NHL’s 10 best contracts, 2025 edition: Jack Hughes, Brandon Hagel and more

In the NHL, contracts matter.

For better or worse, every player is judged based on the money he makes and whether hes worth the price.

This piece is about the players who are well worth the money the best deals in the league.

Its when you ask yourself, How is this guy making that much? but in a good way.

There are a number of team-friendly deals out there.

According to each players projected value over the remainder of their deals, these are the leagues 10 best contracts.

The goal here is to grade contracts empirically with the same context being applied to each player across the league: how much value does each player bring to the table per year and over the life of the contract? The way its measured involves comparing a players Net Rating and the expected salary associated with it to a players current contract .

Advertisement What players have already done holds no merit; this is about the future value of the deal with age effects based on player comps taken into account while accounting for expected salary growth.

Contract clauses and bonus structure are important, but not considered with this assessment.

Players on LTIR were not considered.

1.

Jack Hughes Contract: $8M x five years Surplus Value: $38M Positive Value Probability: 99.9 percent The best contract in hockey belongs to Jack Hughes.

As the cap continues to climb, Hughes modest $8 million cap hit continues to look more audacious each season.

And theres still five years remaining on it.

For roughly the price of one Elias Lindholm, the Devils get a franchise center, a borderline MVP threat and one of the leagues most impactful players.

Going into next season, only seven players are projected to provide a bigger game-to-game impact than Hughes.

Over the life of his deal, Hughes has a very real chance of becoming a top-five player in the sport.

Thats a big step up from whats expected of an $8 million forward, which is to provide low-end, first-line value.

The difference between what Hughes is and what his contract demands is massive, the largest in the league.

Its what informs the chances of Hughes living up to his deal, a laughably high 99.9 percent.

This deal is as good as it gets.

2.

Brandon Hagel Contract: $6.5M x seven years Surplus Value: $43.0M Positive Value Probability: 98 percent When Brandon Hagel signed an eight-year extension in the summer of 2023, he was coming off a breakthrough 64-point season an impressive feat given his lack of time on the top power play.

Combine that with his ability to drive play and Hagel was starting to look like a core piece for the Lightning as a potential top-line threat.

The max-term deal was a no-brainer, and while there was some sticker shock for some, the $6.5 million cap hit looked like one that would age pretty well (his market value at the time was around $7 million).

Advertisement Today, the only shock is what Hagel has become: one of the best wingers in hockey.

Hagels rise since signing has been meteoric, culminating in a spot on Team Canada amidst a season where he scored 35 goals and 90 points while finishing top 10 in Selke voting.

Hagel has become a star, doing most of his damage at five-on-five, where only two players scored more points than him last season: David Pastrnak and Nikita Kucherov.

Hes the real deal.

Naturally, that kind of production and defensive utility is going to be worth a lot of money, enough to nearly double Hagels cap hit, given his age and the rising cap climate.

It may still be a shock at how valuable Hagel has become, but theres no denying hes become an eight-figure player after last season.

With seven years left on his deal, Hagel has one of the absolute best contracts in hockey.

3.

Seth Jarvis Contract: $7.4M x seven years Surplus Value: $38M Positive Value Probability: 99.7 percent When Seth Jarvis signed last summer, the deal already looked like an immediate steal.

After a breakthrough season, Jarvis already looked like a player who would be worth well over $10 million per season during the life of his deal.

That the Hurricanes were able to get him for max term at a paltry $7.4 million felt like a massive win.

We saw that play out last season when Jarvis proved his status as a future franchise star.

He upped his point pace from 67 to 75, continued to shine defensively and made Team Canada as a result.

Jarvis had arrived, and at 23, theres still more room for him to grow, too.

He has a real chance to win a Selke Trophy when all is said and done, an incredibly rare feat for a winger.

That defensive ability is what really sets Jarvis apart, allowing the Hurricanes to gain more surplus value over a similar scoring forward.

Points are usually what pay the bills, and if Jarvis were only average defensively, his value would be closer to his cap hit.

That hes already one of the games best defensive forwards is what puts his contract over the top.

His game carries a lot of substance.

Advertisement 4.

Sam Reinhart Contract: $8.6M x seven years Surplus Value: $37M Positive Value Probability: 96 percent Of all of Floridas deals that make non-Panthers fans scream come on in unison and blame state taxes , this one remains the most infuriating.

For Panthers fans, its yet another substantial win.

Fresh off a year where Reinhart scored 57 goals and finished fourth in Selke voting, the Panthers seemingly got to pretend that season never happened during contract negotiations.

Reinharts $8.6 million cap hit makes a lot more sense based on what he was after his 2023-24 season, and not based on the seismic leap he took in 2024-25.

Was regression likely? Yes.

But not to the degree that Reinhart ended up making $3 million less than his contemporaries such as William Nylander and Elias Pettersson.

If that was the market for a 90-point forward, Florida went way under it.

Those savings probably afforded the Panthers the ability to trade for Brad Marchand and the rest is history.

What adds further salt to the wound is that Reinhart is not only cheaper than Nylander and Pettersson but also probably better.

Thats because of his defensive game, which has finally received the respect it deserves over the last two years.

While Reinharts production did predictably regress last season, his defensive game took another step enough to finish second in Selke voting behind teammate Aleksander Barkov.

Over the last two seasons, Reinhart has cemented himself as one of the leagues best players.

For the next seven years, hell be an absolute steal.

5.

Nathan MacKinnon Contract: $12.6M x six years Surplus Value: $34M Positive Value Probability: 99.5 percent Nathan MacKinnon is a top-three player in hockey.

Some people might have him second, some might have him third and some might even have him first.

But its unlikely youll find someone who has him outside that range.

MacKinnon is one of the best players alive, and for the next six years, he wont be paid like it not to the degree he should anyway.

As was the case during his first contract, MacKinnon is once again massively underpaid.

Advertisement That was the case when MacKinnon signed his deal for just $100,000 more than Connor McDavids league-leading AAV just not to this degree.

Two things have changed since then.

The first is that MacKinnon, somehow, took another step.

And the second is that the cap is set to explode to a point where $12.6 million is a modest sum for a player of MacKinnons ilk.

In the 2025-26 season, it already represents just 13.2 percent of the cap.

By Year 6, it could be less than 10 percent.

You dont need me to tell you MacKinnon is worth a much higher percentage of the cap.

Its the percentage of cap calculation and the length of the deal that gets MacKinnons market value to the exorbitant figure you see above: $18.3 million.

Thats obviously going to feel high under a $95.5 million salary cap, but it wont be when the salary cap starts hitting $115 million or $125 million, where its closer to 15 percent of the cap.

If that still feels high, just think of the two big deals that were just signed for Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner: both at a fair $12 million.

Two superstars, yes, but not anywhere near MacKinnons level.

Theyre top-20 players MacKinnon is top three.

How big is that difference and how many more millions is that worth? About $6 million by my estimate, giving MacKinnon one of the best deals in the sport.

6.

Leon Draisaitl Contract: $14M x eight years Surplus Value: $35M Positive Value Probability: 95 percent Everything said about MacKinnon above also applies to Leon Draisaitl here.

The difference is that Draisaitls deal is richer and longer.

That means less value per season, but a similar amount of total value thanks to those two extra years.

While Draisaitl has the leagues richest contract, the last year has made all the difference with regard to its perception.

What looked like a fair deal when it was signed now looks like a steal thanks to Draisaitls personal leap in performance timed with the rising cap environment.

Advertisement On the Draisaitl front, he was the leagues best skater last year as a result of a much-improved defensive game.

While Draisaitls defensive play had already grown relative to his early days, last seasons jump put him on the fringes of Selke discussions.

He reached a new level that put him in the conversation among the leagues best 200-foot players and it didnt come with any offensive sacrifice either.

Draisaitl looked like a whole new player, one whose projected value rose by four goals.

The bigger news was the rising cap.

While it was always assumed that the cap had a lot of room to catch up with hockey-related revenues, it was difficult to expect the seismic leaps that were confirmed over the next three seasons.

That put Draisaitls $14 million in a new context, one where the expected Net Rating from the deal starts at his level in Year 1, but drops substantially to first-line level by the end of it.

Combine those two things, and the Oilers once again get Draisaitl on an eight-year deal for a lot less than hes worth.

7.

Dylan Guenther Contract: $7.1M x eight years Surplus Value: $33M Positive Value Probability: 88 percent The Utah Mammoth were wise to extend Dylan Guenther one year early, locking him up for his entire prime at a bargain rate.

What may have seemed pricey after just 78 career games was a savvy move for a rising star, especially before the news that the cap would skyrocket.

Now, the Mammoth hold one of the best contracts in hockey: a player with point-per-game upside at just $7.1 million for the next eight years.

What looked like a potential steal at the time was only confirmed last season after Guenther scored at a 70-point pace in his first full NHL season.

He looks like a future star, which only makes this deal look better with each passing year.

While $7.1 million is fringe first-line money now, itll be closer to average top-six money over the life of Guenthers deal.

Theres a very good chance that Guenther is a lot better than that during his prime.

At his age, theres also a chance that he ends up even better than projected.

Guenther is on track for stardom, but theres upside beyond that if everything goes right.

If he can add another level to his game, Guenther has a shot to not only be on this list for years to come, but to be near the top of it.

Advertisement Well see what his second full season holds, but right now it looks like Utah got a spectacular deal.

8.

Lucas Raymond Contract: $8.1M x seven years Surplus Value: $31M Positive Value Probability: 92 percent Lucas Raymond has reached another level.

That was clear to close out the 2023-24 season and confirmed the following year with a near point-per-game season.

Raymond is the real deal and the Red Wings are about to benefit greatly from it.

Thats because of his $8.1 million cap hit, an amount that will equate to a high-end second-line player during the remainder of Raymonds deal.

Its a mark he looks likely to blow past.

Raymond is already a bona fide top-line talent and looks likely to ascend to stardom as he enters his prime.

Hes on track to become a franchise winger, a legit star-level threat and his current price tag is a pittance for the kind of value he should bring.

Raymonds deal looked like a win last year before he truly established his current level.

Now, its a slam dunk.

The fruits of Detroits rebuild are finally coming together.

9.

Matt Boldy Contract: $7M x five years Surplus Value: $27M Positive Value Probability: 97 percent To understand Matt Boldys value, it might be best to list some of his best comparables at the same age: Mark Stone, Sam Reinhart, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk.

Superstars and Boldy looks like he could end up on the same track.

Getting to that point means taking another step beyond the 75-point pace hes enjoyed the last two seasons.

Maybe that will come.

Maybe it wont.

Even if he stays at his current level for the foreseeable future, though, Boldy is still a tremendously valuable player, one with underrated two-way ability (hence the Stone and Reinhart comps).

Thats worth a lot, especially over the next five years, which will take up his entire prime.

Advertisement From this point forward, Boldy will essentially be paid second-line money at $7 million.

Hes already several leagues above that and only getting better.

If he can turn into an 85-95 point player, this deal will be an even larger steal than it already is.

10.

Tim Stutzle Contract: $8.4M x six years Surplus Value: $26M Positive Value Probability: 94 percent Last but not least is another young star signed long-term who looks primed for superstardom.

Tim Stutzle flirted with that level in 2022-23 after a 90-point season, but was still fine-tuning his defensive game.

Last season, he took a major step forward in that regard and looks set to reach another level as a result.

It remains to be seen just how high Stutzle can climb, but the upside is obvious now that hes showcased a larger capacity to be a 200-foot player while still being an offensive force.

Stutzle is on a star trajectory, but could reach even higher with an unexpected leap.

Either way, his play is already well above whats expected of his $8.4 million cap hit.

With six years left on his deal, the gap between what Stutzle does and what hes paid for will only widen further.

Honorable Mentions: Josh Morrissey, Jake Sanderson, Mikey Anderson, Aleksander Barkov, Shea Theodore (Top photo of Jack Hughes: Luke Hales / Getty Images).

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