The most intriguing wagers around Rockets-Warriors, Kentucky Derby, Chelsea-Liverpool and more

Welcome to the Opening Line, where we look at ways to have a little fun betting on the upcoming weekends biggest events.

This weekend, weve got NBA playoff action, a showdown between MLB heavyweights, a high-profile Premier League clash, and of course, the Kentucky Derby.

Lets get to it! (All odds referenced as of Friday morning.) Advertisement Houston Rockets vs.

Golden State Warriors Friday, 9 p.m.

EST ESPN The Bet: Over 207.5 points (-105) When betting on sports, one of the things I say most frequently other than Why the hell did I put cash on Kirk Cousins? is that Overs make friends, Unders make money.

Its far more fun to root for high-powered action, so the line often feels like it reflects the desired outcome more than what the underlying analytics might suggest.

But here, it feels like the line has swung a bit too far the other way.

The teams have been averaging 208 points over the first five contests, and this comes after they combined to average 227 points/game in the regular season.

So we have already seen the impact of playoff defense on the matchup, and they are still clearing 207.5 on average.

Additionally, since the series moved to an every-other-day cadence, points have increased each contest, peaking at a combined 247 on Wednesday.

Its hard to keep up the intensity night after night, and if it were Game 7, where both teams were going to empty the tank, I might feel differently.

But Game 6 feels like a sweet spot where you can make both friends and money in a frisky Friday night clash.

Atlanta Braves vs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Friday, 7:15 p.m.

EST MLB Network The Bet: Dodgers -2.5 runs (+145) Despite the team losing the top spot in the The Athletics most recent power rankings , playing the adjusted run line for the Dodgers remains one of my favorite bets in baseball.

Unsurprisingly, they lead the NL in homers and are second in OBP, meaning runs often come in bunches and 12 of their 21 wins have come by a 3+ margin.

By pushing the line upward, you are usually rewarded with a nice plus number payday ...

as long they arent facing the Savannah Bananas, or even worse, the Colorado Rockies.

While the Braves havent been as fearsome a month into the season as initially projected, they still command enough respect to get you solid odds for each of the three games (Ill be taking the projected plus money on both Friday and Saturday before reassessing for Sunday).

And the Dodgers getting a guaranteed extra round of at-bats on the road is good news for those of us betting on them to pile on.

Advertisement If you wanted to lay off the action Friday night so you can focus solely on the raw audacity of Grant Holmes mullet, I cant blame you.

Youd think that Churchill Downs would be the site of the most debauchery in sports this weekend, but its got nothing on his party in the back.

The Kentucky Derby Saturday, 6:57 p.m.

EST NBC The Bet: Citizen Bull to Win/Place/Show Ah yes, one of my favorite gambling events of the year, where the Twitter-esque vibe of people professing expertise on a subject they know nothing about makes its way offline to a cocktail party near you.

Am I guilty of this as well? Ive certainly been known to mutter his mother was a mudder after a mint julep or three.

After reading about the names , I was tempted to go with Tiztastic, because it sounds exactly like a word my daughters try to convince me is cool new slang in an effort to get me to embarrass myself (jokes on them, I dont need help!), but my money is going to back the Bob Baffert narrative .

The famous trainer and clear aesthetic inspiration for Uncle Baby Billy on Righteous Gemstones is coming off a three-year suspension from Churchill Downs for Misbahavin and I refuse to believe his return will be without some late drama.

The legendary trainer has seen his horses cross the line first seven times though one was wiped out after the failed drug test that led to his ban.

The late, dramatic scratch of Rodriguez, as well as Citizen Bull drawing the No.

1 post was clearly just the simulation we live in making sure there were even more challenges for Baffert to overcome in the third act.

The odds continue to shift and I wouldnt love only holding a win ticket at 20-1 (as of Friday morning), so Ill be playing across the board and betting on the cameras cutting to Baffert urging his horse to finish strong to end up in the top three after the greatest two minutes in sports.

The only thing Im truly certain of is that if you want to bet on Journalism after reading this column, I wish you a lot of luck.

Advertisement Chelsea vs.

Liverpool Sunday at 11:30 a.m.

EST Peacock The Bet: Both teams score and Over 2.5 goals (-130) A bit of the luster was taken out of one of the annual bright spots of the Premier League schedule when Liverpool clinched the Premier League title last weekend.

But this just creates a wagering opportunity.

With nothing left to play for this season, Liverpool is free to express themselves with reckless abandon, which should lead to a highly entertaining game for the neutral.

Chelsea, of course, are no stranger to chaos and are desperate for all three points as they fight for Champions League football next year, with a draw representing a setback towards this critical goal.

It reminds me of the late season fixture between these two sides in 2020 after Pool had already clinched, and that game ended up 5-3.

A full repeat might be a tall task, but both teams getting on the board once or twice feels like a foregone conclusion.

Make sure you tune in early for the honor guard, where the billion dollar Chelsea squad will line up to capitulate and salute the champions in front of their own fans.

Imagine asking Draymond Green or Ray Lewis to do this.

It might be the least transferrable thing from England to American culture and this is a country that gave us black pudding and Piers Morgan.

Indiana Pacers vs.

Cleveland Cavaliers Sunday, 7:30 p.m.

EST TNT The Bet: Darius Garland Over 26.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-125) After the NBAs dad, Ernie Johnson, had to tell the Miami Heat Im not mad, Im disappointed, it will be nice to get to watch the Cavaliers play a game against a proper opponent.

Cleveland enters the series as a -500 favorite to advance, which honestly feels a little heavy to me.

The Pacers showed a lot of resolve in ousting the Bucks and arent likely to go down without a fight (or at least some verbal jousting, if Tyrese Haliburtons dad has anything to say about it).

While Im not fully certain of the outcome, the Pacers will struggle to break down a stubborn Cavs defense in the halfcourt, so their best chance comes from playing fast and increasing the variance.

It shouldnt be too hard to bait Cleveland into that tempo, given both of these teams finished in the top 10 in pace this year.

If that is the style, Darius Garland will absolutely thrive and hes cleared 26.5 points/rebounds/assists with ease in 8 of his last 9 games.

Youll need to check the injury report, but as long as he can go, this is my favorite bet for Game 1 of what promises to be a tiztastic series.

Toby Mergler is a freelance contributor to The Athletic and is the co-founder of the Extra Points Podcast Network.

Hes hosted podcasts for ESPN and served as a columnist for Vice Sports, MLB.com and ESPN Page 2.

He would tell you where he got his degrees, but the school offered him a sweetheart deal to actually erase his name, image and likeness.

(Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images).

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