Five thoughts after an underwhelming start to the Blue Jackets' offseason

COLUMBUS, Ohio By now, the relative quiet of the Columbus Blue Jackets offseason is likely sinking in with most of the fan base.

Theres still a lot of summer to go, but it looks as if the Jackets changes will be more subtle than sweeping.

Weve had some time to think about the moves that GM Don Waddell was able to swing, along with the ones he didnt pull off and the ramifications of those moves/non-moves that followed.

Theres always more than meets the eye, and thats what were trying to scratch at here.

Advertisement Heres a closer look at five topics weve been thinking about over the last week: What the Noah Dobson talks revealed We couldnt have known it at the time, but the way the trade of defenseman Noah Dobson played out last Friday he was sent from the New York Islanders to the Montreal Canadiens revealed the answers to two questions that lingered before the offseason carnival started.

First, that the Blue Jackets two first-round draft picks were not enough, either alone or together, to swing a trade for an impact player.

Both the Blue Jackets and Canadiens were required to throw in a roster player.

For Montreal, that ended up being forward Emil Heineman.

For the Blue Jackets, that, reportedly, would have been Dmitri Voronkov.

The second part of this requires a delicate touch.

Dobson, who is from Prince Edward Island, Canada, wanted to play for the Montreal Canadiens.

Its likely not that he didnt want to play in Columbus, just that he preferred Montreal, one of the marquee cities in the country of his birth.

That scenario played out in a couple of other instances, too.

The Blue Jackets would have put a massive contract offer on the table for 100-point winger Mitch Marner, but Marner made it clear that he wanted to sign with the Vegas Golden Knights.

His former club, the Toronto Maple Leafs, agreed to a sign-and-trade with the Golden Knights.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets were involved in trade talks for defenseman Rasmus Anderson, who would have been a perfect fit on the second pair opposite young Denton Mateychuk.

Anderson, who has one year remaining on his contract with the Calgary Flames, apparently has made it clear that hed only entertain a contract extension with ...

you guessed it, Vegas .

(He remains with the Flames.) Columbus and the Blue Jackets are not seen by most NHL players as a city or franchise to be avoided.

For proof, look at the two players acquired from the Colorado Avalanche, late last week.

Both Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood had modified no-trade clauses in their contract, meaning they could list a number of clubs to which they couldnt be traded.

Advertisement Neither Coyle (10 teams) nor Wood (eight) had Columbus on their no-trade lists.

In summary, the Blue Jackets are not being avoided like the plague.

But, they are not a marquee franchise yet, either.

Provorovs signing became imperative Its clear that Waddells honeymoon, for many Blue Jackets fans, has ended.

He, along with other GMs, clearly misread what this years market was going to be, how few players would change teams, and how the NHLs rising salary cap would flatten the market by allowing teams to keep more of their players.

But once it became clear that Waddell wasnt going to land a right-shot defenseman for his top four Dobson being traded elsewhere, Andersson limiting the Flames trade partners, and perhaps others he circled back to get serious about negotiations with defenseman Ivan Provorov.

When talks resumed on the other side of the draft, with Provorov only hours away from hitting the open market, the player had all of the leverage.

The ticket: seven years, $59.5 million At that point, the Blue Jackets had no choice but to sign him to a contract, because the worst possible scenario is not what happened with the free-agent and trade markets.

No, the worst scenario Waddell faced on his blue line was failing to land any of those targets and allowing Provorov to leave via free agency.

Heres another perspective on Provorovs contract.

When Provorov signed a six-year, $40.5 million contract with the Philadelphia Flyers in 2019, the salary cap for the upcoming season was $81.5 million.

That means Provorovs salary cap hit, $6.75 million, occupied 8.2 percent of the salary cap.

The deal he signed on Tuesday, which carries an $8.5 million cap hit, occupies 8.9 percent of the salary cap ($95.5 million) this coming season.

The NHL has already set the salary cap for the two seasons following the upcoming campaign.

Itll be $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million in 2027-28, which means Provorov will eat 8.2 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively.

Advertisement The lesson: we should be prepared for skyrocketing NHL salaries.

Oversell, underdeliver Blue Jackets fans came into this summer on a high note, not just because the Blue Jackets finished last season on a burner and nearly made the playoffs, but because Waddell was making clear his plans to add significant pieces to the roster with an aggressive approach.

Dreams of top-six wingers, a top-four defenseman and a new starting goaltender swirled through their daydreams.

Instead, they got three bottom-six forwards: Coyle, Wood and Isac Lundestrom, to replace the outgoing Justin Danforth, Sean Kuraly and James van Riemsdyk.

Its an agitated fan base right now.

But once the disappointment fades in the searing heat of late July and August, most Blue Jackets fans will come back to the realization that this roster is still full of talent, and the reasons Waddell cited to believe that they can still be better next season are actually legitimate.

Young players Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, Dmitri Voronkov, Denton Mateychuk already look like bona fide NHL players, and their profiles will continue to rise.

Not every one of them in a perfectly straight, climbing trajectory, but logic dictates theyre still learning and growing.

This might be the biggest everything is going to be OK argument, and its something Waddell hinted at on the day free agency opened, when the Jackets re-signed Provorov: The Jackets top four Zach Werenski with Dante Fabbro, Mateychuk with Provorov wasnt together all season.

Fabbro was claimed on waivers in mid-November.

Mateychuk didnt come up until just before Christmas.

We went digging into this, and the numbers are dramatic In the 41 games in which Werenski, Fabbro, Mateychuk and Provorov all dressed, the Blue Jackets went 26-13-2 (.658 points percentage) and allowed 2.95 goals per game.

In the 41 games in which one or more were missing from the lineup, the Jackets went 14-20-7 (.427 points percentage) and allowed 3.56 goals per game.

Advertisement The Damon Severson problem One can imagine that nobody was more relieved by Provorovs new contract than Damon Severson, who has not been able to find his groove in Columbus since he was traded to the Blue Jackets by New Jersey two seasons ago.

Severson, youll recall, was a healthy scratch 10 times last season, including the final eight games.

Thats a hard pill to swallow for an organization that is paying Severson $6.75 million per season through 2030-31.

But after Provorovs signing, Severson is now the third-highest-paid Blue Jackets defenseman, slotting behind Werenski and Provorov.

That might sound like a minor issue, but Severson has been honest especially in his first season in Columbus about trying to live up to the contract Columbus bestowed upon him.

You can look at Severson from two different perspectives right now.

If he had played better his first two seasons in Columbus, they wouldnt have been so driven to find a right-shot defenseman for their second pair.

Severson, after all, is a right shot, and he was pursued by the Blue Jackets because then-GM Jarmo Kekalainen saw him as a top-four defender.

Now, though, the Blue Jackets are looking to shelter the player and put him in a lineup spot where he can succeed.

They cant trade his contract without eating a portion of the money hes due or sweetening the offer with a draft pick or a prospect.

They have to find a way to make this work.

As of now, you would expect him to start the season on the third pair with veteran Erik Gudbranson.

Goaltending remains biggest issue Coyle and Wood are going to give the Blue Jackets a different look on their bottom two lines.

As noted above, you could make a statistical argument that the Jackets top four is plenty good enough.

The biggest concern, if the Blue Jackets start the season as presently constructed, will be their goaltending, where Elvis Merzlikins appears poised to start his seventh season in Columbus.

Jet Greaves, who jumped Daniil Tarasov on the depth chart and then supplanted Merzlikins as the starter late last season, will compete for the job.

Advertisement Merzlikins, 31, has had a sub-.900 save percentage for three seasons now.

In that span from the start of 2022-23 there are 66 goaltenders who have played 50 or more games, and only two have a lower save percentage than Merzlikins .890: Philadelphias Samuel Ersson (.888) and journeyman Spencer Martin (.875).

Theres no question that Merzlikins is a sympathetic figure, having lost one of his best friends, Matiss Kivlenieks, to a tragedy four years ago.

He also has a wildly engaging personality, which isnt always the case among NHL players.

Theres a heck of a goaltender in there, too, but it hasnt been seen consistently since his first couple of seasons in the NHL.

That seems like a long time ago.

Its possible that Greaves plays well enough to wrest the No.

1 job away from Merzlikins.

But you have to wonder how Merzlikins would handle being a backup.

Of all that could have been upgraded this summer, it feels like this should have been the priority.

(Photo of Ivan Provorov: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images).

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