The Maple Leafs are down, not out: 7 ways Toronto can still win this series

OK, we know things feel a bit bleak for Toronto Maple Leafs fans right now.

But on the day of a huge elimination game for the franchise and with the Leafs coming off two very disappointing performances, we thought it was time for a little optimism to brighten things up.

This series is not over yet.

Our probabilities here at The Athletic have the Leafs with an 18 percent chance of moving on, despite all thats happened in the series.

The betting markets, meanwhile, have Torontos odds around 15 percent, depending on which site you look at.

Advertisement Those both feel a shade high to us, given how suffocating the Florida Panthers have been defensively and how mightily the Leafs stars have struggled.

But there are definitely paths here for Toronto to turn things around and get back to playing the way they did much of the regular season and in the series first two games.

Here are our seven most likely paths to success for Toronto to win two more games and extend its season.

1.

The full Nylander Somewhat lost in the Leafs postseason struggles is the fact that Playoff Willy is a weapon.

Rewind back the last five years and William Nylander has 21 goals in 40 playoff games a mark of .53 goals per game that comfortably outpaces his peers with John Tavares (.35), Auston Matthews (.32) and Matthew Knies (.32) the next-best over that span.

Nylander was held off the board entirely in Games 4 and 5, but did manage to get free for a breakaway in both games as part of 10 total shots on goal he sent on Sergei Bobrovsky.

So, whats the path here? Its a big ask.

How about two of those back-against-the-wall Nylander games that have basically become his calling card? Two years ago, when the Leafs trailed the Panthers 3-0 in Round 2, Nylander told reporters, I like pressure before opening the scoring in a 2-1 road win in Game 4.

He also sent Game 5 of that series to overtime with a late tying goal before his team was eliminated in overtime.

Last spring in Boston, Nylander opened the scoring in the third period of Game 7, only to see the Leafs lose 2-1 in overtime.

If anyone in blue and white is capable of going full Mikko Rantanen and putting the team on his back, its Nylander.

2.

The 1-0 Woll game Weve all witnessed unheralded goalies steal not only big games but even entire playoff series en route to the Stanley Cup Final.

Jean-Sebastien Giguere famously did it in 2003 with the Ducks, winning the Conn Smythe in a losing cause with a ridiculous .945 save percentage over 21 games.

At the time, he had just turned 26 years old and was only in his second year as an NHL starter.

Advertisement Similarly, Joseph Woll may be in only his second full NHL season and has only started 75 regular-season and eight playoff games.

But hes shown big-game ability in the past, posting a .933 save percentage and 1.78 goals-against average in seven playoff appearances before this season.

He played a huge role in postseason wins over the Panthers in 2023 and the Bruins last season.

The Leafs look like a team right now that really needs its goalie to lead the way and keep games close, even if theres a barrage of shots coming his way.

Goals have been hard to come by, with just two in the past eight periods dating back to the third period of Game 3, and Bobrovsky has been very good for Florida.

If Woll can steal a game here, itll go a long way to pulling off the upset.

3.

Berubes buttons Craig Berube has been the portrait of calm throughout his first season behind the Toronto bench, rarely if ever challenging players openly or even showing any obvious signs of frustration when things go sideways.

Incredibly, that includes the ugly Game 5 performance on home ice, where he felt his team was guilty of overthinking its situation and wound up standing around and watching as the Panthers took it to them.

Still, we know a quiet fire burns inside the man known as Chief.

The speech he delivered to the St.

Louis Blues before Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final in 2019 is the stuff of legend, and it preceded a game where his team had to weather a storm on the road at Bostons TD Garden before pulling out a 4-1 victory.

With this Leafs season hanging in the balance, perhaps this is the moment Berube changes his tone and approach to elicit a response from his players? Or maybe after a Game 5 where he told reporters he wasnt good enough, the coach lands on the lineup changes that disrupt Floridas apparent matchup edge? Advertisement If he wants to go down that road, Berube wont have trouble finding material to push an us against the world mentality.

Hes already made it clear hes trying to get in the minds of his players, urging them to take the thinking out.

Go play.

Be aggressive.

He made one promise before getting on Thursdays flight to Florida.

Well be a lot better in Game 6.

Then he needs to take care of Game 7.

4.

The unsung heroes step up What made Floridas win on Wednesday extra special is that it wasnt powered by the superstars.

The big goals were scored by guys named Dmitry Kulikov, Adam Boqvist, Niko Mikkola and A.J.

Greer players on the bottom end of the NHL pay scale who could comfortably walk around a hockey-mad city like Toronto without even garnering a second glance.

The Leafs had some of that mojo going on in Round 1.

Remember the Simon Benoit overtime winner? Even Max Domis overtime goal against Ottawa felt like a gift, given his struggles to put the puck in the net in recent years.

The reason this potential scenario appears as low as it does is because the Panthers have seemingly stamped out the mini miracles that can make a huge difference in a tight game.

There are 11 skaters in this series who havent scored a goal yet for the Leafs.

Among the top candidates for a breakthrough? Bobby McMann, a 20-goal scorer in the regular season, has gone 22 games since last finding the back of the net.

Calle Jarnkrok if he plays who hasnt scored in 26 games.

Or how about a really unlikely one from Scott Laughton or Steven Lorentz? Heck, the Leafs would even take a random David Kampf goal at this point.

Every single goal you score with the season on the line matters, no matter who shoots it in the net.

5.

Panthers get Vanecekd The Panthers have enjoyed a goaltending edge in this series since the third period of Game 1, when Bobrovsky started to settle himself after a shaky start for Florida and Woll found himself thrust into the Toronto crease with Anthony Stolarz out injured.

Thats not to suggest that Wolls been bad.

Hes actually recorded both Toronto wins in this series.

But theres been a modest drop-off in performance compared to what would have been expected with Stolarz starting Games 2-7.

Advertisement If the shoe were on the other foot, the expected drop-off would be more than modest.

It could even be catastrophic.

Bobrovskys backup is Vitek Vanecek, who has 10 career playoff appearances under his belt and is officially in journeyman territory while playing for his third NHL team in two years.

He hasnt seen any game action in a month.

Fortunately for the Panthers, Bobrovsky is one of the best-conditioned and most focused athletes in the entire league.

Even at age 36, he is an absolute workhorse with no apparent injury concerns.

He remains incredibly athletic and flexible.

Its safe to say that Florida wouldnt want to face a big game without him.

The entire dynamic of the series could shift if that happened.

6.

Matthews and Marner figure it out The ninth time is the charm? The pressure has never been higher on the Leafs two superstar talents.

This, their 12th game of the postseason, is the deepest theyve ever played into the playoffs in their careers, and they struggled badly in Wednesdays ugly 6-1 loss in Game 5.

Its not unheard of for both to produce in the playoffs.

Matthews had nine goals and 20 points in 18 playoff games between 2022 and 2023.

Mitch Marner had 22 points in those same 18 games.

Where theyve fallen short, repeatedly, is in big elimination games, and with Marner contract-less after July 1, theres no bigger moment than this one to extend their season and prove the doubters wrong on Friday and Sunday.

Youd be hard-pressed to bet on this as an outcome, given how many times weve seen this play out the wrong way before.

Thats why this is near the bottom of our list.

But the Leafs have to desperately hope their two stars find a way to give them more than they have so far in this series.

7.

Divine intervention Divine intervention from the weather postponing the outcome feels unlikely, but maybe some sort of illness could strike at the right time, decimating Floridas roster? Maybe the Panthers could get stuck in gnarly Toronto traffic before Game 7 and the Leafs have a chance to score on an empty net a few times before they arrive at Scotiabank Arena? Advertisement What if former Panthers legend Joe Nieuwendyk comes out of retirement, signs an ATO with Toronto, and slips two quick wristers between Bobrovskys legs early in the deciding game to seal the win? Or maybe the hockey gods will simply decide the Leafs have had enough punishment after 58 years and lift the curse, leading to a 12-0 Game 7 win where the Core Four all somehow get first-period hat tricks and ride their sticks around at center ice like Tie Domi the rest of the night? Hey, anythings possible, right? (Top photo of Joseph Woll: John E.

Sokolowski / Imagn Images).

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