Can the Maple Leafs respond after yet another playoff stinker? Here's what data tells us

Bad games happen in the playoffs to every team.

Horrible games happen, too.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Game 5 performance the teams stinkiest stinker to ever stink was not that special in the grand scheme of things.

But it was a helluva symptom.

Bad and horrible games may happen to every team.

They just dont happen as often as they happen to the Leafs.

Advertisement Since 2007-08, teams have played 3,000 playoff games collectively and excluding elimination games (well get to why in a second), 181 of them have been stinkers from one side.

That would mean teams get blown out losing by four or more goals 5.7 percent of the time.

Again, stuff happens, even to the best of the best.

Toronto, in 75 playoff games, has seven such losses, or 9.3 percent.

That is tied for the fifth-worst mark in the league with Montreal, trailing only Winnipeg (11.7 percent), Florida (11.4 percent), New Jersey (11.1 percent) and Philadelphia (9.8 percent).

Floridas place near the top of that list is a surprise, especially when looking at other teams that have won the Stanley Cup since 2008.

This stuff just does not happen to winners nearly as often.

Detroit: 1.9 percent (1st) Washington: 2.5 percent (3rd) Boston: 3.7 percent (5th) St.

Louis: 4.2 percent (7th) Chicago: 4.4 percent (8th) Los Angeles: 4.6 percent (9th) Pittsburgh: 5.4 percent (14th) Vegas: 5.7 percent (17th) Tampa Bay: 6.4 percent (21st) Colorado: 6.4 percent (22nd) Florida: 11.4 percent (29th) Aside from Florida, the franchises with championship pedigrees have simply not struggled as much as the Leafs have with this specific problem.

Good teams can get their doors blown off on occasion it just shouldnt happen this frequently.

The championship programs from the last two decades have put up a stinker in just 4.9 percent of games.

In Stanley Cup-winning years, that rate drops to 3.5 percent.

I could easily give you a list of games where the eventual Stanley Cup winners got walloped during the playoffs (the team the Leafs are playing lost 8-1 and 5-1 in the Final last year, just as one example), but it doesnt really matter.

The problem with the Leafs is that it happens to them more.

Significantly more.

Advertisement There is a solution to that problem though, one that can also separate the teams that have it from the teams that dont: respond.

Winning it all has never been an easy ride for any team (well, except maybe the 2012 Kings), and while the ability to not get punched in the face is important, so too is the ability to get back up and throw one back.

The best of the best do not let a stinker define them; they exact revenge for it and even the score.

The Leafs are, technically, not done yet.

It certainly feels that way, especially to a deeply cynical city that has seen this same team do the same thing over and over and over again.

But Toronto does have a chance to respond, and thats something the Leafs have generally been actually good at.

Theyve already done it once these playoffs: a statement 4-2 win to ice the series against the Senators after a wretched Game 5 performance.

They have the ability to do it again.

That win is part of a trend thats been consistent during this era of Leafs hockey.

In the immediate game after a stinker where the Leafs have had a chance to respond, they have.

Toronto is 5-1 in response games, an 0.833 win percentage that trails only Detroit (2-0, 1.000), Dallas (6-1, 0.857) and San Jose (6-1, 0.857) since 2008.

The Leafs are also just a step ahead of Florida at 8-2 (0.800).

While the list of response game win percentages isnt as neatly tied to championship pedigree as the just dont lose that badly in the first place list, it does correlate well to a teams actual performance during the playoffs.

After a blowout loss in the playoffs, bad teams lie down and take their punishment, good teams hold their own evenly and great teams respond with a vengeance.

Teams that make the final four have a 0.642 win percentage in response games compared to a 0.426 win percentage for teams that lose in the opening two rounds.

Stanley Cup champions in particular are at 0.786.

The Stars, Oilers and Panthers the three teams many expect to win this year are a perfect 4-0 this year in response games, by the way.

Great teams bounce back.

Advertisement The Leafs are very bad at not getting punched in the face.

Extremely bad.

Frustratingly bad.

Frequently getting punched in the face, often in the most demoralizing way possible, is one of the reasons (among many) they never go far.

But theyve also shown in the past that they have the nerve and ability to get back up and punch back.

Thats still something they can do in this series.

All season, all weve heard is how this team is different and part of that is the presence of Craig Berube behind the bench.

Look back at his work in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final: In Game 3 at home, the Blues lost 7-2 to the Bruins.

The next game they won 4-2.

In Game 6 at home, with a chance to win it all, the Blues lost 5-1.

You know what happened next, and the moment in front of Berube now offers a chance to add to that legacy.

This Leafs team might not be different.

In fact, they probably arent.

They are probably going to lose this series and they will probably lose Game 6, given theyll be massive underdogs on the road against the defending champions.

If they win, Game 7 is a whole other monster they havent shown they can handle.

Even with a response win, theyd probably just lose that game anyway.

The Leafs were always more probable than not to lose this series and the odds now are greatly stacked against them.

The team on the other side, arguably the leagues best team, should not be discounted in all of this either .

And yet ...

the Leafs havent lost yet.

There was a dreadful sameness to the teams Game 5 blowout loss, yes, but the series isnt over.

They still have a chance to prove this year really is different and that starts with pulling off something they are more than capable of doing: flush it down the toilet, as per Mitch Marner, and win in response.

Just because the Leafs have done that often before doesnt mean they will in Game 6.

Just because Berube was behind the bench for two big response wins in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final doesnt mean hell oversee the same in Game 6 either.

Playoff narratives are born out of small sample sizes and this one isnt any different.

Maybe whats actually different this year is that the Leafs dont even have a response.

The point is that they still have an opportunity to respond and a chance to still prove themselves even if its almost unfathomable to believe they can or will.

The Leafs backs are against the wall.

Thats where theyve often done their best work, and this time the stakes could not be higher.

Great teams have a tendency to respond.

Bad teams have a tendency to wilt.

The Leafs cant show who they really are until the series is actually over.

With an entire era on the line, the Leafs can still punch back, get revenge, force Game 7 and prove their worth.

Or they can lie down and take their punishment.

The choice is theirs.

Data via Evolving Hockey (Top photo of Auston Matthews and Niko Mikkola: John E.

Sokolowski / Imagn Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.