TCU Football Opponent Preview: Baylor Bears

This coming season for the Baylor Bears carries a lot of optimism thanks to a six-game winning streak to close out last year's regular season.

But with optimism comes expectation and, with expectation, burden.

Dave Aranda managed to save his spot in Waco, but this seasona year in which Baylor returns almost everybody from an elite offensehe must take a step forward, or confidence will again wane.

Will Baylor prove that it's returned to Big 12-contending status, or will the second half of 2024 be a flash in the pan? TCU welcomes its arch rival in Week 8 this year.

We'll preview Baylor at TCU as the game gets closer.

For now, let's take a look at Baylor for the 2025 season, and we can expect from what should be a dangerous team in the conference.

To count down until kickoff, tune in every week with TCU On SI for an extensive preview on every foe the Horned Frogs face this fall.

2025 Baylor Football At A Glance Name : Baylor Bears Stadium : McLane Stadium, Waco, TX (capacity: 45,140) Head coach : Dave Aranda (6th season) Offensive coordinator : Jake Spavital Defensive coordinator : Matt Prowledge (Aranda calls the plays) 2024 record : 8-5 (6-3 Big 12) Baylor Football In 2024: A Preview Of What's To Come? Heading into its Week 7 bye, Baylor sat 2-5 with no wins against Power Conference teams, and it looked like Aranda was going to lose his team and his job with it.

Instead, he rallied the troops, made some significant offensive adjustments, and won the last six games of the regular season.

Aranda took over defensive play calling duties, a decision that appeared to be a mistake early onBaylor surrendered 38, 34, and 43 in its first three conference games, all lossesbut one that improved and appeared to pay off as the season progressed.

The Bears still finished 73rd in points per drive allowed, but they held their last two opponents to 10 and 17 points (Houston and Kansas).

A nonexistent pass rush plagued this unit all season long.

Fortunately, Baylor also rostered an offense that was nearly unstoppable over its last six games.

Only once did an opponent hold Baylor to under 37 (Houston).

QB Sawyer Robertson emerged as one of the best QBs in the Big 12, throwing for over 3,000 yards and for 28 touchdowns against just eight interceptions.

The real surprises of the season were redshirt freshman Bryson Washington (1,028 yards and 12 TDs) and receiver Josh Cameron (754 yards and 10 TDs).

Robertson spread the ball around, and the up-tempo approach from former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital turned Baylor into a well-oiled scoring machine.

Though the season ended with a 44-31 loss to LSU in the Texas Bowl, Baylor greatly exceeded expectations.

Baylor Bears Offense Preview With Robertson, Washington, Cameron, and five other offensive starters back, it's hard to envision a world in which Baylor's offense isn't, at the very worst, equal to last year's.

TE Michael Trigg earned All-Big 12 honors last season, and the offensive line returns 73 career FBS starts.

Guard Kurt Danneker brings 13 of those from last season, where he played for Ohio.

That offensive line projects to be one of the two or three best in the Big 12.

Last year, it was Texas State transfer Ashtyn Hawkins that appeared to be the spark to a passing game that was pretty terrible the year prior.

Instead, it was Cameron who caught 10 touchdowns and reeled in a team-high 52 receptions for 754 yards.

Cameron sports No.

34 and was primarily supposed to be a returnman.

In the one game Robertson missed last season, Baylor's offense came to a screeching halt, scoring just 12 points on Utah in Week 2.

So long as Robertson plays, the Bears' offense moves efficiently.

What makes this offense really exciting (or scary for those going against it) is the depth of talent.

Washington's relief, junior Dawson Pendergrass, rushed for 671 yards and six scores himself.

Two receiving transfers bolster this already-talented unit; Kole Wilson (Texas State) reeled in 630 yards and four touchdowns as a 12-game starter, and Louis Brown (San Diego State) earned All-Mountain West honors.

Just for the fun of it, even backup TE Matthew Klopfenstein caught a touchdown on just six receptions last year.

This is an offense with many, many options and plenty of next men up.

Baylor Bears Defense Preview It may be hard to see if you look at box scores and season-long numbers, but Aranda taking over play calling was a net positive for Baylor's defense.

In Year 2 under his rule, the defense should take a big step forward, and that net positive will be more evident.

First team All-Big 12 selection Keaton Thomas stuffed the stat sheet, logging 114 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and an interception.

He's joined by another first-team all-conference selection, Travion Barnes, who racked up 129 tackles and three sacks in just nine starts with Florida International.

Three other starters return, including safety Devyn Bobby (80 tackles, 3 INT).

Aranda turns over nearly the entire defensive line, a necessity after last year's crew didn't generate anything resembling a pass rush.

As a result, Baylor gave up too many explosive passes and essentially anything opponents wanted through the air.

In a six-game stretch from Weeks 4 to 10, Baylor allowed 300+ passing yards four times.

There are unproven names, both in-house (Jackie Marshall) and through the transfer portal (Emar'rion Winston), who look to turn this pass rush into something disruptive.

That phase of the game will determine how this defense performs as a whole.

Best Case Scenario For Baylor I'll cut right to the chase: this is a Big 12 contender in 2025.

The secret's fully out I thought I was picking some under-the-radar dark horse in Baylor this season, but everyone's all over it.

Phil Steele ranks Baylor first in the conference and 13th in the country.

Athlon Sports and Lindy's don't have the Bears falling that far down the standings, either.

But it's hard to zag here.

Baylor's roster is really talented, and it has everything it needs to win the league: a top quarterback, coaching experience (Aranda won the Big 12 in 2021), a rock-solid offensive line, and a good enough defense to get it all done.

Given that each of the last three Big 12 champions scored 30+ in the title game (45+ in each of the last two), you only need so good a defense to get the job done.

My preseason numbers line Baylor for just 7.7 wins, due in large part to a handful of toss-up games like Arizona State, Auburn, Kansas State, Utah, SMU, and TCU.

Go even 4-2 in those games, and that 7.7 turns into 9.7.

This is a team fully capable of going 10-2 or 11-1 and controlling a spot in the Big 12 Championship game.

The ceiling is winning it.

Worst Case Scenario For Baylor Now that said, toss-up games are just those toss-ups.

Should Baylor go 2-4 in those, they're staring down 6-6, not 10-2.

The start to the schedule is downright brutal.

Baylor opens with Auburn at home, SMU on the road, and Arizona State at home in its first four games.

They handle Kansas State (a Big 12 favorite) before heading into the bye.

The rest of the way features TCU and Utah, both top Big 12 contenders.

The other half of the concern here is that Aranda's defense doesn't find the pass rush, and they're forced into winning every game 41-30.

Sustainable? Maybe Baylor won its final six games with an average score of 41.3-26.5.

Something anyone wants to bank on? Certainly not.

The opposing cast of offenses is pretty gnarly.

Auburn upgraded at QB and fields one of the best receiving duos in the country.

SMU, Kansas State, and TCU all forecast top-25 scoring units.

Even UCF and Cincinnati should put out top-40 offenses of their own.

Oklahoma State has the potential to return to lethal scoring status, and Houston and Utah are both taking enormous steps forward there.

The best way to avoid falling face-first in one-score games is to not play in them.

Baylor played in just two all of last year, for good and ill.

Should those sneak up and bounce the wrong way in 2025, the floor is 7-5 or 6-6.

Baylor Bears 2025 Schedule TCU Opponent Previews Week One - North Carolina Week Four - SMU Week Five - Arizona State Week Six - Colorado Week Seven - Kansas State Follow KillerFrogs on X to stay up to date on all the latest TCU football news! Recommended Articles.

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