What we've learned in the first half of the MLB season: 10 midsummer takeaways

Wait.

The All-Star break is coming up next week? Howd that happen? Didnt Shohei Ohtani make that home run trot in Tokyo like 20 minutes ago? Well, if were halfway through another stupendous baseball season, its again time to let you know exactly What Weve Learned in the First Half, with perspective from four MLB executives, who were granted anonymity so they could speak candidly.

1.

A word for the 2025 trade deadline: Complicated You know this season is roaring right along if the 2025 deadline is now only 24 days away.

But the only thing that seems clear about this deadline is that its not going to be one of those tradefests in which the floodgates open early.

(What about that Rafael Devers blockbuster , you ask? That one was personal, said one exec.

So its in its own separate category, as well get to shortly.) Advertisement Over at Baseball Reference , theyre still listing (gulp) 26 teams as being within striking distance of some kind of playoff spot.

Thats everybody but the Rockies, Nationals, Athletics and White Sox.

Even if the more realistic number is 23 or 24, thats still a seller-buyer ratio thats officially not helpful.

I think its going to be a scramble, said a National League exec, because so many teams are still in it that I dont know if youre going to see a lot of activity until the last couple of days.

So who are the pivotal buy/sell tightrope walkers to watch? There are so many teams in that Maybe Zone, we could name a dozen options.

But our panel pointed toward these four teams: Diamondbacks Theyre built to win and still trying to win.

But if the next three weeks dont go well, they could shake up this deadline by dangling the likes of impending free agents Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly (among others).

Josh Naylor, one American League exec said, could be the best bat traded this month.

Twins The Twins went 9-17 in June.

That doesnt feel real contender-like.

But theyre still only five games out of a wild-card spot.

So who knows? If they sell, or even go into simultaneous buy/sell mode, they could do brisk business.

Minnesota has a glut of corner-outfield players who could, in theory, all be in play: (Trevor) Larnach, (Matt) Wallner, Willi Castro, maybe even Royce Lewis, another AL exec said.

They also have an unbelievably top-heavy, good bullpen (where Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax would be very buzzy commodities who each have two-plus years of team control remaining).

Guardians See previous two paragraphs! The Guardians have gone 9-22 since the start of June yet still havent quite tumbled out of that wild-card race (seven games back).

But even if the next few weeks are just as rough, the league is dubious that a full sell-off is coming from one of the youngest teams in the sport.

Advertisement I think Cleveland always just plays the Tampa Bay-type long game, an NL exec said.

So they could flip some pieces.

Steven Kwan would be a potential piece , even though theres a couple years of control there.

But I dont see a big sell coming.

Red Sox Theyve already unloaded Devers, but theyre one more team still in a race thats seemingly impossible to fall out of.

So theyre going to be fascinating, an NL exec said.

Who could they sell? Aroldis Chapman is the most logical name.

But when other clubs look at the Red Sox, they see a team that just needs to reconfigure the roster more than it needs to dump money or big names.

I think theyre going to continue to do things that solve their long-term issues, an AL exec said.

So I think (Jarren) Duran is probably in play for a lot of teams.

...

I think hes the most likely of those players in their outfield to change teams.

2.

One takeaway from the Devers deal: Buster Posey is fearless Were going to tackle this stunning blockbuster in two parts.

First, lets talk about the Giants.

The Devers press conference might turn out to be their highlight of the year! The weekend before Devers showed up, they were tied with the Dodgers for first place.

In the three weeks since they made arguably their gutsiest trade of the 21st century, theyve lost 11 of 19, skidded to seven games out of first ...

and scored the fewest runs in the National League.

Because ...

baseball! But heres our Giants takeaway, and were sticking to it: Ignore that record (for now) because the most important thing weve learned is that Buster Posey is just as fearless, as a president of baseball operations, as he was when he was winning MVP trophies and World Series rings.

When you make moves like that, you always get lauded for doing them in the moment, an AL exec said.

I know they havent played well since that trade.

But when you make those decisions, it can never be about how its going to make you feel in the moment.

And when its eight and a half years of contract that youre taking on, it cant be about what it does for you in the next two months.

Advertisement They clearly have had trouble attracting marquee, middle-of-the-order, name-brand bats.

And they were able to acquire a 28-year-old guy whose track record is as long and as good as anybodys.

So I hope it works for them.

I didnt have any problem with anything they did.

And I dont think theyll really miss anything they gave up if Rafael Devers is a good player for them.

3.

Devers deal takeaway No.

2: The Red Sox need to figure out what theyre all about Boy, is it hard to find anyone in baseball who likes the Boston side of this trade ...

from any angle.

The first big Red Sox issue: When you trade a star, the conventional wisdom is that you at least have to get somebody back with a chance to be a star ...

and that didnt happen here, just as the Red Sox didnt make it happen in the Mookie Betts deal.

Whos (their) headliner? one AL exec said of this package.

Thats my big thought.

Even if you just accept the decision to trade him in the first place and say were not going to debate that, I still think they could have and should have done better than they did.

But beyond the Who Won the Trade conversation, the Red Sox should know how shocked the industry is by the painful organizational dysfunction that led to this trade.

What stands out the most is just how brutal the communication (with Devers) was on their side, an NL exec said.

Its made me think about how we treat players (in his teams organization) how players are treated and respected, and the value of good communication, and how that affects and creates culture.

You know, its easy to throw stones at other teams.

I get that.

I just know that in our organization, we function on communication and culture and support, on positivity and curiosity.

And these things are just whats built into our organization, from top to bottom.

So I cant even fathom that happening.

Advertisement 4.

The only great team in baseball is ...

I asked that question of all four execs surveyed.

The consensus answer? The healthy Dodgers.

Good answer except for one thing.

In real life, that team doesnt exist.

Did you know that this not-so-healthy version of the Dodgers has already used 34 pitchers, 16 starters and five openers? Or that Kike Hernandez has pitched more times (five) than Blake Snell (two)? Or that they have 13 pitchers on the injured list? Or that theyre spending more payroll dollars on players who arent playing for them ($132 million) than the Brewers or Rays are paying their active players to make up teams that would be in the playoffs if the postseason started today? But thats just another year in the life of the ridiculously deep and deep-pocketed Dodgers.

They barely have enough healthy elbow ligaments to scrape together a pitching staff and theyre still seven games ahead of the rest of their respectable division.

But does that make them great as currently constituted? Nobody I surveyed would go there.

When I look at teams and try to break down a great team in the simplest form, an NL exec said, I say: Who has a great offensive club, with great starting pitching and a great bullpen? I dont think theres any team in baseball that says, right now: Were great at all three of those things or even: Were really good at all three of those things.

I obviously have a lot of respect for the healthy Dodgers.

I just think its probably more irresponsible than responsible to assume that theyre going to be healthy.

Whatever they are, FanGraphs only projects the Dodgers at 23 percent odds to win the World Series but no other team in either league is even above 12 percent.

So is that further proof that this is a season with no great teams unless the Dodgers spring back to health by October? I dont know, another NL exec said.

I just know that when you look at that (Dodgers) roster, the ceiling of those players, I think, is completely unmatched in baseball right now.

Advertisement 5.

The Orioles are the most disappointing team of modern times Im just going to say it: The Orioles are the most disappointing team I can remember since Ive been following baseball.

Im not alone.

When this season began, FanGraphs gave this Orioles team 45 percent odds of making the playoffs.

That was higher than the Rays, Brewers or Padres and basically in the same neighborhood as the Tigers (46 percent), Cubs (48 percent) and Astros (52 percent).

And why not? Were talking about a team that was coming off two straight trips to the postseason.

It seemed to be leading the league in young superstars, future superstars and top-100 prospects.

And even with the loss of Corbin Burnes in free agency, this group had the vibe of a team following the Astros 2015-23 playbook built both to be good and stay good.

Oops.

Instead, injuries, regression and shaky pitching have, shockingly, led the Orioles to nearly a worse run differential (minus-82) than the White Sox (minus-84) and the fifth-worst in the sport, ahead of only the Rockies, Nationals, As and those White Sox.

So the playoff odds in Baltimore are down to just 3.9 percent.

And its hard to say thats a fluke, given this teams bottom-10 offense and bottom-five pitching staff in the first half.

Still, I know what youre thinking: What about the Braves, Rangers and Diamondbacks, three other teams that have played way below expectations this year? Or what about all the other teams from the last 10 ...

20 ...

30 ...

40 years that underperformed, got managers fired and belong in this argument for biggest disappointment? Heres the difference: Those teams werent built like this team was built.

I think the difference with them, an NL exec said of the Orioles, is that most of the teams that we would qualify as disappointing were teams that added big-time free agents and spent a bunch of money and then it just didnt work.

Where this one probably is even more disappointing is, I think we all just felt like its a lot of young positional players that are just going to continue to get better.

Advertisement So talk about teams that could fire up this trade deadline.

Suppose the Orioles were bold enough to dangle a young, centerpiece bat for a young, controllable top-of-the-rotation arm? That doesnt seem likely.

But check those trade rumors this month! 6.

The Tigers are real and theyre spectacular In October 2024, we were asking: Howd this team make the playoffs? But nine months later, in July 2025, were asking a whole different question about the Tigers: How many teams in this sport are better than they are? Did you see this magical Tigers season coming? Not many people did.

Before the season, FanGraphs gave them only a 27 percent shot of winning their division worse than the Twins and Mariners, and barely higher than the Royals.

So the Tigers have been baseballs most pleasant surprise.

But are we over the surprise yet? Their 11 1/2-game lead entering July wasnt just the biggest in MLB.

It was the largest in the 125-season history of their franchise.

Theyre in a tight race with the Yankees for the most runs scored in their league.

Theyre the best base-running team in their league.

Theyre tied for second in the sport in starting pitching ERA.

And theyre a top-10 defensive team in the sport.

So ...

what about this feels like just another midseason illusion? That would be nothing, said a rival AL executive.

Best pitcher in baseball (in Tarik Skubal), the exec said.

Impact manager (in A.J.

Hinch).

Lots of guys exceeding expectations, like Gleyber (Torres) and (Casey) Mize.

So are the Tigers yes, the Tigers good enough to win the World Series? If you are good enough to get to the playoffs and skip the wild-card round, the same exec said, you are good enough to win anything.

7.

The Rays are pulling off their greatest magic trick yet Theyre baseballs pluckiest homeless team booted out of their home sweet dome by a hurricane, spending their summer playing in somebody elses stadium.

So for those always-underestimated Tampa Bay Rays, this looked like a year for survival, not reprisal.

Nope.

Its turning into another year of the Rays doing Rays things, just when (and where) you least expected it.

Advertisement Halfway through this amazing season, theyve won the same number of games as the Yankees.

They could wind up hosting all three games of the wild-card round ( just dont ask where ).

And they have the second-best record in baseball (24-17) against teams that are .500 or better.

I dont know if Id call this a magic trick, said a rival AL exec.

They have a really good team.

Their pitching is really good.

I just think that the unique part of this one is that they have all these (typical) Rays things happening, and theyre doing it while playing in somebody elses spring training park.

And they seemingly dont miss a beat.

Based on Retrosheet data, no team has ever made the postseason while playing more than three home games someplace other than its normal home ballpark.

Now the Rays could demolish that record if they can just weather playing 47 of their last 75 games on the road.

8.

Which free agents have helped themselves? Bregman, Gleyber and Ranger That walk-year slog toward the free-agent auction stand can be an adventure.

But that sound you hear, off in the distance, is the cash register ringing for three guys who are definitely going to be able to afford that new coffee table after they sign their next free-agent deals this winter.

Alex Bregman Hes already making $40 million a year in the first year of his free-agent deal with the Red Sox ...

so nobody has to worry about Bregmans earning power.

But he can (and almost certainly will) opt out.

And when you combine his 158 OPS+, his in-it-to-win-it intensity and the ripple effects of the Devers trade, hes in prime position to cash in.

Ive been laughing about this for two weeks, one AL exec said, just thinking about (his agent) Scott Boras reaction to the Devers trade with Bregman, because you know hes sitting there thinking: Just give me a blank check, because whatever I want, you guys are going to have to pay me.

Gleyber Torres Sometimes, the smartest thing a player can do is market himself outside of the New York glare.

For living proof, check out Torres.

Advertisement Took a one-year, $15-million deal with Detroit after his trip through free agency last winter failed to lead him to Ca-Ching Land.

Now hes starting in the All-Star Game for baseballs most pleasant surprise, the Tigers.

Hes rocking a 130 OPS+.

And free agency 2.0 looks like it might be his kind of place.

Gleyber has made himself the most money, right? said another AL exec.

Gleyber bet on himself with the one-year deal.

And if he does this again in the second half, hes going to get paid.

Ranger Suarez There were obviously other names I could have dropped into the third spot in this lineup: Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, Framber Valdez.

But the seasons theyre having are in line with their track records.

With Suarez, the often-brilliant but often-injured 29-year-old left-hander for the Phillies, the rest of the sport looked at his incredible first half in 2024 and said: Lets see him do that again.

OK then.

Hes sitting on a 1.99 ERA with one start left before the All-Star break.

So theyve seen it! The question is how attractive is a 30-year-old left-hander with a history of streaks of brilliance but iffy volume.

Its perfect, said one rival exec, with a laugh.

Hell sign with the Dodgers.

9.

Get ready for the most shutouts in baseball history Im a big fan of bagels.

Just not when were hanging nine of them on the scoreboard every night.

Well, its the Year of the Shutout.

So wed better get used to it.

As recently as 2019, there were 268 team (not individual) shutouts thrown across baseball over a full season.

And it wasnt just some random season, either.

It was a season that featured the highest strikeout total in history.

But this year, this sport is on pace for about 100 more shutouts than we saw in that season.

At this pace, well see 366 of those shutouts, the most in a full season in the history of baseball.

Advertisement The current record of 359 was set in the dead-ball era, in 1915, when there were only 16 teams.

But in the live-ball era (1920-present), the full-season record is 357, in 1972.

And even if we adjust for expansion by looking at the rate of shutouts per game, the only two seasons in the live-ball era with a higher shutout percentage were 1972 and 1968, two of the most famous Year of the Pitcher seasons in modern history.

The question is why zero is turning into baseballs magic number.

The strikeout rate has actually declined two seasons in a row.

And the league-wide batting average, walk rate and OPS are all up compared to last year.

But shutouts are still heading for historic territory.

And theyve actually become a daily staple, with at least one shutout on each of the last 14 days in a row, 24 of the last 26, 32 of the last 35, 44 of the last 48 and 56 of the last 61.

What a fascinating trend.

I know we talk about this all the time, but I cant say this enough: Its just really hard to hit now, said one of our AL execs.

Pitchers can just do things now with a baseball that people couldnt do 20 years ago.

So while were not missing as many bats, the stuff coming out of peoples hands is better than its ever been.

Its not like the stuff got worse, and thats why strikeouts are going down.

The stuff is outrageous right now across the board, and its harder to be on the barrel than its ever been.

10.

If the NL Cy Young wins eight games, is that ok? Its never safe to ask, Whos going to win the Cy Young Award? in July.

But when has that ever stopped anyone? So whos going to win the National League Cy Young? Its possible the correct answer is Zack Wheeler or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Logan Webb or ( fill in the name of your favorite ace here ).

But its also extremely possible the answer is ...

Paul Skenes.

Advertisement Not that theres anything shocking about that except that, thanks to the Pirates dead-ball offense, hes rolling into mid-July with a won-lost record of ...

4-7.

OK, think about that.

Should we care that its possible were about to live in a world where a starting pitcher could win a Cy Young with a record in the neighborhood of 8-13? Before you answer, you should know that even in these newfangled times, weve never lived in that world.

For the first 40 full seasons that the Cy Young existed, the starting pitchers who collected that trophy had an average won-lost record of 21-8.

And no starter won the award, in a full season, without winning at least 18 games until 1997, when Pedro Martinez took home his first Cy Young by going 17-8 with the Expos.

But we didnt really know that the universe had changed until 2010, when Felix Hernandez (deservedly) won the AL award in a season in which he went 13-12.

Still, imagine a Cy Young with a losing record and fewer than 10 wins in a full season.

Weve never seen that, until ...

well, it might not be long.

So lets ask again: Should anyone still care if Skenes hangs onto his lead in more relevant 2025-ish metrics such as WAR, ERA+ and opponent OPS? You should know I got some measured, deep-thought responses to that question from our panel.

But I also got this one from a longtime Kill The Win exec: Come on, its such a dumb, antiquated statistic, he said of The Win.

Look, I think Paul Skenes cares immensely about wins, and Im glad he does.

He should.

But hes not voting for the Cy Young.

...

I want Paul Skenes to care because it makes him a better pitcher.

But if youre filling out a ballot and you care, you are an idiot.

So what have we learned about baseball in 2025? The deadline might be a bust.

The Tigers are for real.

The cash register is ringing for Alex Bregman.

And us lowly sportswriters? We still have to prove were not idiots.

(Top photo of Tarik Skubal: Grace Hoppel / MLB Photos via Getty Images).

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