Edmonton Oilers 2024-25 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman It wouldve been easy for the Edmonton Oilers to look at the way their last season ended, one goal from winning the Stanley Cup, and decide to give that exact mix of players another run.

It also wouldve been foolish.

It wouldve been wrong, too.

But it wouldve been easy.

Advertisement Instead, they went out and got better.

They respected the gift of having Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same team at the same time, and they did what they needed to do.

That hasnt always been a guarantee in Edmonton.

Now, theyre starting the season in pole position as the top-ranked team in The Athletic s projections for 2024-25.

The projection After coming so close to winning it all last season, the Oilers enter the 2024-25 season as the team to beat.

Thats what the model believed last season too, though this time theres even more bullish sentiment toward Edmontons chances.

The teams projected point total lands at 110.2, up from 107.2 and one of the highest totals this model has ever spit out during the preseason.

As for winning it all, Edmontons Stanley Cup chances jump from 15 percent to 21 percent, also among the highest.

This Oilers team is scary good on paper.

Most juggernaut teams get worse in the summer thanks to the salary cap.

The Oilers arguably got better a frightening thought for the rest of the league.

Its why their forecast is so high across the board.

This season, its the Edmonton Oilers and then everybody else.

The big question Is this the year? The question came up on a recent episode of The Athletic Hockey Show: How many points would McDavid have to score to surprise you? Is there any number he could realistically hit during the regular season thatd make you think more highly of him as an individual talent? Two stand out, to some extent.

Nobody in the history of the game, other than Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux, has scored more than 156.

A handful beyond that and McDavid would be averaging two a game.

For a guy who put up 153 in 2022-23, both are undeniably within reach.

Still, though would it matter? Would you care? If you already believe McDavid to be, say, the sixth-best player of all time, would a 160-point season bump him up to No.

3? Advertisement Thats a hard sell.

Its also a testament to just how transcendently good McDavids regular-season career has been through its first nine spins.

Hes the best player in the league.

Hes the best by a lot.

And if he never took another shift if he quit tomorrow at 27 years old to focus on woodworking or bass fishing hed leave a compelling case as a top-five player of all time.

The resume, though, would have a gap.

He knows it, and so do the rest of us.

Starting the season as The Athletic s Cup favorite isnt new for McDavid or the Oilers.

Their 107 projected points ranked first heading into 2023-24, and they almost hit the mark.

Not bad for a team on pace for 50 after 18 games.

Digging out of that hole and regaining their status as a team to fear not just by the playoffs, but some time in January was undeniably impressive.

What happened after that, though, makes this year feel different than the last.

They came as close as any team can to finishing the job, and they failed.

Theres no shame in that; at the team level, it can be a harbinger of positive things.

The Florida Panthers just experienced it, going from runners-up to champs over the course of 12 months.

When you zero in on McDavid and the class of player he belongs to in historical terms, the gotta lose before you win argument gets easier to buy.

Correlation isnt causation, and the sample size is small.

Thats the point, though.

Of the Gretzky-Lemieux-Orr-Crosby-Howe tier, only three of those players started their careers after expansion.

Of those three, two needed to play games with the Cup in the building a year before actually getting to lift it.

Gretzkys Oilers lost to the New York Islanders in the 1983 Stanley Cup Final.

A season later, it happened.

Sidney Crosby s Pittsburgh Penguins lost to the Detroit Red Wings in the 2008 Cup Final.

A season later, it happened.

If you think McDavid belongs in that group, this is probably the year he joins it.

Advertisement (The narrative is only getting tidier, by the way.

If you watched Amazons Faceoff: Inside the NHL documentary series, you saw McDavid sitting at his locker, weeping as he was announced as the Conn Smythe winner.

Its one thing for players like him to tell you how important championships are to them.

Its another to watch them show it.

That, more than anything else, is what makes the Amazon series a success.) Now more than ever, McDavid is surrounded by teammates who seem up to the task.

A No.

1 defenseman and a money goaltender have both emerged.

Players like Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson top-six wingers, true secondary scorers have been added to the mix.

McDavid, though, remains the gravitational force.

Its time to prove that its Edmontons year.

Its time to prove that its his.

The wild card Can Ty Emberson solidify Edmontons top four? A true contender cant trot out a second pair of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci on a good day, let alone against top competition in the playoffs.

Exit Ceci and enter Emberson.

Having just 30 games of NHL experience to this point makes Emberson a wild card for any team but theres extra pressure considering how much the Oilers have riding on this season.

Two things work in the Oilers favor here.

The first is his experience under Kris Knoblauch in Hartford back in 2022-23.

The second is Embersons trial-by-fire welcoming to the NHL after playing tough minutes in San Jose.

In Edmonton, Emberson should have a lot more support around him, and that includes Nurse who is better than the reputation-altering playoffs he just had.

Either way, the difference in the caliber of the Oilers forward group alone should help elevate Embersons game.

And despite playing in such a tough environment, Emberson showed some promising levels of play those 30 NHL games are all the model accounts for right now and were enough to give him a plus-4 projected Defensive Rating.

Advertisement In San Jose, Emberson showed glimpses of strong defensive acumen and mobility.

Despite playing through injury in a limited sample, he was a solid puck retriever with the Sharks .

If he can turn those retrievals into more possession exits, it should help give the Oilers breakout a spark from the back end when Evan Bouchard isnt on the ice.

The Oilers dont need Emberson to become the guy; they just need a No.

4 who can be a stabilizing force on that second pair instead of a liability.

Emberson can be that though the other challenge for him is to stay healthy enough for it to matter.

The strengths The Oilers have McDavid, the absolute and unquestioned best player in hockey.

Anytime someone even dares to enter the conversation as Nathan MacKinnon did with last years Hart Trophy win McDavid provides an instant emphatic reminder that there is no comparable to his greatness.

Winning the Conn Smythe on the losing side certainly qualifies.

Winning it while doing things only Gretzky and Lemieux have done before adds an exclamation point.

There is no equal in this era.

McDavid is chasing legends.

Hes also chasing the one thing those legends all have over him they were all Stanley Cup champions by Year 7.

McDavid is entering Year 10.

Thats not his doing.

Hes at the absolute peak of his powers and he, try as he may, cant win it all alone.

Even if hes the leagues greatest point producer, the leagues strongest play driver and the best player with the puck on his stick, hockey is a team game.

Even if he elevates in the playoffs better than almost any other in hockey history, there needs to be more.

The major thing separating these Oilers from past Oilers that failed to even make the playoffs is that there is more.

A lot more.

Its why they were just one goal away last summer and why they enter the season as a heavy favorite to finish the job this time.

Advertisement That naturally starts with Draisaitl, still around and still one of the most potent offensive players on the planet.

Theres no better second fiddle in the league and his presence behind McDavid, and on the power play, helps give the Oilers a massive edge.

That hes no stranger to bringing the heat when it matters most also adds to his lore.

Combined with McDavid, theres no bigger advantage in hockey.

The average playoff team has a combined Net Rating of plus-20 from its top two centers, 33 goals less than the Oilers.

The average playoff team is one McDavid short.

No team stacks up to that, or even comes close.

Only one team, Toronto , is above plus-35.

Essentially, 14 other playoff teams are at least one Draisaitl short.

Draisaitl has always been around, the difference is this version tilts the ice.

Last year the Oilers scored 61 percent of the goals with Draisaitl on the ice and earned 58 percent of the expected goals both way higher than usual.

Still, it cant be Draisaitl helping McDavid alone.

Up front, theres Zach Hyman , a forechecking menace who turned into a goal-scoring machine with 54 goals in the regular season and 16 in the playoffs.

Theres Ryan Nugent-Hopkins , who turned into a 70-point utility player who can fit in any situation.

And there are key depth additions to round things out: Jeff Skinners offense, Arvidssons two-way game and Adam Henrique as a solid third-liner.

All that gives the Oilers the leagues most dangerous forward group and best offense.

Sure, a lot of that is McDavid and Draisaitl, but Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins do bring immense value in their own right no other players have dominated alongside McDavid to nearly the same degree that those two have.

That top line earning 67 percent of the expected goals and outscoring opponents 34-20 is no joke those are career-best numbers for a McDavid unit.

But it also must go beyond the forward group and thats where the real key to all of this might be: Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm .

In last years preview, we noted the addition of Ekholm felt like a key that unlocked everything for this team, and that rang incredibly true last season.

The pair completely dominated with 61 percent of the expected goals, a product of their complementary skill sets.

Bouchard is an offensive zone rocket, someone who helps facilitate scoring chances to an incredible degree from the blue line.

Ekholm is the defensive conscience, a steady presence who does very well and helps drive possession.

Advertisement Hes found new life with Bouchard as his partner and Bouchard, in turn, has seen a meteoric rise next to him.

Hes not just a McDavid byproduct, he helps make everything click from the back end with his puck-moving prowess and has significantly cleaned up the errors in his game that once plagued him.

Its worth noting few defenders protect their blue line better than Bouchard does.

That pair has become rocket fuel for the top line and its no shock the Oilers took full advantage of that last season, often operating as a five-man unit.

If youre going to be a top-heavy team, you might as well go all in.

There were problems behind that pair in last years playoffs, but swapping out Ceci for Emberson might have been one of the savviest moves of the offseason.

Emberson showed a lot of defensive upside in a tough-minute role on the leagues worst team; he could be a stabilizing presence for Nurse who has a lot to prove after last years playoffs.

With Emberson beside him, the model believes he can do it and that the second pair has the potential to be a major source of strength.

No team has a higher combined Net Rating from their top four than Edmontons plus-30 nine more than the next-best team.

That could help Draisaitl especially, whose numbers suffered anytime Ceci was on the ice with him.

Over the last two seasons, the Oilers have earned 51 percent of the expected goals and 48 percent of the goals with that duo on the ice.

Without Ceci anchoring him down, Draisaitls numbers jump to 59 and 61 percent respectively.

Its a big deal.

Last but not least is Stuart Skinner in net.

Hes still young and expected to take a jump this season because of that, which is a big deal given what hes already shown over the last two years.

While he may sometimes look shaky, he does get results only seven goalies have saved more goals above expected over the last two years than Skinner.

While many will be tempted to call the Oilers The McDavid Show, this team as currently constructed is much more than that.

The core is loaded with talent and its that foundation that makes Edmonton the team to beat this season.

The weaknesses The Oilers are a top-heavy team, theres no skirting around that.

Their top is so good that it almost doesnt matter and it showed during last years run to the Cup Final.

Theyre the team to beat for good reason, but theyre far from a perfect team.

The teams depth looks like an especially weak pressure point, one that puts an incredible onus on the top guys night in and night out.

Outside of Henrique, the other five forwards in the bottom six all grade out poorly relative to the average fourth-liner not a good sign when two of those guys have to play on the third line.

Combined, the minus-46 Net Rating from the bottom six ranks 31st in the league, just one goal ahead of the Sharks.

Advertisement This is where the loss of Dylan Holloway is really felt as he was at least a capable third-line driver with upside.

The Oilers dont have that anymore unless Vasily Podkolzin surprises.

Shifts with the bottom two lines will be all about survival as its unlikely theyll be winning their minutes.

That issue extends to the teams sixth defenseman not a huge issue, but still an issue nonetheless.

Troy Stecher might be some analysts idea of a good time, and to his credit did well once he joined the Oilers, but he grades closer to a No.

7 here.

His work isnt very impressive given how sheltered he is.

At the very least, though, hes a massive step up from Josh Brown whose minus-12 Net Rating is the lowest of any defenseman in the league.

Hes a complete passenger whose on-ice results are truly harrowing.

Even some of the newcomers come with question marks.

Jeff Skinner should be an asset offensively, but he doesnt drive play in transition and his reputation without the puck is an accurate one hes a severe drag there.

Arvidsson is better in that regard, but hes still not an ideal feature winger on a second line.

Draisaitls presence should mitigate that and both players will be the best offensive options hes ever had but they arent without their flaws.

As for Emberson, while the model loves him, hes still unproven and comes with availability issues.

Being top-heavy isnt necessarily a bad thing and it works in Edmontons favor as the leagues best team.

But it does mean more lineup spots can be picked apart where more heavy lifting from the top six is needed in the matchup game.

Hockey is a strong-link game and no team has stronger links than the Oilers, but the weak links are significant enough that they may mean Edmontons season is cut shorter than the Oilers hope.

The best case The offseason improvements give the Oilers their deepest team of the McDavid era.

They cruise to a Presidents Trophy on the back of the leagues best core and win the Stanley Cup in decisive fashion.

The worst case Skinner, Arvidsson and Emberson struggle in a new locale, the core takes a step back after the summer, and the Oilers look shaky come playoff time.

They get swept by the Vancouver Canucks in the second round.

The bottom line The Oilers have the long-term pieces in place to continue making deep runs into the playoffs, but they may never have a better opportunity to finish on top.

For their superstars and quality depth players alike, its there for the taking.

References How the model works How the model adjusts for context Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder Read the other 2024-25 season previews here .

(Photo of Connor McDavid: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.