Mirtle: 6 reasons why the Maple Leafs have the Senators on the verge of elimination

Three games.

Three wins.

This is an unusual feeling for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who for two decades have made things difficult on themselves (and their fan base) in the playoffs.

But the Leafs now have the Ottawa Senators on the brink of elimination, with the possibility of a sweep on Saturday in Game 4.

Advertisement The franchise hasnt had a sweep in 24 years.

And they have won just one playoff round since 2004.

Other than a lopsided Game 1, the margins in this series have been slim.

Toronto pulled out the last two games in overtime with goals from down the lineup, with Max Domi and Simon Benoit playing the unlikely heroes early in the extra frames.

But there are a lot of reasons the Leafs are deservingly up 3-0 right now.

Lets dig into the top ones, ranking them one through six.

1.

The power play Ottawa clearly came into this series ready to play with emotion and physicality.

It burned them in Game 1 after a number of bad penalties ended up in the back of their net.

The Leafs power play was dominant throughout the second half of the regular season converting around 30 percent but its largely been ineffective year after year in the postseason.

The fact that its been so deadly in this series has been the biggest difference maker overall.

The Senators simply dont seem to have an answer for the fluid puck movement and creativity being thrown at them right now when theyre on the kill.

The Leafs have scored five of their 12 goals in the series (42 percent) on the man advantage and have converted on 56 percent of their nine power plays.

Whats been more impressive than the overall number of power-play goals, however, is just how efficient the Leafs top unit has been.

Toronto has spent only nine minutes and 58 seconds on the power play all series because theyve ended so many of their opportunities early with a goal.

During the season, the Leafs were seventh in the NHL with 9.25 goals per 60 minutes on the power play.

In the playoffs, they have scored at a ridiculous 30.1 goals per 60 minutes rate, meaning theyre scoring on average every single two-minute stretch.

Youre going to win a lot of series with that type of weapon in your arsenal.

Maybe even all of them.

Advertisement 2.

Goals from unlikely sources The Leafs big guns have delivered on the man advantage.

But whats made Toronto harder to defend is that theyre getting offence from a lot of sources right now.

One of the real concerns coming into the postseason was that if teams shut down the Core Four and Matthew Knies, the Leafs wouldnt be able to generate enough offence.

But through three games, the Leafs have five of their seven even-strength goals from either down the lineup or the defence.

Consider that Toronto finished dead last during the season with only 21 goals from its blue line all year.

Already in the playoffs, they have four goals from their D: Benoit, Morgan Rielly (x2) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

That ranks first in the NHL postseason so far.

Even the players who havent scored for Toronto have been chipping in with scoring chances, with Pontus Holmberg and the fourth line of Steven Lorentz, Scott Laughton and Calle Jarnkrok perfect examples of offering unlikely threats at key times.

That newfound balance has made the Leafs hard to handle for the Senators, who have actually limited Torontos top players decently well at even strength.

3.

Goaltending A lot of the damage here came in Game 1, when Linus Ullmark did not play well and allowed six goals.

But the fact that Anthony Stolarz has a .926 save percentage and Ottawa is getting .815 from their No.

1 ahead of only Edmontons Stuart Skinner is hard to ignore.

Now, Ullmark has faced more difficult opportunities, especially with the power play factored in.

The Senators expected goals against in the series are at 8.15 compared to only 7.05 for the Leafs.

But the gap in saves being made is far larger than that.

Even just over the past two games, Stolarz has faced chances equivalent to 4.15 goals against and hes allowed four goals.

Ullmark has faced chances equivalent to 4.25 goals against and allowed six.

Advertisement Those margins are enough to decide a series, especially when theres a skill disparity at the top of the lineup between the Leafs big guns and the Senators best players.

For Ottawa to win this series, they needed to have the better goaltender, and that simply hasnt been the case.

4.

The Core Four have delivered Heading into the third period of Game 3, the Senators checking line, led by Shane Pinto, had done a marvellous job of shutting down Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

At even strength, the Leafs top line had generated hardly anything, and that was a huge reason the game was only 1-1 entering the final 20 minutes.

Then Marner and Matthews scored this circus goal and put Ottawa on its back foot again.

AUSTON MATTHEWS THE CAPTAIN GETS THE GO-AHEAD GOAL! pic.twitter.com/wEwgiHi1wY Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 25, 2025 Much of their production has come on the power play, but overall, the Leafs top players have delivered.

Marner is second in NHL scoring with six points in three games.

Matthews has five and Tavares and Nylander have four apiece.

Well see what happens in the elimination game(s), but so far, so good on the star front for Toronto.

5.

The defence is blocking everything (and other intangibles) Theres been a surprisingly high amount of analytics discourse around this series, starting when Senators coach Travis Green pointed out he thought his team had been better, analytically, at five-on-five in Game 1s 6-2 loss.

At only the surface level, that certainly appears to be true for the series as a whole.

The Senators, for example, have 206 shot attempts to just 145 for Toronto in the three games.

At even strength, theyve also generated nearly 60 percent of pucks thrown at the net, which tends to be a decent proxy for puck possession and offensive zone time.

Advertisement But one huge equalizer for the Leafs has been their willingness to get in shooting lanes and block many of those attempts.

Toronto leads the playoffs with 67 blocks so far, which works out to 22 per 60 minutes of play.

Ottawa, meanwhile, has only 35, a little more than half that.

All that congestion in front of Stolarz has also led to the Senators missing the net a lot, as theyve been off target 57 times so far, the most in the NHL and 15 more times than Toronto.

Add in the fact that the Leafs have dominated in the faceoff circle, winning more than 57 percent of their draws good for first in the league and its clear that Torontos doing a lot of the little things well.

Matthews won 13 of the 20 draws he took in Game 3, including the faceoff play that led to the overtime winner.

6.

Simon Benoit cant be stopped Hard to argue with this stat after the most unlikely player on the Leafs was the driving force behind two consecutive OT winners.

Now hes entered NHL playoff history.

Simon Benoit became the seventh defenseman in #StanleyCup Playoffs history to factor on an overtime goal in consecutive games and lifted the @MapleLeafs to a 3-0 series lead in the 'Battle of Ontario.' #NHLStats : https://t.co/ez9Q7faY5Y pic.twitter.com/HKRDvvnKt9 NHL Public Relations (@NHLPR) April 25, 2025 Benoit was never drafted, battled his way up through the minors, and has had an up-and-down season.

He also had never scored a playoff goal in junior or the AHL.

Its always great to see unsung heroes step up in the playoffs.

And hes one of the reasons Toronto has a commanding lead in the series after three games.

(Top photo: Chris Tanouye / Freestyle Photography / Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.