Someone dropped a $115K bet on Clemson to win the national title. Do experts think it's a good play?

CLEMSON A trio of six-figure wagers on the 2025 College Football Playoff went public this week, which drew varying levels of astonishment from Odds Shark analyst Josie Costigan.

Yes, she was awed that someone put $300,000 on Texas to win a national championship, but it's a 5/1 gamble on a rising program led by an exceptionally hyped quarterback in Arch Manning .

For sure, Costigan agrees $200,000 on Penn State at 7.5/1 odds is a risk, because she's not a believer in Drew Allar .

But the Nittany Lions just made a run to the CFP semifinals and they have a premier rusher in Nick Singleton .

But Clemson? For $115,000 at 13/1? "It's like, um, OK," Costigan added with a laugh, "I don't know about the thought process on that one." There has been some surprise among betting experts that Clemson, which snuck its way into the CFP last season, has seen its national title odds improve from 20/1 when lines opened on Jan.

21 to just 9/1 odds as of this week.

Not much has happened to boost the Tigers' stock this offseason other than a couple of transfer portal adds and a new defensive coordinator .

But if Costigan digs a bit deeper, she can reason why Clemson has become trendy in the betting community.

Clemson, a model of consistency in the ACC, is a favorite of gameday bettors because the Tigers usually beat the spread.

It's a program led by a coach, Dabo Swinney, whose unconventional approach to roster building in the name, image, and likeness (NIL) and transfer portal era has garnered a lot of attention.

This year, Swinney's "crockpot" serves up a senior quarterback in Cade Klubnik , a talented receiving corps, a deep offensive line, and a defense laden with blue-chippers like Peter Woods , T.J.

Parker, and Avieon Terrell.

If people are looking for opportunities to bet Clemson, a national champion of recent memory, then there's just one question they have to ask themselves.

"If it's not this year," Costigan said, "when is it going to be?" If someone wants to bet the Tigers, they have to do it before Klubnik and Co.

are out the door.

The next question is just when, exactly, to put in a play.

Gambling is very much a stock market, with bettors trying to buy into a position at the best price possible.

A fair number of bettors determined there was just too much value in Clemson at 20/1.

This was coming off of Klubnik's aerial assault on a vaunted Texas defense, which served as a foundation for Heisman hype.

Way-too-early mock drafts started listing Klubnik, Parker, Woods, and Terrell as potential first-round picks.

Clemson trailed well behind defending national champ Ohio State (4.5/1), Texas (5.5/1), Georgia (6-1), Oregon (7/1), and PSU (8.5/1) when lines were first set in January.

But the Tigers' odds cut in half as narratives took hold.

"It seems like Clemson and Penn State are two of the teams this offseason that have garnered a lot of attention," Fox Sports betting analyst Chris Fallica said.

"It's all about timing with some of these bets.

You're trying to find the best number.

And finding a number on Clemson is an interesting thing." It's interesting, because it's been shrinking fast.

By May 29, Clemson sat a 16/1, according to BetMGM.

That $115,000 bet came a month later, with the Tigers' odds at 13/1, meaning the winner or winners, if it's a group of bettors pooling their money would earn nearly $1.5 million if Clemson takes the CFP crown.

Fallica admires anyone willing to put their money behind a belief, but he's not the type to put in a bet on a national champ in June.

He's a "contrarian" who tends to identify negatives more readily than most.

He hasn't lost sight of the fact that the Tigers barely made the CFP in 2024, getting romped by Georgia in Atlanta, stomped by Louisville in Death Valley, and barely beating Pittsburgh on the road.

If Clemson isn't the fourth-ranked team in the country in turnover margin last season, it's likely the CFP would have been out of reach.

"That's one of the things a lot of betters and handicappers look towards, is teams that are maybe good in one-score games, create a lot of turnovers, are very fortunate in that metric," Fallica said.

"They expect them to maybe regress the following year." Fallica would also dispute narratives about the Tigers' "easy" ACC schedule.

It's not easy to beat Georgia Tech on the road, and the Tigers have to travel to Louisville this year.

Even Boston College could be stumbling block in former Texans coach Bill O'Brien's second season.

Anyone betting in July on Swinney's crew to win the title, in Fallica's view, is essentially predicting a win over LSU in the opener because Clemson's stock could take a dip a good thing for a better after a Week 1 loss.

"A lot of times waiting, and having an understanding that these teams have plenty of runway to work their way back into the playoff, is the way to go," Fallica said.

It's probably best to see a game or two before placing a big-money bet on a national champion.

Or monitor fall camp, at least, just to have a better handle on preseason injuries.

"I would just say be cautious with where you're putting your money," Costigan said.

"I expect a decent year from Clemson, just given that I do think they have a lot working in their favor.

But I wouldn't just throw money on things because you see some headlines that are telling you they're gonna look good." And betting $115,000? "That's out of my salary grade, for sure," Fallica said.

"But you know what? That's fine.

That's taking a stab and that's backing your opinion up with cold, hard cash.

"In the gambling community, if you're loud and you have the ability to kind of back your opinion up with something, doing it goes a long way in showing that you're serious.".

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