NHL vibe check: Oilers' two-way support, the taxes debate and trading top-5 draft picks

As much as the NHL has evolved into a two-goalie league in the regular season, that trend hasnt carried into the playoffs.

Most teams, no matter how even the regular season split may be, primarily lean on one guy in the playoffs, especially those that go on deep runs.

So, Stuart Skinner starting 67 percent of the Edmonton Oilers playoff games isnt exactly traditional.

Advertisement Its out of necessity.

As much as Skinner rebounded against the Stars, with 6.38 goals saved above expected in five games, the Florida Panthers are exposing his weaknesses.

After giving his team a chance to win with a quality start in Game 1, he fell below expectations in his next three outings, which pulled Calvin Pickard back into action.

The change from Skinner to Pickard helped stabilize the Oilers in Game 4, enough to spark a dramatic overtime comeback.

But Pickard didnt instill much confidence in a Game 5 loss that pushed the team to the brink of elimination.

And that makes the decision for Game 6 a lot more difficult.

The Skinner-Pickard conundrum When Connor Hellebuyck allowed two early goals in Game 7 against the St.

Louis Blues back in Round 1, it made sense why the coaches kept him in net.

Despite all of his playoff demons, hes the Winnipeg Jets ride-or-die goalie, and that was his game to lose.

Its why many disagreed with Peter DeBoers decision to pull Jake Oettinger in a Game 5 elimination in the Western Conference final, too.

But the Oilers dont have a ride-or-die goalie.

If anything, its Skinner who has a bit more history with the team; his play is just too volatile to earn that title fully, and this postseason reflects that.

Pickard isnt that, either as much as he has helped Edmonton get back on the rails at times this postseason, he adds an element of chaos and volatility, considering how aggressively he plays.

Just take this Game 4 sequence, when he overcommits at the top of the blue paint to Carter Verhaeghe, who moves the puck laterally to Matthew Tkachuk.

EKHOLM AND RNH DENY TKACHUK pic.twitter.com/drv8vhRVKi Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 13, 2025 That would be a tough save for even the best goaltenders, especially if Tkachuk doesnt take a second to accept the pass, then shoot it.

Instead, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scrambled for a block to keep the score tied.

As series go deeper, teams can gather more intel on their opponents.

And players can learn goalie tendencies to pinpoint their weaknesses better, too.

Thats true on both sides of this matchup, with the Oilers trying to target Sergei Bobrovsky up high more.

So that makes the Oilers decision even more daunting, since the Panthers seem to have Skinner and Pickard figured out.

Advertisement But its not the only problem for Edmonton heading into Game 6.

Problems up the middle The Panthers have three things working for them: an elite offense, an elite defense and a goaltender who can be an elite difference-maker.

Its a key reason Florida is in the Stanley Cup Final for the third straight year.

The Oilers ...

dont have those three elements consistently enough.

The offense is elite, especially when the supporting depth steps up around Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard.

The team defense can be great, as it was against the Golden Knights and Stars earlier this postseason.

And that two-way support can put a shaky goaltending tandem in a position to succeed.

Without that two-way support, the Oilers are left with lopsided results like Game 5.

The Panthers become an even more dangerous team later in a series because they wear down opponents with their forecheck and grinding style.

That showed in Game 5, with 15 shot attempts (and four goals) from the home plate area at five-on-five.

The Oilers, on the other hand, only mustered five shot attempts two in the first period (from McDavid and Connor Brown), McDavids third-period goal and two other low-percentage shots.

Florida feasted on the Oilers third line of Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique and Trent Frederic.

Darnell Nurse, Jake Walman, and Troy Stetcher were all crushed in their minutes, too.

Not only did the Panthers challenge them offensively, but also they made key defensive plays to limit Edmontons best in the slot.

So, first and foremost, if the Oilers are going to fight off elimination on Tuesday, the team has to drive to the middle of the ice and keep the Panthers out of it.

All rise for the Rat King Speaking of driving to the middle of the ice, thats exactly what Marchand did in Game 5 with two highlight-reel goals.

OH MY BRAD MARCHAND pic.twitter.com/YobdgBEsX8 Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 15, 2025 Marchand was a force in Game 5.

Along with two goals, Florida had a 15-5 edge in shot attempts in Marchands five-on-five minutes and an 89 percent expected goal rate.

That added up to a game-high 4.59 Game Score, which ties his high this postseason (Game 7 against the Maple Leafs).

It was another sparkling game in what has been an outstanding postseason.

Along with 20 points in 22 games, he is rocking a 62 percent expected goal rate in the playoffs, and a 21-6 goal differential in his five-on-five minutes.

And in the Final, hes been an absolute menace against the Oilers.

Advertisement Marchand is showing exactly what he still has left in the tank.

There were signs in Boston, even this year.

While his scoring has declined in recent years, the Bruins were still a better team in his minutes, no matter his usage.

Even with all those signs, acquiring players is always a gamble.

As much as teams can estimate fits, the reality is no one knows how a player will mesh with another club until it happens.

His skills and characteristics fit perfectly in Florida, and his role on the third line puts him in a beneficial position.

Most teams will struggle to contain Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett in the top six.

Few have the chops to also play the matchup game against a third line of the Panthers caliber.

Still thinking about this goal from Brad Marchand What a #StanleyCup Final he's having pic.twitter.com/aIRA2MERmp Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 15, 2025 And as theyve shown earlier this postseason, that third line can shift capacities into a matchup role when needed to take some of the burden off the Panthers top scorers.

Marchand is showing, on the NHLs biggest stage, that his versatility is still a strength.

And thats going to get him paid this summer, even at 37.

Evolving-Hockey projects a three-year deal worth $7.19 million if he signs outside of Florida, and the recency bias of his Conn Smythe-caliber play could juice that number even more.

Quinn returns to New York While the Panthers and Oilers fight for the Stanley Cup, 30 other teams are already in offseason mode.

The Rangers have already made some changes over the last two months, from firing Peter Laviolette and hiring Mike Sullivan to trading Chris Kreider .

But theres one other intriguing storyline: the return of their former head coach to the bench as an assistant.

Advertisement Unlike other instances where coaches return to their former clubs, there hasnt been a ton of distance between David Quinns firing (May 2021) and his hiring.

There hasnt been a major front-office reshuffle, either.

Quinn had his shortcomings in New York four years ago.

Up-and-coming talent didnt develop well enough, the even-strength offense lacked and he and his staff didnt make enough adjustments over the years to change that.

The question now is how much he has learned in San Jose and Pittsburgh, and whether it will translate to a different capacity.

Quinn helped build the foundation of the Rangers power play, which helped carry the team over the years (until this past season).

And he helped turn around the Penguins power play last year after a disastrous 2023-24.

Maybe he can help get Mika Zibanejads scoring back on track if the Rangers veteran isnt moved this summer, too.

As promising as that seems, defensive help is even more pressing and the Penguins deployment was suspect, at best, last year.

Thats where the Rangers need the most help, and the pressure is on Quinn to deliver this time around.

DeBoer gets the coaching carousel spinning again Just when it seemed like the coaching carousel was done spinning for the offseason with all eight vacancies filled, one more opened up.

The Stars dismissed Peter DeBoer after a third straight elimination in the Western Conference Final.

The Jake Oettinger situation contributed to DeBoers dismissal, but that was the final straw, not the first.

The offense drying up for the second straight year against the Oilers in the conference final was even more damning.

With a star-caliber roster in place, management has to find a coach who can take them to the next level.

Sometimes teams opt for a veteran option in this position, but Dallas just fired a veteran with five NHL head coaching jobs under his belt.

Maybe a new direction will push this team further.

The challenge is that eight head coaches have already been scooped up this summer.

Candidates like Brad Shaw and Jay Leach have been hired or retained in assistant capacities.

Advertisement There are still interesting names out there, because, contrary to popular belief, there is a large pool of options to draw from, beyond the same names that keep circulating.

Two under-the-radar names stand out for Dallas.

The first: Oilers assistant coach Glen Gulutzan.

Not only did he design a power play that contributed to the Stars elimination in each of the last two seasons, but also he has some head coaching experience without being considered a retread.

Eleven other teams have a head coach who was last an associate or assistant at the NHL level, including three of this offseasons hirings.

If looking at current assistant coaches seems like the best route, then the Columbus Blue Jackets Misha Donskov, as pointed out by The Athletics Aaron Portzline, could be an under-the-radar pick to watch, too.

The future of Utahs No.

4 pick The Athletics Pierre LeBrun reported that Utah is listening to offers on the fourth pick, but what could a return look like? There isnt a real baseline, because its that rare of an occurrence.

A handful of top-10 picks have been moved over the years.

The Ottawa Senators flipped the No.

7 pick for Alex DeBrincat back in 2022, after a 41-goal season.

In 2017, the Rangers acquired Arizonas No.

7 pick (and Tony DeAngelo) in exchange for Derek Stephan and Antti Raanta.

In 2013, the New Jersey Devils moved the No.

9 pick to the Vancouver Canucks for Corey Schneider.

A year before that, the Pittsburgh Penguins sent Jordan Staal to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for the No.

8 pick, Brian Dumoulin and Brandon Sutter.

Jeff Carter was sent to the Philadelphia Flyers in 2011 in exchange for the No.

8 pick, Jakub Voracek and a third-rounder.

But a top-five pick hasnt been moved after the draft order was determined since 2008, when the New York Islanders moved down from fifth to seventh (and then ninth in a second trade).

So the Mammoth would be carving a new path on the value of that pick from a trade perspective if it gets moved.

Advertisement Time to put the tax conversation on ice With Florida teams reaching the Stanley Cup Final in each of the last six years, the tax conversation is back at the forefront.

Both the Lightning and Panthers have benefited from players signing below their market value, from Sam Reinhart and Gustav Forsling in Florida to Brandon Hagel in Tampa Bay.

If Sam Bennett signs a team-friendly deal to stay in Sunrise, that narrative will rage on some more.

Taxes are a part of the conversation with player contracts, but it tends to get blown out of proportion even some agents think so .

Yes, its a benefit that can help a player earn more of his paycheck in certain states, allowing a team in Florida to offer less than a team in California to maintain the same take-home amount.

Thats still true even after accounting for taxation on the road.

But its far from the only reason players want to sign with teams.

The Lightning and Panthers, along with the Stars and Golden Knights, are desirable landing spots because of a true organizational commitment to winning.

Not every team fully buys into a window of contention and invests as much as possible in a teams chances, like the Florida teams have in recent years.

And that can be a deciding factor for players hungry to rack up championship rings.

Add in the amenities some organizations offer, plus the overall lifestyle and vibe (compared to, say, Toronto), and it can be a no-brainer to sign a team-friendly deal.

This wasnt an issue when these teams werent Stanley Cup favorites.

If anything, some Sun Belt teams were at a disadvantage for years relative to traditional markets.

Imbalances will ebb and flow through the NHL, but theres a reason the CBA doesnt address each one .

Data via Evolving-Hockey , HockeyViz , HockeyStatCards , All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick .

This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.

(Top photo of Calvin Pickard: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.