JAY DUNN: Trade wind are swirling and executives around MLB have big decisions to make
At the moment at any moment there are exactly 500 people who are the CEO of a Fortune 500 enterprise.
There are exactly 100 who are United States senators.
There are exactly 50 who are state governors.
There are only 30 who are the general manager of a major league baseball team.
Only 30 whose guts are wrenching and brains are twisting like pretzels at this time of year.
The trade deadline is right around the corner.
It will arrive at exactly 6 p.m.
on July 31, which means that over the next few days those GMs wont have much time to eat or sleep.
They all have agendas and most of them will have decisions to make.
Many will have multiple options options that may be dependent on what other GMs decide to do.
Some will have to make momentous decisions almost on the spur of the moment.
All 30 will exhale deeply at 6:01 p.m.
next Thursday, but by then many major league players will have changed uniforms.
Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez is likely to be one of them.
Suarez leads the major leagues in RBIs and tops the National League in home runs, but he will become a free agent at the end of the season.
Hes the kind of player who can make a heavy impact on the pennant race and two contenders in particular the Yankees and Cubs are desperately seeking a third baseman.
The Mets, Dodgers and Mariners are believed to be interested as well.
But first, Arizona GM Mike Hazen has to decide whether or not he wants to trade Suarez to anybody.
After play on Tuesday, the Diamondbacks were 6 1/2 games out of the National League wildcard.
If Suarez is traded the Diamondbacks will be telling their fan base that theyve given up on the season.
If they keep Suarez and he departs at the end of the season the Diamondbacks will get an additional pick in next years draft somewhere between the 30th and 40th overall selection.
The general manager of any potential buyer knows he will have to offer a package that would be more valuable to the Diamondbacks than that draft pick.
That would probably entail giving up good prospects and those prospects would be gone forever, After the season, Suarez would probably be gone too.
The buyer would actually be a renter, and renters do not get compensatory draft picks if their players elect free agency.
Mike Chernoff, the GM of the Guardians, is in a position similar to Hazens.
In fact, he might have an even tougher call to make because his team is only 2 1/2 games out of a wildcard berth in the American League.
The gem at his disposal is Emmanuel Clase, who is probably the best closer in the major leagues.
Like Suarez, he is eligible to become a free agent at the end of the season.
For now, however, there isnt a single contending team especially the Phillies that wouldnt like to have him for the stretch run.
But what would each of those teams give up for a rental? Thats the sort of issue that makes GMs heads spin and makes their stomachs gurgle.
Some might gurgle twice.
For example, the Braves are in a murky circumstance.
They know theyve fallen out of the race this year, but they dont regard themselves as being in a rebuilding mode.
Theyve made it clear that their best player, Ron Acuna, Jr.
is not on the block.
However, the emergence of rookie catcher Drake Baldwin leaves them with a surplus at that position.
It wouldnt be surprising to see them deal veteran Sean Murphy, who might fetch a handsome return since hes a quality backstop who cannot become a free agent before 2030.
Starting play on Wednesday, the Red Sox held onto the final American League playoff slot by half a game.
They might become buyers and sellers since they find themselves with a surplus of outfielders and would certainly get a nice return if they parted with Jarren Duran.
Duran, who cannot become a free agent before 2030, last year led the majors in both doubles and triples.
The Mariners are the only existing team that has never played in a World Series.
Theyve been to the playoffs only once in the past 24 years.
No fan base is hungrier for a winner, and this could be the year.
Seattle is likely to be an aggressive buyer, especially since its farm system features seven players rated in the top 100 by MLB.com.
Their lineup would benefit from a little more boost, but theyre in a perfect position to help themselves.
The Yankees are in an imperfect position.
MLB.com rates New Yorks minor league system as the 24th best.
Bleacher Report ranks it 26th.
The Yankees need starting pitching and infield help, but it isnt clear what theyll be able to give up in order to get it.
And the Phillies? Last week a television network announcer expressed his view that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing on the Phillies.
Dave Dombrowski immediately disputed that assertion.
Dombrowski is Philadelphias president of baseball operations, which is just a fancy name for a general manager.
He said he thinks the Phillies have plenty of life both now and in the immediate future and the window will remain open.
Huh? Does he really believe that? The Phillies are in first place leaky bullpen and all but they are in first place with an aging team that last year went into neutral during the dog days and then laid a rotten egg in the postseason.
If they make no deadline moves theyll head into this years dog days with essentially the same group just one year older.
Three of the key players Kyle Schwarber, J.T.
Realmuto and Ranger Suarez are likely in their last year with the Phillies.
Three others are veterans who are tied to long-term contracts that could drain the payroll in the years to come when these players are well past their peaks.
All of this would suggest the Phillies are in now-or-never mode, or at least they ought to be.
If they want to make an all-out push, they probably need to get a relief pitcher and at least one new addition to the lineup.
Clase, of course, would fulfill the bullpen needs, but that might be reaching for the moon.
If Clase goes on the market, the Guardians will be flooded with offers.
The Phillies might have to bolster their bullpen some other way but there will likely be other good options.
However, theres an ideal candidate to be the new everyday piece and hes likely gettable Duran.
At what price? Theres the rub.
According to MLB.com, the Phillies have four minor leaguers among the top 100 prospects and two of them are on the verge of reaching the majors.
The Phillies would probably have to surrender one of those prospects to get Duran and possibly another to get a good relief pitcher.
If their strategy is to go all out in pursuit of a 2025 dream, thats what they will do.
If Dombrowski is determined to keep the window open into the foreseeable future, he has to keep his best prospects.
The Phillies cant do both.
It will be one or the other, and well soon know which one.
A FEW STATISTICS (Wednesdays games not included): Kevin Stowers of the Marlins is batting .368 with nine homers in the month of July ...
The Pirates are 28-24 at home but 13-37 on the road ...
The Mariners have scored 468 runs, which is ninth best in the majors.
However, they lead the majors in runs scored from the seventh inning on, with 177 ...
Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks had three triples last week and now leads the majors with 13 ...
The Dodgers are hitting .435 with runners in scoring position ...
Tigers starter Tarik Skubal has issued 1.1 walks per nine innings and struck out 11.6 per nine.
He leads the majors in BOTH categories ...
The Phillies are 46-27 in games in which a right-handed pitcher has started against them.
Against southpaw starters they are 12-16 ...
Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers has scored 95 runs.
Thats 19 more than any other National Leaguer ...
Cubs manager Craig Counsell has succeeded in overturning 20 umpires calls this season ...
Seth Lugo of the Royals has made 18 relief appearances.
He has retired the first hitter he faced 17 times ...
Nick Kurtz of the Athletics has 19 homers and 46 RBIs.
He leads major league rookies in both categories ...
Jose Soriano of the Angels has induced 23 batters to ground into double plays.
Thats seven more than any other pitcher ...
Overall attendance is down by about 120,000 compared to last year.
The largest drop-off is in Tampa Bay where the Rays have been forced into a minor league park.
St.
Louis and Baltimore have also experienced large decreases.
Former Hall of Fame voter Jay Dunn has written baseball for The Trentonian for 57 years.
Contact him at [email protected].
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