MLB Home Run Prop, Thursday 6/6

MLB Home Run Prop, Thursday 6/6 originally appeared on Athlon Sports.Everyone knows fans dig the longball so every day I post my favorite Home Run calls for a fun, low-risk approach to baseball betting.

Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to be first on who's going yard today.START TIME 6:10pm EST, Miller Park First off, hat tip to our guy Ronald Acuna for cashing yesterday's home run call!If it's all about the process, I try to refine my home run calls down to a template talented hitters in the top-third of a lineup and a plus-hitting environment.

Today, we find veteran slugger Christian Yelich in a great spot for the beer-makers against San Diego and struggling starter Randy Vasquez.

The 26-year-old righty is through 58.2 IP this season, and despite decent results (3.99 ERA) his under-the-hood peripherals are disastrous 5.55 SIERA, 5.86 xERA, 1.9% K-BB, 6.7% Swinging Strike, 26.5% Chase, 91.1% Zone-Contact, 43.1% Flyball, 11.6% Barrel.

Negative regression's heading this way...

Vasquez is pitching especially poorly on the road this year with truly pronounced splits vs LHH, who have crushed him all season .287 BA, .898 OPS, 50.0% Flyball, 53% Hard Hit, .627 xSLG, .435 xwOBA, and 6 HR.

He'll be doing his best to sneak that four-seam/cutter combo past Christian Yelich, amidst a ridiculous heater, especially over his last 35 vs RHP .394 BA, 1.277 OPS, 44.0% Hard Hit, 16.0% Barrel, .442 xwOBA, and 5 HR.

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:Yelich got off to such a horrid start at the dish, it was only a matter of time before he started seeing the ball well and going nuclear.

He's at home in a great hitting environment in the ultimate strength-on-weakness split.

I'm trying to make it two in a row with CHRISTIAN YELICH TO HIT A HOME RUN (+500) at Draftkings.Thanks for reading! If you're interested in upping your analytical game and finding out about my best-selling MLB/NFL Substack Betting Data page, don't be shy.

Reach out to me via DM anytime on X @JohnLaghezza and I'll hook you up with a free trial.Seven days a week you get access to my personal war room advanced NFL Team/Player data, MLB pitcher sheets, team-level statistics (time and handedness split), a daily cooked bullpen report and my custom MLBMA Moving Averages algorithm results.

This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 6, 2025, where it first appeared..

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