No, the Maple Leafs should not (and cannot) run it back: Mirtle mailbag

A couple weeks ago, we put out the call for mailbag questions from Maple Leafs fans after another disappointing playoff exit for Toronto.

Subscribers didnt disappoint in contributing nearly 350 for us to filter through, something I plan on doing between now and free agency.

Well start with these two, which hit on a theme Ive heard a lot since the Leafs were eliminated on May 18.

Advertisement From Curtis P.: The core of the Leafs hasnt gotten it done yet, but every season is a new opportunity just like rolling dice, past outcomes dont dictate future results.

This team is different; theyve grown, adapted, and learned.

The right move isnt to dismantle everything, but to plug that second-line centre hole and tweak the depth.

If the price is right, why not run it back with a team thats already shown it can compete at the highest level? The Atlantic Division is the toughest in the league, and if we can get through that, the skys the limit.

A few adjustments could be the key to finally breaking through.

From Danny A.: Are we holding the Leafs to different standards than other teams? Why isnt perennially in the mix in a league where anyone in the playoffs had as good a chance as any other at least considered a mild success? Mitch Marner seems as good as gone, but it feels to me like re-signing him and keeping the core as a bridge to the rising cap (which was the original plan that a frozen cap killed) would be as good a plan as any.

Even though Ive been around this team and fan base for a long, long time, Ive been surprised how many of you want the status quo.

Even after all of the losing.

Even after the way they were eliminated in the second round this time around.

If what happened this year an ugly Game 7 loss in the second round against a terrific opponent was happening for the first, or second, or even third or fourth time, then you could rationally argue to run things back.

Leafs management did just that for years, after some really tough outcomes in the playoffs in the six seasons between 2019 and 2024.

(Im counting 2017 and 2018 as a young team going through growing pains and losing to more experienced opponents.) But as we sit here, three weeks out from free agency in 2025, we know thats not what has happened.

The loss to the Panthers wasnt the second or third time something like this has occurred.

Its not a new phenomenon for a talented Leafs core to no-show in two of the biggest games of the year.

It has happened again and again and again in remarkably similar fashion.

Advertisement The Leafs core isnt young anymore.

They arent learning lessons.

William Nylander is 29.

Mitch Marner turned 28 during the playoffs, and Auston Matthews will join him there in September.

Key veterans like Morgan Rielly and John Tavares are on the back nine of their careers at 31 and 34.

Can we chalk up the implosions in Games 5 and 7 to bad luck that can be overcome with another roll of the dice? Are we sure these arent loaded dice, set to land on snake eyes more often than not? Is next season a new opportunity if you attempt the same thing again, for an eighth consecutive season, with those five players making up the majority of your star power and cap space? And how can you be sure thats the right course of action when it hasnt been so many times before? We arent holding the Leafs to a different standard than other teams.

What theyve done in running it back for so many years is unlike anything an unsuccessful franchise in pro sports has done.

Its hard to find a good comparison for an organization keeping that much of its core together for that long with this little to show for it.

(The closest comp would likely be the 2018 Washington Capitals who won the Stanley Cup after years of failed attempts, but even then, it was really only Alex Ovechkin, Nick Backstrom and defenceman John Carlson who were together for seven-plus seasons before winning, which would be akin to keeping Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly not all five members of the Leafs core.

The Mike Greens, Alexander Semins and Brooks Laichs werent kept in Washington through that many years of postseason disappointment.) Most management groups in this situation would have pulled the plug on this configuration and tried to adapt three or four years ago.

Certainly by 2023, when they still had an out to make major moves.

Advertisement As for if being perennially in the mix is considered a mild success, sure, we can call it that.

These Leafs are a mild success! Nine consecutive years in the playoffs in the Matthews era, something no other NHL team has done.

Tenth in playoff games played and 11th in wins since drafting him first overall.

Two trips out of the first round and none past the second.

But no one is arguing that the Leafs have been an unmitigated disaster the way they were previously.

Theyre arguing that mild success isnt good enough, not when the goal is to win the Stanley Cup.

Theyre arguing about what the best path forward is to be more than a mild success.

How do they win it all? What do they need to get over the top, before the inevitable rebuild comes round again? Maybe you believe thats possible with this group.

But what were seeing in these big games is repeated evidence that something is wrong, and that gets reinforced when I talk to people behind the scenes.

At this point, they very much agree they need a rethink.

The GM isnt coming out after the postseason and saying his team needs to change some DNA for show.

This core has been kept together so long that its become stale and dysfunctional, on and off the ice.

Theyve been kept together so long that they dont even believe in themselves anymore.

Think about it: If Marner truly believed they were right there, just about to break through, and there was a good chance of winning the Stanley Cup in his hometown with the Leafs, why wouldnt he have been willing to negotiate throughout the year for an eight-year deal worth massive money? Why did he seem so withdrawn and noncommittal? To me this goes beyond negotiating strategies and a players camp trying to push for the maximum dollar figure on July 1.

Its about something being fundamentally off, for Marner and for this organization.

The strange thing is the player seemed to recognize it before management did, which puts the Leafs in a real bind.

It appears almost certain at this point that theyll lose one of the best players in the NHL for very little in return, which is why some fans are getting cold feet about breaking up the core.

Even if you believe this group needs change, these are hardly ideal circumstances under which to do it.

Advertisement However, the next steps in Toronto shouldnt be the mass destruction of the roster.

For one, thats not even going to be possible, not with free agency coming fast and so much of this group under contract, with no-movement and no-trade clauses.

What GM Brad Treliving and his staff need to do instead is to try to identify how they can change the cast around the core members who stay in such a way that it resets the environment and allows them to be better in critical situations.

Watch those playoff failures and analyze the teams shortcomings not just with the core, but at every position, up and down the lineup.

There are a lot of different ways the Leafs need to be better, but realistically, only some of them can be addressed this offseason.

Assuming Marner is leaving, the change has to be focused on building a more well-rounded and less top-heavy roster, one that gets contributions down the lineup the way Florida has this postseason.

One that can control play better and produce more offence when games get tight in the playoffs.

That is going to be challenging with the Leafs lack of trade assets, a weak free agent class, and the number of quality players Toronto needs to add, but challenging does not equal impossible.

The best front offices in the league have made transformations like this in recent years swapping out core players, making bold trades and underrated signings and been better for it on the other side.

The Panthers, for example, had terrific regular season success winning the Presidents Trophy in 2022 but were swept in the second round and decided they needed to make major changes.

Four of the eight biggest-minute players on that roster were gone the next offseason.

Theyve continued to adapt and evolve over the last few years, adding key core pieces through trades and free agency, including Seth Jones, Brad Marchand, Matthew Tkachuk and Niko Mikkola.

Advertisement Thats not to say the Leafs havent changed.

The blue line, especially, has undergone a dramatic makeover in a similar time frame, with defensive defenders Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe replacing T.J.

Brodie and Jake Muzzin.

But youd be hard-pressed to call Torontos moves a successful re-envisioning, given how similar (and how small) they look when up against a championship-level opponent in a playoff series.

Its time to try something new, to cut deeper and ask the tough questions about why things havent worked.

In an ideal world, the Leafs would have properly identified the need for this level of change before Marner was set to walk for nothing.

Were going to be litigating the fallout of that for years to come, but that doesnt change the fact that trying the same thing again next season should have been out of the question either way.

The only positive out of Marners decision is it finally removes the run it back option from the equation.

It gives the Leafs a chance to reimagine what that $11 million in cap space can do for them in the playoffs if deployed differently, in support of the players who remain.

And to acknowledge that mild success isnt good enough after nearly a decade of trying.

(Top photo of Brad Treliving: Steve Russell / Toronto Star via Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.