Twins still waiting for Carlos Correa's 'clutch' reputation to make its way to Minnesota

Carlos Correas reputation as a clutch performer with the Houston Astros was well established by playing a leading role in capturing three American League pennants (2017, 2019, 2021) and winning the World Series in 2017.

Clutch Correa was a recurring October character.

Correa made the playoffs in all but one of seven seasons with the Astros from 2015-21, and batted .272/.344/.505 in 79 postseason games, leading all playoff participants over that time in RBIs (59) and Win Probability Added (+2.7) while ranking second in total bases (152) and third in homers (18).

Clutch Correa.

Back-to-back years with #ALCS walk-off homers.

(MLB x @Gatorade ) pic.twitter.com/CV7TB8WZxN MLB (@MLB) October 16, 2020 Correa was also consistently very good in regular-season clutch spots with the Astros, performing roughly the same overall (.837 OPS) as he did with runners in scoring position (.829 OPS) and in high-leverage situations (.812 OPS) across 752 games.

He was just very good with Houston, period.

Unfortunately for the Twins, its been a different story in Minnesota.

Advertisement Last month, Correa talked openly about his struggles this season, pointing to mechanical problems with his swing and chasing too many iffy pitches out of the strike zone as reasons for a career-worst .689 OPS and replacement-level 0.1 bWAR in 73 games.

But a deeper look reveals deeper issues.

Correas overall .786 OPS in four seasons with the Twins is down 51 points from his Astros days, with a similar decline in OPS+ from 127 to 119, which is disappointing but still within the normal range of expected outcomes for a players age 27-30 seasons.

Within that, however, Correas performance in clutch spots has plummeted, going from a strength in Houston to a weakness in Minnesota, and running counter to the reputation he built with the Astros as the player youd want at the plate in game-deciding moments.

When batting with runners in scoring position, Correa hit .277 with an .829 OPS for the Astros, matching his overall line.

Since joining the Twins, hes hit .258 with a .724 OPS in those same spots, around 10 percent short of his overall line and 105 points of OPS worse than his RISP work in Houston.

Of the 118 hitters to log at least 400 plate appearances with RISP since his first Minnesota season (2022), Correa ranks 101st in OPS and 107th in slugging percentage.

In particular, his power has vanished with RISP, slipping from a homer every 30 plate appearances with the Astros to one every 87 plate appearances with the Twins.

Delving a little bit deeper into the same RISP data set, Correas production with runners in scoring position and two outs a scenario where getting a hit scores runs and making an out ends a rally has gone from very good for the Astros (.810 OPS) to downright bad for the Twins (.543 OPS).

This is taking an already small RISP sample and slicing it up even further, so were talking about only 203 plate appearances spread over four years.

But for Correa to hit .183 with just one homer in any 203-plate appearance sample is shocking, especially factoring in the clutch ramifications.

In plate appearances defined as high leverage close scores, late innings, multiple runners on base and other circumstances where the game hangs in the balance Correa has again declined from very good for the Astros (.812 OPS) to subpar for the Twins (.704 OPS).

Correa has more double plays grounded into (29) than extra-base hits (24) in high-leverage spots with the Twins, including a sub-.700 OPS in three of four seasons and a .568 OPS this year.

Of the 122 hitters to log at least 300 high-leverage plate appearances since 2022, he ranks 96th in OPS and 102nd in slugging.

Advertisement Win Probability Added measures a hitters production based on the context in which it occurred to determine the actual effect on winning and losing.

For example, drawing a leadoff walk in the ninth inning of a tie game makes a far bigger WPA impact than a grand slam in a blowout.

Correa has a minus-0.9 WPA in a Twins uniform, including a team-worst minus-1.6 WPA this season and a team-worst minus-2.7 WPA in 2023, which can be directly linked to his RISP and high-leverage struggles.

That was very much not the case in Houston, where his 8.3 WPA from 2015-21 ranked 15th-best in the AL.

In the midst of a career-worst season in which hes batting .258 with a .689 OPS overall, producing just 0.1 bWAR while being paid $36 million, Correa has a .673 OPS with runners in scoring position, a .406 OPS with runners in scoring position and two outs and a .568 OPS in high-leverage situations.

Correa not being as good for the Twins as he was for the Astros is far from a shock, particularly given his injuries.

His overall production decline is fairly common for an aging star, and within a typical range of outcomes the Twins should have expected when signing him to a six-year mega-deal at age 28.

But theres nothing typical about Correas steep drop-off in clutch situations, which is far more extreme than his overall slide and diametrically opposed to the reputation he brought from Houston to Minnesota.

Being a big clutch performer didnt just help Correa get $200 million, it was also part of his lore.

Clutch Correa has gone missing in Minnesota.

(Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images).

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