How much more can Oilers winger Connor Brown contribute this season?

Edmonton Oilers winger Connor Brown is finally healthy and fans are looking forward to seeing what he can accomplish offensively over 82 games.

There are strong odds Brown will soar past last season (five-on-five totals: 4-8-12 in 71 games) in 2024-25.

Brown spent most of last season recovering from injury and then playing himself back into game shape.

The offence started to come around in the final 17 games of the season, as he scored four goals and seven points (including all situations) down the stretch.

Advertisement Brown is likely to occupy the No.

3 right wing spot on Edmontons depth chart in 2024-25.

Hell line up with veteran centre Adam Henrique , who is a solid offensive player.

What should you expect from Brown in 2024-25? Its complicated.

Under suppression Browns most successful offensive season at five-on-five came in 2019-20.

He scored 16 goals and 43 points in 71 games while playing for the Ottawa Senators .

Brown posted a 1.99 points per 60 total at five-on-five, the highest of his career.

It ranked second among Senators forwards behind Anthony Duclair (2.04) that season.

His most common centre was Jean-Gabriel Pageau , a phenomenal two-way player but a mid-level offensive talent (1.47 points per 60 at five-on-five) at that point in his career.

The lack of offence had much to do with his quality of competition.

Pageau played first-line minutes (heavy lifting versus elites) and delivered third-line offence for Ottawa in 2019-20.

However, Brown played the same type of minutes and posted stronger offence.

He produced 1.99 points per 60, No.

89 among forwards with 500-plus minutes at five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick .

The NHL in 2019-20 was a 31-team league, meaning the top 93 scoring forwards were top-line talents.

Brown qualified as a first-line talent, barely, but considering the quality of competition his peak offensive season should be considered substantial.

How tough were Browns minutes? Puck IQ tells us Brown played a stunning 42 percent of his five-on-five time versus elites in 2019-20.

Puck IQ also puts Pageau-Brown at 285 minutes versus elites in 2019-20, with good possession numbers and high quality totals relative to teammates.

He delivered 1.99 points per 60 in an atmosphere that resembled Blade Runner ; solid results under extreme conditions.

Browns 2019-20 season was impressive.

Advertisement What has changed? In 2019-20, Brown was 25 and the best available right winger on the Senators (although Tyler Ennis was also on the roster for most of that season).

He could play a complete game and that helped Ottawa in doling out playing time.

He played 42 percent of his time versus elites at five-on-five.

As he enters 2024-25, Brown is not projected to be a feature player.

If he chips in offensively with two or three goals a month, hits 15 overall and helps the Oilers outscore opponents, thats a good year.

If he can stay healthy, deliver 1.50 points per 60 and help his line outscore? The Oilers will have a quality veteran on a value contract.

Much of the projection surrounds quality of competition and Henriques ability to create offence from the centre position on the third line.

Remember, Brown delivered marginal first-line production while playing with an average offensive centre (who kicked ass as a two-way forward).

Lets compare Henrique last season to Pageau in 2019-20.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick Ive included Henriques work in both NHL cities last year, faded Pageaus work with the New York Islanders (he didnt play much) in 2019-20.

Both players are productive, Pageau at 26 and Henrique at 33.

Henrique is a better offensive player and ran a little luck (the gap between goal percentage and expected goal percentage) a year ago.

Puck IQs look at Henriques time in California last season shows strong results against mid-level and easier competition, and struggles (38.5 percent Dangerous Fenwick, similar to expected goals) against elites.

Overall, his DFF was 46 percent, average compared to his Anaheim teammates, and his line outscored competition by a goal at five-on-five including all competition.

Once in Edmonton, Henrique played mid-level or easier competition over 70 percent of the time (winning the goal share 14-7) and those are the target minutes for his line in 2024-25.

Advertisement If the coaching staff deploys the line in a similar fashion this season, Brown should be able to cash consistently playing with Henrique in 2024-25.

How much offence for Brown? He scored a goal against the Winnipeg Jets on Wednesday night and should score well enough to deliver double his point total at five-on-five one year ago (4-8-12).

In Browns peak season with the Senators, he and Pageau played most often with Brady Tkachuk (282 minutes).

That trio averaged 2.13 goals per 60 at five-on-five.

In 299 minutes away from Tkachuk, the two forwards delivered 2.41 goals per 60.

Brown posted a 1.99 points per 60 at five-on-five that season on a line that didnt have an elite scoring driver to push the river offensively.

That was then, this is now.

He is older, some of the skill has eroded and hell be relied on for penalty killing and checking duties.

Hes also going to play major minutes against the soft parade.

After he finally found his scoring touch in mid-March of the 2023-24 season, Brown scored 2.36 points per 60 at five-on-five.

Thats a sensational total.

He did it with Mattias Janmark and various centres, including Henrique (Brown spent 32 minutes with him as his centre after the deadline) but the key was his health and quality of competition.

Puck IQ has Brown outscoring mid-level and the soft parade opponents 6-4 during the final 17 games of the season.

He played less than 20 percent of his five-on-five time versus elites and used his improved scoring touch to move the needle.

Last seasons 2.36 points per 60 in the final run seems unreasonable as an outer marker for Brown.

The 1.99 points per 60 from 2019-20 came while playing big minutes against elite competition with a possession wizard.

That number also seems a bridge too far for a player no longer in his prime.

Advertisement If Janmark, Henrique and Brown hang around all season playing (mostly) mid-level and the soft parade, a reasonable estimate for Brown is somewhere between 1.60 and 1.75 points per 60.

If he gets minutes with McDavid or Draisaitl, fans can expect a stronger number.

For perspective, all of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.66 points per 60), Evander Kane (1.62 points per 60) and Ryan McLeod (1.60 points per 60) scored in that range five-on-five for the Oilers one year ago.

Considering his two-way acumen, PK ability and outscoring prowess when healthy, thats a nice neighbourhood.

Expect strong value for dollars spent from Connor Brown in 2024-25.

Dont expect 20 goals.

If he scores 20, it will be a shoot-the-moon season for the now healthy veteran.

(Photo: Sam Navarro / USA Today).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.