NHL free agency deep dive: Analyzing the top centers available

With free-agency season approaching, the big question on everyones mind comes down to cost: How much is each player worth? Pricing players can be an inexact science, but it is an extremely worthy exercise that can save future headaches.

Last year , it couldve saved a team from drastically overpaying each of the top centers available Steven Stamkos, Elias Lindholm and Chandler Stephenson.

Advertisement The same will likely be true this year with the salary cap rising quickly and teams trying to figure out the markets new normal.

Sometimes teams have to take risks in the market to acquire players, even at uncomfortable prices, but its still better to understand where that bar should be set.

Our Chris Johnston has already delivered the top 50 players available .

Now were going to estimate how good they are and, perhaps more importantly, will be.

Thats based on each players projected Net Rating over the duration of an expected contract that takes into account how the player likely ages and future cap growth.

Net Rating isnt infallible, but it serves as a strong starting point for discussion.

Here are the top centers available this summer.

John Tavares We already went over Tavares next deal in depth below, so we wont go long here.

The basic premise is that a contract close to Joe Pavelskis (2025 equivalent of $8.2 million per over three years) is similarly fair for Tavares: A still productive center whose high hockey IQ could mean he ages gracefully.

Assuming Tavares sticks with the Leafs, it feels likely that Toronto will get a very nice hometown discount here.

If the rumors of a cap hit starting with a four are true, itll be impossible to find better value this summer.

Sam Bennett Sam Bennett-mania is in hyperdrive now and its hard to blame anyone considering he had 14 goals through 21 playoff games this spring.

Bennett is a consistent big-game player and hes timed his postseason magnum opus perfectly, just in time for a hefty raise.

What that raise should be is tricky (an in-depth breakdown is below), given hes only a 50-point center during the regular season and he doesnt have the profile of a player who ages well.

Still, Bennett is a player worth overpaying for, given his playoff pedigree and the potential that he can offer more value in a bigger role.

But the ceiling for that should probably be $8 million, with a contract that starts with a seven being more acceptable.

Anything more would probably be reckless.

Matt Duchene After a somewhat surprising buyout in 2023, Matt Duchene proved he still had a lot of offensive game left for the Dallas Stars.

In 2023-24, he scored 25 goals and 65 points and in 2024-25, he upped the ante further with a 30-goal, point-per-game season.

His work with the puck in all three zones was tremendous, where he looked like a legitimate offensive driver, powering the teams second line to incredible heights.

According to data tracked by Corey Sznajder , Duchene was one of the leagues top forwards in creating chances and entering the zone with control.

Advertisement Duchenes resurgence was a big reason why the Stars were lauded as one of the leagues deepest teams the last two seasons.

Duchene is also a big reason why Dallas vaunted offensive depth has completely fizzled out when it matters.

In 2023-24, Duchene had six points in 19 playoff games.

He followed it up with six points in 18 playoff games in 2024-25.

Duchene appears to be the anti-Bennett: a fierce regular-season player who just hasnt shown much of any dawg in him.

Perhaps thats just variance.

Perhaps its a Dallas-specific problem, given Duchene isnt the only one afflicted by decreased scoring.

Still, its worth noting as a potential risk factor for signing Duchene.

Even if its not to the degree observed over the last two seasons, theres probably something to Duchenes game a rush-oriented one not translating well to the playoffs.

For teams not scared off by that, a three-year deal at $6.5 million per season is probably the fair price for Duchene.

Even at 35, Duchene is still a 70-point threat for next season and could remain 2C-caliber for the entirety of a three-year deal.

Anything more than that is probably pushing it given Duchenes lack of playoff pedigree, but in a thin center market, he may be the only top-six option even available (if Tavares and Bennett both re-sign as expected).

That could push Duchenes price up to some uncomfortable places, with AFP Analytics forecasting an AAV north of $7 million.

Pius Suter Two summers ago the Canucks struck gold at the bargain bin with Pius Suter (the current version of the model priced him at $2.3 million for what its worth, a touch higher than his $1.6 million AAV).

Hes going to be a lot more expensive this time around.

Over the last two seasons, Suter has established himself as a dependable middle-six center option for Vancouver.

Hes defensively responsible, kills penalties exceptionally well and is malleable to any role with serviceable scoring.

Suters ideal role in a contending lineup is as a shutdown 3C, but he can move up into the top six in a pinch when needed.

He showed that for the Canucks last season and saw a jump in his production as a result.

The Swiss center was a Swiss Army Knife for the Canucks, fitting well wherever needed.

Suters plus-1.7 Defensive Rating is the main draw here and is what teams will be paying for.

But the price tag for his services does make Suter feel like a luxury, considering his ideal place in the lineup.

While its possible Suter can continue growing into a top-six role, Im skeptical of whether or not he has the offensive chops for it.

Advertisement Finding the right team fit is important here, one where Suter isnt tasked to do too much and can slot into the lineup appropriately.

There may be some sticker shock with a potential $5 million price tag, but thats going to start being the new normal for players hovering around average value.

As is the case with the best luxury goods, youre paying for quality and down the middle is generally the right place to invest.

The Panthers are a strong example of that, paying Anton Lundell $5 million to be their 3C.

While its not an apples-to-apples comparison due to age, the two do have a similar profile as 40-point forwards with a Defensive Rating of around plus-2.0.

If thats the blueprint, Suter checks a lot of the same boxes for his next club (Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart and Bennett sold separately).

Trent Frederic There was a time when Trent Frederic carried some solid potential for the Bruins.

In 2022-23, he drove play fairly well in a depth role, while in the following year, he flashed some offense with a 40-point season.

Frederic looked like a dependable middle-six forward.

If that version of Frederic can be summoned, he has the potential to be a solid bet for a club at the $3.4 million price that AFP Analytics projects for him on a two-year deal.

Thats roughly where I wouldve priced Frederic at the end of last season.

The current version, though, doesnt look quite as enticing at that cost.

Frederic took a sizeable step back in 2024-25, namely on offense, scoring just 1.02 points-per-60 at five-on-five.

Thats down from 2.1 and 1.97 in the two years prior and ranked 344 out of 378 forwards to play 500 minutes.

Theres some bad luck there, sure, but thats a steep drop that cant be completely ignored.

Its worth mentioning that his projected Defensive Rating also dropped by a goal.

Frederic should bounce back from a trying year, and $3 million is probably fine in the grand scheme of things if he can be a dependable third-line player.

He has the size that makes him useful in a playoff setting, too.

But after a down season, I dont think there should be a rush to overpay him for his services.

Right now, Frederic sits on the cusp of third-line caliber, and any further drop could make him a far too expensive fourth liner.

Adam Gaudette Theres one comp thats really intriguing and it happens to be Adam Gaudettes top one: Patrick Eaves.

In 2012-13, Eaves showed flashes of goal-scoring upside, but rarely enough to make up for other deficiencies in his game.

Two years later, Eaves finally made due on his potential and looked like a decent middle-six scorer for a few seasons, peaking with a 32-goal and 51-point season in 2016-17 at the age of 32.

Better late than never.

Advertisement Im not saying Gaudette will follow that exact path; he very probably wont.

For every Eaves (or even Tomas Kopecky, who also shows up as a great match), there are 25 other guys who didnt amount to much.

But scoring 19 goals in a depth role last year is not nothing.

Gaudette currently cant be trusted defensively, doesnt do much with the puck himself and probably wont shoot 21 percent again.

But if it only costs $1 million, he seems like a worthwhile gamble.

Jonathan Toews No one knows how good Jonathan Toews currently is.

The 37-year-old hasnt played since 2022-23, and even then, things looked fairly grim.

Toews was coming off two straight seasons under a 50-point pace and had just a 38 percent xG rate in his final season.

Defensively, the Blackhawks allowed 3.44 xGA/60 with Toews on the ice, one of the absolute worst marks on the team.

In Toews defense, that team was an utter disaster, and he played fairly tough minutes.

Still, any hope that Toews can be an above-average contributor two years removed from that is probably misguided.

Its possible that two years away from hockey reignites Toews back to a high level, but the chances of that feel seriously slim.

As a veteran presence in the bottom six, though? It might be worth a shot.

While we have no Toews data to work with over the last two seasons, we can extrapolate an age curve from what he wouldve looked like going into the 2023-24 season.

The end result: a minus-6.2 Net Rating and a market value of $1.4 million.

Thats 4C territory.

For a team desperate for championship pedigree, Toews is probably worth trying in a depth role.

Christian Dvorak Teams looking for a depth center could do worse than Christian Dvorak, who had a nice return to form last season playing on a line with Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson.

Dvorak took a big defensive leap in a lesser role with the Canadiens, allowing 0.2 fewer xGA/60 with him on the ice.

If Dvorak can repeat last years efforts (where he had a plus-1.0 Defensive Rating), he could be an intriguing budget add as a poor mans Suter.

Anything under $2 million is solid.

Nick Bjugstad In a similar vein, Nick Bjugstad checks a lot of boxes as a high-end 4C.

The mammoth Mammoth center wasnt quite as effective as he was the year prior, but he can still provide decent value over an average 4C.

Theres not much separating Bjugstad and Dvorak on the ice, but the former is probably a safer bet given his recent track record.

Whether thats worth the extra $500,000 that AFP Analytics is projecting is up for debate, though being 6-foot-6 every time he steps on the ice does help.

Advertisement Radek Faksa Rounding out the list is Radek Faksa, the purest defensive 4C in the league.

Can he provide any semblance of offense? No, not really.

But his ability to defend has been consistently strong even after adjusting for role and pace (which does eliminate the defensive bias that skews toward depth forwards).

Faksas projected Defensive Rating has been above average in every year of his career and that looks unlikely to change next season.

Im not sure how many years Faksa has left, but if his projected cap hit is $1.3 million, thats a fine price to pay for what he offers.

Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards, AFP Analytics and All Three Zones (Top photo of Sam Bennett and John Tavares: Dan Hamilton / USA Today).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.