2024 MLB Playoffs Preview: Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians earned a first-round bye as the second seed in the American League, but youll be hard-pressed to find an expert or projection model that favors their odds of winning the pennant.

According to FanGraphs ZiPS projections before the start of postseason play, the Guardians World Series odds are 6.7 percentaround 10 percentage points lower than the other three teams with a Wild Card series bye.

Two teamsthe Padres and Astros also started the playoffs with better World Series odds than Cleveland, despite needing to win an additional three-game series.

Thanks to the Tigers upset Wild Card Series victory over the Astros, they will face their division rivals in the next round, beginning on Saturday.

The Guardians strongest unit is its bullpen, one of the most formidable pens in recent history.

Led by Emmanuel Clase, the best closer in baseball this season, they had four relievers who pitched over 70 innings and posted ERAs below two.

The challenge will be establishing a lead for the bullpen to hold.

Aside from Jose Ramirez, their lineup has been inconsistent, and they will be at a starting pitching disadvantage against any playoff team and thanks to the mere presence of likely AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal in at least Game 2, that might even still hold true for the pitching chaos Tigers.

2024 Record : 92-69 Manager : Stephen Vogt Top hitter by fWAR : Jose Ramirez (6.5 fWAR) Top pitcher by fWAR : Tanner Bibee (3.3 fWAR) Similar to the season arcs of other postseason teams, including the Yankees , the first half of the Guardians season went better than the second.

They went 58-37 before the All-Star break and 34-32 after it.

In the latter part of the season, they struggled to produce runs, ranking 26th in both runs scored and OPS.

While the rotation saw slight improvements in the second half, they still ranked 19th in ERA.

Now, lets focus on why they are dangerous, their army of elite relievers: lowest bullpen ERA in a season, Wild Card era: 2003 Dodgers: 2.46 2013 Braves: 2.46 2013 Royals: 2.55 2024 Guardians: 2.57 They led FanGraphs War with 7.8, and had a league-best 2.57 ERA and 3.30 FIP.

Best wishes to you if you dont establish a lead in the early innings: The team had a league-best 12 losses in relief all season (league average was 28), had the most holds, and the best save percentage.

The team also went 10-3 in extra inning games.

Clases 0.69 ERA will earn him down-ballot votes in the Cy Young race.

It was the third-lowest among qualified relievers for a season in the Wild Card Era, excluding the 60-game 2020 season.

Clase relies more on groundballs than strikeouts, but he excels at inducing weak contact, ranking in the 98th and 97th percentiles, respectively, in hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

As unhittable as hes been, he doesnt have the highest fWAR in his own bullpen.

Cade Smith led all relievers in fWAR, with a 2.17 ERA, 12.3 K/9 rate, and just one home run allowed this season.

The Guardians also have Hunter Gaddis (1.57 ERA), Tim Herrin (1.92 ERA), and Eli Morgan (1.93 ERA) all at their disposal.

As for the Yankees issues with left-handed pitching , only Herrin is a lefty among this collection of standout relievers.

While Yankee fans know how a bullpens season-long workload can wear them down by October, this unit has held strong so far.

They posted a 1.31 ERA and 2.90 FIP over the past month.

The five days off may impact their hitters, but the Guardians are surely glad to have their bullpen fresh for the ALDS.

In the first half of the year, using the All-Star break as the marker, the offense rated slightly above league average overall.

However, since the break, their lineup has struggled, posting a 93 wRC+.

Post-break, they ranked 27th in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage (.295), and 24th in slugging.

Jose Ramirez came one home run short of a 40-40 season, drove in 114 runs, and had an .837 OPS.

It was his fifth season with an fWAR over six.

Since July, Ramirez has been the teams lone star on offense.

While both provide plus defense, catcher Bo Naylor and second baseman Andres Gimenez have had rough seasons offensively, with wRC+ of 74 and 83, respectively.

Although Steven Kwans season numbers are solid, he struggled down the stretch, hitting .207 after the All-Star break, which is not what you are going for as a slap hitter.

Deadline acquisition outfielder Lane Thomas started off ice-cold in Cleveland, but picked it up with an .855 OPS in September.

Rookie designated hitter Kyle Manzardo has been moved up to the second spot in the lineup, finishing with a 147 wRC+ in September.

As for their starting rotation, its been a tough season for the franchise.

Clevelands starters posted a 4.40 ERA, the seventh worst in baseball.

With Shane Bieber undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery in April, Tanner Bibee has emerged as their best starter, with a 3.47 ERA (117 ERA+) over 32 starts.

Matthew Boyd, a name you might remember from the 2019 Trade Deadline, is the lone lefty starter the Yankees may face.

Boyd has had a bumpy road since 2019 but has bounced back with Cleveland following Tommy John surgery, posting a 2.72 ERA in eight starts.

After those two, it remains to be seen who rookie manager Stephen Vogt will turn to.

The team acquired Alex Cobb at the deadline, and he gave them three strong starts (2.76 ERA), but he hasnt pitched since September 1st due to a blister, and its unclear if hell be ready for ALDS.

If rain gets involved, the team will have slim pickings for a potential ALDS series where they might need a fourth starter, with Gavin Williams (4.86 ERA), Ben Lively (3.81 ERA), or Joey Cantillo (4.89 ERA) as potential candidates.

Head-to-head the Yankees won both regular-season series, going 4-2 overall.

If you ranked the three potential ALCS matchupsAstros, Tigers, and Guardiansmany fans might prefer facing Cleveland.

Acknowledging the randomness that comes with the postseason, fans should feel confident if this is the matchup to get to the World Series, as long as the Yankees lineup can score early and avoid a late-game battle of the bullpens..

This article has been shared from the original article on pinstripealley, here is the link to the original article.