Vladislav Gavrikov's next contract and the contract-year phenomenon

Few players took a larger and more unexpected leap than Vladislav Gavrikov did this past season.

That the hulking, 29-year-old shutdown defensemen is up for a new contract this summer is probably no coincidence.

Every year, it feels like the cream of the free-agency crop summons the best of their abilities just in time for a big payday, and Gavrikovs meteoric rise in 2024-25 was no exception.

That makes his next contract a bit tricky to price.

Advertisement Should teams pay Gavrikov for what he proved he can be last season: one of the leagues premier defensemen worthy of a top-pair role? Or should they heed caution based on what he was before that: a decent defensive No.

3? Based on colleague James Mirtles intel from the draft combine , the answer seems to be that some teams value Gavrikov based on his current contract year level as a true top-pair guy.

Thats a potentially dangerous thought.

Mirtle threw out a possible asking price of $8.5 million on max term.

Thats a dollar amount whose expected value is almost right in line with where Gavrikov finished after the 2024-25 season: a projected Net Rating of plus-7.1.

Over the life of a seven-year contract, the expectation on such a deal drops to plus-2.7 by the end.

Essentially, it starts at low-end No.

1 defenseman money and finishes at low-end No.

2 defenseman money.

If were certain thats what Gavrikov is at this point in his career, and we think Gavrikov can age fairly well, thats not a horrible bet to make.

Its the certainty of what Gavrikov currently is that creates risk, though a huge if based on a contract-year performance which may prove difficult to replicate.

Financial incentive can be a massive motivator for athletes, as it would be for any human.

It doesnt fuel everybody to the same degree, but its hard to deny it doesnt have some impact on a persons psyche.

With millions of extra dollars on the line, it should come as no surprise that players perform better with the potential of higher earnings on the line.

Its human nature and something fans in all sports have anecdotally witnessed in the past.

Heres what I found regarding the contract-year phenomenon, focusing on players expected to earn the most where aging was less of a concern.

Over the last five seasons, there have been 100 unrestricted free agent skaters aged 31 or younger projected to earn an above-average contract according to Evolving-Hockeys contract projections.

Those 100 players were expected to see their projected Net Rating decline by 0.29 goals due to age.

They instead improved by 0.55 goals, a 0.84-goal difference.

Thats the contract-year bump, something 58 percent of the sample experienced.

Advertisement Perhaps more interesting is what happens next: a steep decline back to reality.

The expected drop after getting a new contract for the 100 players based on their age was 0.46 goals (or 0.75 goals in total).

The actual decline was 1.59 goals (1.04 goals in total), completely erasing the contract-year bump and moving below the initial baseline.

65 percent of the selected skaters saw a post-contract decline larger than expected given their age.

This is hardly a definitive study, given Im looking at just the last five seasons and only 100 players in total.

But there is probably some smoke here to a phenomenon many fans are familiar with, and it should be reason enough to be wary of big jumps coincidentally timed with massive financial incentives.

For players of this age, what goes up must come down, and the downturn is often far sharper than the upswing.

Gavrikov, for the record, has the 10th largest contract-year leap within this sample of players.

Not far below him is former L.A.

King Matt Roy, a defenseman who earned a lot as a free agent last summer and serves as a potential warning sign.

Like Gavrikov, Roy too looked like a defensively elite free agent, only to struggle to live up to his contract-year hype.

While Roy was solid in his first season with Washington, he looked a lot closer to his 2022-23 level rather than his contract-year level, putting his contract on the wrong side of the good value line.

Not by a lot, but the math has changed on Roy as a result.

The contract-year bump, as it often is, was a mirage.

There are exceptions to the rule, but when it comes to free agents, if it feels too good to be true, it probably is.

Gavrikov, having a career year at this age while staring down free agency, fits the bill.

None of this is meant to take away from what Gavrikov accomplished last year for the Kings.

Its just meant to be pragmatic about what to expect of Gavrikovs 30s and not overpay for it.

Its worth mentioning that I have previously been extremely wrong about Gavrikov, specifically at the 2023 trade deadline while he was with Columbus.

An older version of the model did poorly with defensive players playing a lot of tough minutes on bad teams, wrongly rewarding efficiency without taking into account that theres a reason players like Gavrikov played at the top of the lineup.

There wasnt enough respect for the high likelihood that Gavrikov was in that role because he was truly the best option for it.

The current version of the model is better at handling those problems and wouldve likened Gavrikov to a No.

4 at the time rather than replacement level (oops).

Still wrong, but less wrong.

Advertisement The point is that Gavrikov proved me completely wrong then (and since by leaping up the lineup), and there is certainly a chance he can do so again with last years level serving as his new normal.

With only six seasons under his belt and not a lot of taxing playoff miles on his body, theres a real chance Gavrikov is a late bloomer who can buck the usual age trend and have a strong career from 30 to 35.

And while I do believe Gavrikov can age well, its the current level that Im less sure about, where a market correction next year wouldnt be surprising.

Interestingly, thats what a comp-based age curve does forecast: a steep drop next season, but a relatively graceful curve after that.

The model projects a path that has Gavrikov playing above-average defensive hockey for the next six years as a No.

2/3.

The average cost of that comes in at around $6.5 million over the next seven seasons.

Thats a fair bit lower than the $7.6 million deal AFP Analytics is expecting for Gavrikov, though higher than Evolving Hockeys $5.6 million over four seasons.

The height Gavrikov reached last season means theres room for some expected decline without major concern.

A few of his comps Johnny Boychuk, Ryan McDonagh, Paul Martin, Chris Tanev maintained a high defensive level throughout their early 30s, enough to be optimistic about Gavrikovs future.

But theres a reason theres also a lot of downside risk in every year of Gavrikovs deal, as the potential for a cliff at any point in his 30s is also very real.

Marc Methot, Marc-Edouard Vlasic and David Savard were all great defenders at one point but fell off hard over a single-season span.

In the blink of an eye, they were washed, and thats the risk with signing any rugged defensive defender for what are likely his twilight years.

Thats where figuring out the right length of term for Gavrikov is also crucial.

Gavrikovs career trajectory has been a fascinating one, and hes proven himself well over the last few years with the Kings.

Hes looked like a legit defensive ace for the team and a guy who can be the missing piece for a teams top four.

But its hard not to be worried about whats next and whether last years leap to defensive stardom can be repeated.

Advertisement Gavrikov looks like one of the leagues best defensive defensemen right now.

Is that a contract-year mirage or a sign of whats to come? If a team is paying big money for the latter, they better be sure of it and the odds arent in their favour.

Data via Evolving-Hockey and AFP Analytics (Photo: Isaiah J.

Downing / Imagn Images).

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