Maple Leafs Showing Low Confidence in Promising Forward

The Toronto Maple Leafs avoided their arbitration hearing with restricted free agent forward Nicolas Robertson.

The two sides finalized a one-year contract that will count $1.83 million against the salary cap during the 2025-2026 campaign.

The new contract has to feel like deja vu for the Maple Leafs winger.

The 23-year-old Robertson is hoping this is the deal that precedes his breakout at the NHL level and a much larger contract.

However, the results are likely to be more of the same.

Despite the promising talent and offensive upside, Robertson has never materialized as a top-six winger in Toronto.

Last season, he recorded a career-best 15 goals and seven assists for 22 points in 69 regular season games, as well as one goal and one assist in three postseason contests.

It was nearly identical to the 14-goal season he produced the year before.

The connection between each of the past two seasons for Robertson is lack of ice time.

Last season, he averaged 12 minutes of ice time during the regular season, but that number plummeted to below 10 minutes per game during the playoffs.

The season before, he averaged nearly 30 seconds less per game during the regular season, averaging 11:27 minutes per game.

Despite limited ice time, Robertsons produced.

He recorded 112 shots on goal during the 2024-2025 regular season, putting him in the 64th percentile of all NHL skaters according to NHL EDGE data.

His 15 goals ranked in the 65th percentile of all NHL skaters, showing again how he is able to produce with little opportunity.

Which is why this contract is strange.

The Leafs have again showed little faith in Robertson, evidenced by another one-year contract despite scoring 29 total goals in the last two campaigns.

The organization also reshaped their forward group this offseason in the aftermath of Mitch Marners departure .

The opportunity for Robertson to move up the lineup was finally there, but instead the Leafs added players like Dakota Joshua, Matias Maccelli and Nicolas Roy to round out their top three lines.

If the team wanted Robertson to feature more prominently this upcoming season, they wouldnt have felt the need to bring in three middle-six forwards.

Its all adding up to Robertson having a repeat of a season in 2025-2026.

Hell likely hit the 15-goal mark again, but the potential for more is dwindling.

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