Can the Rangers afford a $12 million goalie? Can they afford to let one walk?

Igor Shesterkin s next contract, whether with the New York Rangers or another NHL team, is going to be a big one.

The Athletic s Pierre LeBrun reported this week that New York is willing to pay more than $10.5 million annually , which would break the record for goalie average annual value on a deal.

Shesterkins camp clearly wants more, though, considering the sides havent reached a deal.

Two league sources have also indicated to The Athletic that talks will be put on hold until the end of the season if a deal isnt reached by the Oct.

9 opener.

Advertisement What Shesterkins value would be in unrestricted free agency is unclear.

It would depend on how he performs this season and which clubs are in the market, and there likely would be several considering his stature.

He has a Vezina Trophy and a .928 career save percentage in the playoffs.

If theres more than a couple teams (interested), then hes got the leverage, said one NHL agent who does not represent Shesterkin.

All this puts the Rangers and general manager Chris Drury in a difficult spot.

New York already has approximately $58.19 million committed to 2025-26 roster players, per PuckPedia , leaving $33.81 million of cap space, assuming the cap goes up to the expected $92 million.

That number is a bit misleading though.

Only 10 players are under contract for 2025-26, so Drury will have to fill around a dozen spots with that space.

The Rangers have made the Eastern Conference final two of the past three seasons.

This is their window, the same agent said.

They cant have this goalie walk out the door.

So how do the Rangers make a giant contract fit? Lets say the Rangers give Shesterkin a $12 million average annual value contract.

A potential Shesterkin deal could come in for a bit less or a bit more, but well put that as our estimate.

That leaves $21.81 million of cap space and still only 11 players under contract.

New York has two major restricted free agents next summer: Alexis Lafreniere and KAndre Miller , both of whom will have arbitration rights.

Lafreniere had a breakout 2023-24, scoring 28 goals and 57 points, almost all at even strength.

If he wants to extend long-term, he could command a pretty penny.

Evolving-Hockey currently projects the contract at $7.175 million if its for eight years, but that will go up if he has another strong season.

Lucas Raymond , a potential comparable, just signed an eight-year, $8.075 million AAV deal with the Red Wings .

Advertisement Miller wont command as much, but Evolving-Hockey projects around a $6 million AAV if he signs between five and seven years.

Another year of progress could boost his number, as well.

Kaapo Kakko , Will Cuylle , Matt Rempe , Adam Edstrom and Zac Jones will also be restricted free agents.

Plus Reilly Smith is an unrestricted free agent after the season, so the Rangers will either have to re-sign him or find a top-six replacement.

Ryan Lindgren and Jonathan Quick are also pending free agents.

The Rangers simply do not have enough cap space for all of them, even if Shesterkin doesnt double his AAV.

Theyd have to make sacrifices somewhere, be it by not tenuring some restricted free agents, trading their rights or trading roster players.

The obvious starting point is Jacob Trouba , who is on an $8 million AAV deal.

Though he has a no-trade list, the general consensus is he will be easier to trade next summer than this one.

He seemed to hint recently at knowing either his contract or another big one will be moved in 2025, saying, This will probably be the last crack for this core.

If New York is able to trade Troubas contract without retaining any money not a guarantee that would put the team at $29.81 million in cap space if Shesterkin is on a $12 million deal.

Lafreniere and Miller would take up a notable chunk of the remaining money, though Drury could try to sign them to bridge deals.

That could be more expensive long-term but give the Rangers flexibility during the coming years of their window.

Lets then say Lafreniere and Miller sign for a combined $12 million, which would likely mean at least one is on a bridge deal.

That leaves $17.81 million in room but only 12 players signed.

Drury would have to use that money to: Gaming this out further, say the Rangers replace Trouba, either replace Lindgren or re-sign him, and re-sign Jones for a combined $8.4 million, then get a backup goalie for $800,000.

There are a lot of possibilities for a Smith replacement or re-signing the team could sign a cheap veteran or use someone on an entry-level contract in that spot but lets pencil that in for $3 million.

That comes out to $12.2 million for five players, leaving $5.61 million of cap space with only 17 players signed.

Drury would then still have RFA forwards to take care of.

Advertisement The money gets tight fast.

Plus, this would also come with top-six forwards Chris Kreider , Mika Zibanejad , Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck all getting a year older.

Theres urgency to win quickly, but does that look more like a championship roster than the current one? The other option, of course, is letting Shesterkin walk, which would leave the Rangers with more cap flexibility for skaters but a glaring hole in the net.

It would be a massive risk during a contention window, especially considering how big of a role Shesterkin played in the clubs recent playoff run.

New York very well could have lost in the second round to the Carolina Hurricanes had it gotten lesser goaltending.

Granted, other clubs have won the Stanley Cup with lesser goalies recently the Vegas Golden Knights with Adin Hill in 2023 and Colorado Avalanche with Darcy Kuemper in 2022 but those clubs had deeper groups of skaters than the current iteration of the Rangers.

If the Rangers are going to win in the next few years, its hard to see it happening without Shesterkin in the crease.

Should the Rangers and Shesterkin agree to a deal, the organization will likely need to get contributions from up-and-coming players on entry-level deals.

That could assuage the loss of players to the cap crunch.

Could Gabe Perreault emerge as a top-six player? Will Brennan Othmann be a middle-six contributor? Can a few of Brett Berard , Adam Edstrom and Adam Sykora plug in other forward holes on the roster? If the team hits on a few of those, losing someone like Smith or Kakko could be more palatable.

But its not a guarantee.

Paying such a high cost for a goalie means less certainty and more chance, and that just might be the risk the Rangers have to take.

(Photo: Luke Hales / Getty Images).

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