home runs have come against them.

In fact, his first homer of the season against a lefty was on Sunday against New York.

On Monday night, Stowers will take on Jason Alexander and the Houston Astros, and Alexander has struggled so far in 2025.

The righty has appeared in eight games, posting a 7.36 ERA while allowing five homers.

In each of his last two starts, hes been taken deep.

Its hard to find a better matchup for Stowers, who is hitting .347 with 10 home runs over the last 30 days.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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