Stanley Cup Checklist 2.0: Analyzing the rosters of the NHL playoff teams

After a necessary Cup Checklist refresh , its time to see how it applies to this years 16 playoff teams.

For those who need a quick reminder, the Cup Checklist is a guide based on the rosters of Stanley Cup champions from the last 15 years.

Its a five-point threshold based on the average player from those rosters, separated by role.

There are 13 roles separated into three cores.

Heres what that looks like.

Lets dive in, with the 16 teams separated into five tiers based on how many boxes they tick on the Cup Checklist.

All values are normalized to six goals per win to account for changing scoring environments over the last 15 years.

Teams are sorted and separated based on the number of players ranked solid or above, ideal or above, and total Cup Checklist value.

Tampa Bay Lightning What works No team checks more boxes than the Lightning, who hit the solid mark in all but three instances.

Just as impressive is that they hit ideal targets more than half the time.

Thats mostly thanks to a ridiculously stacked forward group led by Nikita Kucherov, who is somehow even better than the 2020 and 2021 versions of himself.

This Kucherov is a luxury as a franchise forward, hes been that good.

Brayden Point remains by his side, but its the addition of Jake Guentzel and the emergence of Brandon Hagel that really takes things up a notch.

Between Guentzel and Point, the Lightning have the leagues better third-scorer option, while Hagels two-way game is seriously special.

Add Anthony Cirellis massive impact at both ends of the ice and the Lightning have the best quintet of forwards in hockey.

With the additions of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde, depth behind them isnt a problem either.

Advertisement Defensively, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak are about as good as it gets as a shutdown pair, allowing Victor Hedman to keep doing his thing as the No.

1.

They help make life easy for Andrei Vasilevskiy who looks like his vintage self this season.

The Lightning are loaded where it counts.

What doesnt Tampa Bays one exception to the rule is the lack of a scoring defenseman after Hedman.

That was the trade-off the Lightning made when they shipped off Mikhail Sergachev in order to reacquire McDonagh.

With how potent this teams forward group is, it made sense to prioritize the defense group in this way.

Still, its a void not capably filled by either Darren Raddysh or J.J.

Moser.

On top of that, theres also the question of Victor Hedmans defensive game.

Its bounced back from years past now that hes back to a secondary matchup role, but still not enough to be above average.

Thats a concern given the teams depth defenders arent strong in that regard either.

As good as McDonagh and Cernak are, they may not have the necessary defensive support around them.

Hedman being his vintage self without the puck is crucial to the Lightning going deep in a tough division.

Florida Panthers What works No team enters the playoffs without one exception to the rule but Florida is close if you average out Gustav Forslings two boxes.

That bodes well for their hopes of going back-to-back.

Hockey is a strong link game and it pays to have a high quantity of those strong links.

Mission accomplished for Florida.

Between Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart, the Panthers might have the best big three in hockey.

And their forward depth after that is stupid good.

Brad Marchand, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett are a nice combo in the top six.

On the third line, the combination of Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen offers a lot of defensive peace of mind.

Advertisement With Sergei Bobrosvky looking solid, the Panthers look like theyll be very tough to knock off.

What doesnt If we have to nitpick, its probably with Floridas top four which already sounds silly given who occupies it.

Mainly, the issue is the teams defensive game after Forsling.

Aaron Ekblad has seen a real drop-off there and while Mikkola is a rock, his Defensive Rating does pale in comparison to the other shutdown defenders from years past.

Last year that role went to Ekblad as Brandon Montour filled the scoring defenseman role.

With Ekblad regressing, Mikkola shifts up where he doesnt quite stack up.

Even as a defensive defenseman, Ekblads game doesnt stack up to past players, though he at least makes up for it with his offense.

The Panthers can probably get away with that with offense being the teams source of strength this year.

But it does mean Florida will only have two real defensive needle-movers in the top four this year.

Will that be enough against the offensive firepower in Tampa Bay and Toronto? Dallas Stars What works The Stars have some serious firepower.

While Jason Robertson is only passable as a franchise guy, the rest of the forward group stacks up extremely well offensively.

Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Mason Marchment and Mikael Granlund? Thats as deep as it gets.

Combine that with having Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley bringing the puck up ice and joining the attack and the Stars offense will feel relentless.

Between Heiskanen, Harley and Esa Lindell, the Stars have the defensive might on the back end to take things to another level.

With Jake Oettingers stellar goaltending, Dallas looks well-situated to go all the way this season when healthy.

What doesnt The Stars havent looked right without Heiskanen and while hes likely to return during the first round, the Stars will have to survive in the meantime.

Their defensive depth is a big problem and it shows with a glaring red box in the depth core.

Having Ilya Lyubushkin or Cody Ceci or Matt Dumba as the teams options for a No.

4 is truly harrowing.

Advertisement Defense is also an issue with the forward group, where Hintz doesnt appear to be a particularly adequate shutdown forward.

He once flashed that skill set in the past, but his defensive numbers lately havent agreed with that reputation.

The Stars dont have a depth forward that can offer support defensively either.

Only six of Dallas forwards grade out above average defensively and two of them are fourth-liners.

The Stars make up for that offensively, but theres a chance the team is a bit too one-dimensional in that vein.

Without Heiskanen to start , theyll need to drastically outscore defensive deficiencies even further.

Compared to other contenders, there may be too many exceptions to the rule here.

Toronto Maple Leafs What works Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are still a luxury duo even if the former forgot how to score this year.

The two continue to be among the games best forwards, capable of scoring 100 points while not sacrificing any defense in return.

Thats hard to do and is Torontos biggest advantage.

Having William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies around that duo makes for an extremely strong top end offensively with some defensive bite to go along with it.

This season, the back end looks significantly beefed up defensively thanks to the additions of Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo.

Both make the Leafs a lot tougher to score on.

Not more than Anthony Stolarz, though, who has been an absolute revelation.

The Leafs have never entered a playoff in this era with goaltending as strong as what they have now.

Maybe thats finally the difference.

What doesnt The Leafs face the same two major problems they always do: they do not have a franchise defenseman and their depth is fairly inadequate.

Jake McCabe is a great defenseman and is perfectly acceptable without the puck to be a teams top guy.

But offensively and overall, hes lacking.

His lack of offense is a symptom of the entire blue line, where Morgan Rielly also doesnt grade out that well next to past scoring defensemen on Cup teams.

If the Leafs win, theyll be the exception to the rule: winning it all with a top-four-by-committee approach.

No true No.

1.

On top of that, the teams depth after the teams top five forwards takes a steep nosedive.

Bobby McMann once looked passable as the sixth option, but has fallen into a slump.

After him the offensive options only get worse.

If Matthews and co.

at the top get cold as they often do in the playoffs the Leafs dont seem to have the depth scoring to cover.

Advertisement Winnipeg Jets What works Connor Hellebuyck is the luxury of all luxuries.

If hes dialed in, the Jets can beat anyone.

What sets this version of the Jets apart though is that its not just Hellebuyck.

Josh Morrissey is a perfect franchise defenseman, the teams depth looks really strong and Dylan Samberg has stepped up as a shutdown force.

Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele have also elevated their games considerably this season, finally looking like the kind of one-two punch a team can win with.

Add solid offensive efforts from Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers, and the Jets look poised to go deep.

What doesnt Yes, Adam Lowry is the teams actual shutdown forward.

But its not ideal that the team doesnt have someone worthy of that role in the top six.

The teams stars are better, no question (though still only passable), but it would be very helpful to have a defensively capable player at the top of the lineup.

Vilardi is an awkward fit there.

In the same vein, Cole Perfetti as the teams fifth-best offensive option is not ideal either.

Those are two problems a solid second-line center could fix in one fell swoop and that remains Winnipegs biggest hole.

On the back end, the team may not have enough offensive punch after Morrissey.

Neal Pionk is better than his biggest detractors argue online, but as an offensive No.

2/3 he still comes in below what a Cup winner usually offers.

Hes the weakest link in the teams top four.

Los Angeles Kings What works If you were surprised to see the Kings this high, that makes two of us.

But having 40 percent of the Cup Checklist filled by players that are ideal or better is pretty eye-opening.

Only the Lightning and Panthers have more.

Mostly, that stems from the Kings being a defensive powerhouse.

Drew Doughty, Mikey Anderson and Vladislav Gavrikov is an embarrassment of defensive riches.

Same goes for Trevor Moore and Phillip Danaults defensive depth game, not to mention the defensive combo of Quinton Byfield and Anze Kopitar.

The Kings are built to shut teams down.

What makes the Kings extra intriguing this year, though, is the goalie behind all of that.

Darcy Kuemper has been lights-out over the last month or so and that makes the team an even bigger defensive force.

Their plus-37 Defensive Rating is right on par with the 2012 and 2014 champions.

Advertisement This franchise has a blueprint they already won with a decade ago.

Theyre following it to a tee this season.

What doesnt One of the reasons to be surprised is because there are still major questions about whether the Kings have the offense to hang with the best of the West.

Their two best players are Byfield and Adrian Kempe, and with all due respect to those two great players, theyre a shade below whats expected of Cup champions.

Byfield is the wild card there and looks to be ready to take over as The Guy, but that still feels like its a year away.

Elevating to that level in these playoffs though would be a game-changer the kind that could net the Kings the Cup.

Offense from the blue line is another sore spot.

Thats brought about by the teams top defender, Doughty, not measuring up offensively anymore and the teams prized prospect, Brandt Clarke, being mostly untrustworthy without the puck to play in the top four.

The Kings are elite defensively, but can they score enough when it matters? Colorado Avalanche What works Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are the top forward and defenseman duo in the league and for Colorado, everything flows after that.

It allows an easier time for the Avalanche to fill spots around them, though a lot of spots are filled by players strong in their own right.

Valeri Nichushkin, Brock Nelson and Logan OConnor fill out the depth nicely and the imminent return of Gabriel Landeskog could create a major spark.

While no one knows what Landeskog can do after so much time off, if he can just be average as hes penciled in here, he would make for a very valuable depth forward.

At his best, he was obviously much more than that, which would be a big plus.

On defense, Devon Toews is a strong shutdown force next to Makar.

In net, Mackenzie Blackwood was a savvy addition whos thrived in Colorado.

His presence could be the difference in a series.

What doesnt Ive been vocal in the past about Colorados defensive depth and this speaks to why.

I dont think Samuel Girard offers enough offensive spark behind Makar and Im not sure Josh Manson still has the defensive juice behind Toews.

In terms of support, that pair is lacking and has earned a 38 percent goal rate this season.

Thats far from ideal and a major sore spot in the lineup.

Advertisement The absence of Mikko Rantanen is also evident.

As great as Martin Necas has filled in offensively, hes no Rantanen.

His play-driving has been a pleasant surprise with the Avalanche as his skill set fits the teams system better, but his 28 points in 30 games with Colorado does show what the team has lost production-wise compared to Rantanens 64 in 49.

In that vein, the drop-off after MacKinnon to the teams next best weapon is fairly sizeable.

MacKinnon is one of the best players in the league, but the lack of a premier sidekick does hurt Colorado a little.

Thats felt on the defensive side of things as well with Artturi Lehkonen falling just shy of expectations as a shutdown forward.

Edmonton Oilers What works Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard.

Next question.

What doesnt Mattias Ekholm likely being out for the season is a big blow, which pushed the Oilers down a tier.

The Oilers are deep enough defensively after acquiring Jake Walman that the back end should still be a source of strength, just not to the degree it once was.

Ekholm is a much better shutdown option than Darnell Nurse, who would have been a luxury as the teams No.

3.

As the No.

2 and top defensive option, Nurse might be overwhelmed.

As much as I appreciate Brett Kulaks defensive game, hes not an ideal No.

4 on a contender.

The biggest issue, though, remains between the pipes.

The model holds Stuart Skinner in higher regard than it should thanks to being a strong netminder during the 2022-23 and 2023-24 regular seasons.

But he took a major step back this year and has had his share of playoff troubles.

Losing a key defensive piece in front of Skinner doesnt help either.

If everyone plays their part and that includes Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins bouncing back to their expected rates here, which is no guarantee the Oilers still have a strong enough roster.

The offensive brilliance of McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard gives Edmonton a lot of leeway elsewhere and they do check a lot of boxes, even if its to the bare minimum threshold.

But this team cut too many corners last summer and it shows.

Without Ekholm the Oilers look vulnerable.

They may not have the overall depth to survive a blow that big.

Vegas Golden Knights What works While no team checks every box, Vegas is right there with Florida.

William Karlsson is good enough defensively to make up for lesser offensive contributions.

This is a really strong team with few, if any, holes where it matters.

Shea Theodore is the teams best defenseman and leads a strong top four of Noah Hanifin, Alex Pietrangelo (whose offense makes up for weaker defense in his category) and Brayden McNabb.

The emergence of Pavel Dorofeyev has been a blessing as hes more than adequately replaced Jonathan Marchessaults scoring.

Theres strong forward depth behind him with Ivan Barbashev, Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith.

Advertisement Vegas looks ready for another championship.

What doesnt With only two ideal checkmarks, Vegas falls way off the mark from the teams above.

Vegas is one of five teams who hit the ideal mark 13 percent or less and the other four are in the bottom tier.

Everyone in the top three tiers has at least two more ideal fits and many have more.

So while its nice that Vegas has checked a lot of boxes, other contenders have done so more emphatically.

If hockey is a strong-link game, the other contenders have stronger links than Vegas and that could simply be the difference.

That means what itll take to win is everyone elevating their game and going the extra mile.

Thats what Vegas got out of its roster in 2023, and knowing that may be enough to offer hope.

It wont be easy to pull off again, but this team does know how to win.

Carolina Hurricanes What works Defensively, the Hurricanes have a one-two punch thats tough to beat.

Jaccob Slavin is one of the leagues best and grades out really well next to other franchise defenders.

Up front, Seth Jarvis looks like the next Mark Stone and already looks like Carolinas most valuable player.

Further down the lineup, both Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook continue to be premier shutdown forces making the Hurricanes a tough team to score on.

The Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov duo is pretty solid too.

Offensively, Shayne Gostisbehere brings a lot of juice from the backend while Logan Stankoven is fine as a depth player for now.

It should also be noted that there are a lot of players not included in the Cup Checklist and they matter too.

L0oking at that group alone, Carolina is among the strongest of any postseason team.

What doesnt Same as always: a lack of stars.

Mikko Rantanen works as a star forward.

Martin Necas would too.

Andrei Svechnikov has not elevated his offensive game to that level yet and currently looks miscast.

Maybe hell get there one day, just not today.

Advertisement With Rantanen or Necas around, Svechnikov would fit better as a scoring forward, Jackson Blake would fit better as a support forward and Jordan Martinook would fit better as a depth forward.

Instead, the offensive expectations become potentially more than those players can handle and its not like they have an elite offensive duo to lean on in Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis either.

With Slavin not being an offensively-minded player either, it becomes a question of whether this team has the offensive game-breakers to go the distance.

The usual.

Minnesota Wild What works Kirill Kaprizov is a superstar.

What he showed in the seasons first half as a potential MVP favourite only confirmed that and hes an ideal franchise forward.

That says a lot.

Joel Eriksson Ek is a sturdy shudown forward while Jonas Brodin offers the same piece of mind on the backend.

As mild as the Wild have been this season, its important to remember how much of the season they played without those three core pieces.

Theyre a different team with those guys in the lineup.

Down the line, Marcus Foligno has bounced back nicely this season and is back to being a key defensive piece.

Couple that with the emergence of Marco Rossi and Minnesotas forward depth looks a lot better than expected at the start of the season.

What doesnt The Wild do not have enough offense from the blue line.

Spurgeon isnt built that way as the teams best defenseman and Brock Faber whose numbers have really fallen off in the second half looks over-extended in that role as well.

This is a big part of what makes the Wild such an offensively anemic hockey team.

Can Zeev Buium, who scored 48 points in 41 games in college, be the answer to that problem? It may be unfair to put those expectations on someone who was in an Econ 101 class last week, but Buium looks pretty special.

For the Wild to go far this season, hell need to be that right out of the gate.

Considering he was scratched in their final game, though, Wild fans shouldnt hold their breath.

Minnesotas other Achilles heel is in net.

Filip Gustavsson was a great story to start, but his game has faltered since and has been propped up by a strong defense in front of him.

By GSAx he ranked 25th this season.

Couple with his disasturous 2023-24 season and the model views him as the weakest goalie at the playoffs.

The only Cup winner he surpasses over the last 15 seasons is Antti Niemi in 2010.

The Wild are strong enough to make him look good, but it comes at an offensive cost.

That lack of balance may be what keeps them from going far.

Washington Capitals What works Whatever theyve done this season.

While the projected values above may not look great, theyre born of uncertainty.

There have been a lot of players having breakthrough or bounce-back years the Capitals only need that to continue for 25 more games.

Heres the list of just 2024-25 ratings per 82 games for relevant players, and how that would grade out by the Cup Checklist.

Advertisement Pierre-Luc Dubois: +10.7/+3.4/+14.1 Passable Alex Ovechkin: +14.2 Off.

Rtg Ideal John Carlson: +12.0/+1.3/+13.3 Solid Tom Wilson: +10.0/+2.0/+12.0 Solid Jakob Chychrun: +6.2 Off.

Rtg Ideal Aliaksei Protas: +9.9/+1.9/+11.8 Luxury Connor McMichael: +8.5 Off.

Rtg Luxury Thats a lot of players who the model believes have played well enough to move up a tier (or two) if they can keep it up.

And that doesnt even include Logan Thompson, who was one of the leagues best goalies this season.

Beyond that, the support and depth cores look strong enough as is.

The Capitals retool has been wildly successful and it shows most there.

That group of eight is championship-caliber with or without regression.

What doesnt Its the top five where the biggest questions lie, namely with the most important forwards.

Can Dubois and Wilson really be the focal point of a championship team? There is zero question that theyve been good enough this year to be one of the leagues very best shutdown lines.

The question is whether it continues going forward given their lack of history playing at such a high level.

Same goes for Ovechkins superhuman scoring at his age and Carlsons late-career renaissance.

Its a question of sustainability which fans understandably hate, but that doesnt make it any less fair.

Its more than possible the model is wrong here and is too slow to pick up on Washingtons dominant shutdown duo and the vintage play of the teams veterans.

But its stubbornness should at least create pause now that the top guys are about to match up against the leagues absolute best teams.

Washington has the depth to mitigate that, but it is very rare for a Stanley Cup-winning teams core group to grade out this low.

At the very least, the teams top guys are passable.

Maybe thats enough.

Ottawa Senators What works Linus Ullmark was a fantastic get for the Senators and proved his worth in the second half.

Combine that with a shutdown pair of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub and Ottawas defensive backbone looks strong.

The depth core augmented by the acquisition of Dylan Cozens looks solid, and Thomas Chabot has been a great offensive piece from the backend.

Advertisement What doesnt This is Ottawas first year making the playoffs in this era so theres still plenty of time for the Senators to get where they need to.

The main concern at the moment is whether the top end has enough offensive juice especially after a down year for Brady Tkachuk.

He and Tim Stutzle are passable, but even then theyre only a big two.

Most Cup contenders have a big three or even four up front.

Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto and Dylan Cozens dont inspire enough confidence offensively at the moment to be named in the same breath as Tkachuk and Stutzle.

Not on a serious contender.

In order for Ottawa to take the next step, Tkachuk and Stutzle need to elevate a little bit more, but they also need immediate help behind them.

New Jersey Devils What works Its difficult to fully judge the Devils without Jack Hughes, but it is promising that the teams elite core still looks capable.

Nico Hischier sliding in seamlessly as a franchise forward is not something many teams can boast and is one reason why theres so much optimism surrounding New Jerseys future.

Jesper Bratt is a star, Dougie Hamilton remains an offensive force, Timo Meier drives play, and Jacob Markstrom is a strong starter.

The top of the lineup still looks great.

Some other pieces also standout, namely Johnathan Kovaecevic as a secondary defensive driver and newcomer Cody Glass as a defensive depth forward.

What doesnt With Hughes, a lot of things fall into place more naturally.

Hed grade out as an ideal franchise forward while Hischier would be an ideal shutdown forward.

That would push Timo Meier, Stefan Noesen and Dawson Mercer down all into more appropriate spots on the team.

Unfortunately, Hughes isnt playing which means a weak support core that leaves the teams immediate depth wanting.

Noesen is not a good enough scorer to be the teams fourth option and Mercer hasnt shown enough offensively yet to be a difference-maker.

Its not good enough.

The Devils are one of just two teams without an ideal fit somewhere on the list.

There is also the question of Hamiltons defense.

His minus-3.1 Defensive Rating would be the worst of any No.

1 defender to win the Cup.

Thats a problem that needs to be addressed.

Advertisement St.

Louis Blues What works The biggest standout under Jim Montgomery has been the teams improved defensive game and that shows with Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Colton Parayko being sources of defensive strength.

Jordan Binnington remains a solid goaltender as well.

Young players like Jimmy Snuggerud and Zachary Bolduc beef up the teams depth.

There are a lot of solid pieces here, most of whom are young enough to offer the Blues a bright future.

What doesnt Almost every piece is not great enough and thats the concern with this teams ceiling especially offensively.

Robert Thomas, with the way hes played over the last month, carries high hopes, but the team needs much more around him.

Can Jordan Kyrou take his game up a notch? Can Pavel Buchnevich bounce back? Can Holloway keep up his torrid pace under Montgomery (and return in time from injury)? Can Snuggerud (or Dalibor Dvorsky) be legitimate difference-makers? Can Broberg emerge as capable enough offensively to become a true No.

1? Those are the questions facing the Blues now and going forward.

The talent is there for this team to answer them in the playoffs, but for now theres just a bit too much uncertainty.

At the very least, though, the fact they have actual players that have the potential to answer those questions is a big step up from where the team was to start the season.

With how theyve played under Montgomery, it wouldnt be a shock to see some exceptions prove otherwise in the postseason.

Montreal Canadiens What works Lane Hutson is a game-changer already.

Hes an offensively solid franchise defenseman on a Cup contender an incredible feat for a rookie.

His defensive game has improved, but is still questionable overall.

Solving that is the next step in his progress.

The Canadiens have a lot of passable pieces throughout and in net, Sam Montembeault is more than good enough to steal games.

What doesnt Montreal wasnt expected to make it this far; to do so is already a success.

It should be no surprise the Canadiens are the weakest team in the playoffs and it shows by how many exceptions would have to be made to view them as a true contender.

Most of those exceptions come on the defensive side of things: Hutson as a franchise defenseman, Guhle as a shutdown defender, and the lack of a positive defensive forward outside of Nick Suzuki.

Even Suzuki, as good as hes been over the last couple of months, falls just shy of whats needed as a teams No.

1 forward.

Advertisement Having said that there is a clear path to moving up.

That starts with Ivan Demidov (whose projections here are based on his superb KHL totals) becoming a franchise forward.

If that happens while Hutsons defensive game matures, everything falls into place.

Nick Suzuki would be an ideal shutdown forward, while Juraj Slafkovsky would face less pressure with an expectation as a scoring forward.

The Canadiens are very green and theres a lot of work to do, but the pieces are there.

Data via Evolving Hockey and Hockey Stat Cards (Top photo of Aleksander Barkov against the Tampa Bay Lightning: Joel Auerbach / Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6276669/2025/04/16/nhl-playoffs-contenders-stanley-cup-checklist/