2025 NHL playoff preview: Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens

By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille Be honest: Are you as excited about this series as you were a couple weeks ago, when Alex Ovechkin was sprinting toward Wayne Gretzky and the Montreal Canadiens were on a six-game win streak? If the answer is no, thats OK.

Montreal nearly backed its way into the playoffs and the Washington Capitals hit a rough patch of their own.

Still, this matchup brings a whole bunch of juice the most prolific goal scorer of all time, the Easts top team and the return of postseason hockey to one of the sports true epicenters.

Advertisement The odds Five words many Capitals fans dread: The Model likes the Capitals.

As wrong as it has been regarding the Capitals for many years now (and there have been a lot of wrong instances), it wouldve been extremely difficult not to favor the Capitals against the Canadiens.

The Capitals had a fantastic season where everything went right, while the Canadiens look every bit like a wildcard team fresh off a rebuild.

Washington should have no trouble dispatching Montreal here with five games being the most likely result.

Of course, its impossible not to see a mismatched series between the Capitals and Canadiens and not think about 2010.

While this model did not exist 15 years ago, running it for that series produces a similar result: Washington as a 70 percent favorite.

Will Washington avenge its ghosts with a dominant series win over Montreal, or will history repeat itself with another upset? The numbers With a minus-10 Net rating, the Canadiens are the weakest team in the playoff picture.

The Capitals were far from perfect defensively, but their goaltending was top-notch with just 2.02 GA/60 at five-on-five.

The offense was buzzing, too.

The Caps shooting percentage was high, but their 2.79 xGF/60 added some oomph below the surface.

Washingtons offense hasnt faded since the 4 Nations break, but there is one major difference: the goaltending.

Over the last 27 games, the Capitals have allowed 3.08 GA/60 and earned a collective 0.875 save percentage.

Montreals goalies have a combined 0.921 save percentage over that same stretch of play, which went a long way in the teams push for the playoffs.

There have been some improvements in front of the blue paint at five-on-five since the break, but this team still doesnt control play as well as the Capitals have this season.

Advertisement The Caps come into this matchup with a special-teams edge, too.

Goaltending helps equalize the penalty kill, especially down the stretch, but Washingtons expected goal suppression is stronger.

The Capitals power play hasnt been as dangerous as years past, but they should have some openings in this series with Montreals defense in mind.

The Canadiens shot quality is similar to Washingtons since 4 Nations, but dont have the scoring to show for it.

The big question Can Montreal handle the heat defensively? Montreals struggles in its own zone have been well-documented all year even as this team pushed for a playoff seed down the stretch.

Think back to the game against Detroit on April 8 when the Canadiens gave up 4.23 expected goals to one of the worst offensive teams in the league.

Montreal won that game thanks to a herculean effort from Sam Montembeault, but that isnt the most sustainable strategy for long-term success.

Across 82 games, Montreal gave up 2.89 xGA/60 at five-on-five, a mark that was only better than two teams: the Ducks and the Sharks.

As much as this team improved since 4 Nations, defense remained an issue down the stretch.

The goaltenders masked those deficiencies better out of the break with 14.3 goals saved above expected in the last 26 games, which was second only to the Jets.

Diving into the penalty kill opens another can of worms, considering how much the team struggled below the surface in short-handed situations.

Goaltending, again, was the difference-maker.

But realistically, Montembeault can only stop the bleeding so much when facing such a demanding workload.

That proved to be the case in late March, when the team allowed eight power-play goals in nine games.

The problem in Montreal isnt necessarily that opponents are gaining the offensive zone with speed and generating a high rate of chances in transition.

Its that this team gets pinned in its own zone for extended stretches and cant break out, especially at even strength.

The defenders struggle to retrieve pucks in their own end to regain possession and make a number of mistakes in the process.

The Canadiens 13.3 botched retrievals/60, according to AllThreeZones, is the worst in the league at five-on-five.

In some ways, its a sign of a young team.

But is the personnel the only problem, or is it the system? The answer is somewhere in the middle a potential chicken and egg scenario.

There are only three players on this roster with a positive Defensive Rating: Nick Suzuki, Kaiden Guhle, and Alex Carrier.

Personnel is likely an issue, but its possible that the teams hybrid defensive zone system doesnt help, making it more difficult for other players to post positive defensive results.

It creates confusion, especially when players arent decisive enough to know when to pressure the puck.

Any mistakes in the decision-making process can lead to a long shift stuck in the defensive zone.

Advertisement Tie the two together, and the Canadiens struggles make even more sense.

That system can be tricky for up-and-coming players who are only just learning to defend at this level.

That was the case for Lane Hutson earlier this year.

His xGA/60 improved from 3.12 to 2.50 after 4 Nations.

Moving him away from David Savard and alongside Guhle and Jayden Struble helped, so did a growing awareness from playing more.

If defense wins championships, the Canadiens may be in trouble.

The Capitals have a deep offense that will challenge Montreal.

But this experience, no matter what happens from here, will be a lesson on what needs to improve in the long run.

The X-factor Can Ivan Demidov and Ryan Leonard be immediate difference-makers? The first round is dotted with rookies who recently arrived in the NHL and figure to have a shot at impacting their teams.

Ivan Demidov, the fifth pick in 2024 who played two games with Montreal after leaving the KHL, and Ryan Leonard, who finished another 30-goal season with Boston College in March, are at the top of the list.

Demidov rates higher here because of the season he had with SKA St.

Petersburg; 19 goals and 30 assists in 60 professional games as a 19-year-old counts for plenty.

Matvei Michkov projected similarly ahead of this season and generally lived up to it, putting up 26 goals and 37 assists as a rookie for Philadelphia.

Less tangibly, Montreal needed a player like Demidov.

His star potential is clear.

Leonard rates lower because of his nine largely uneventful games with Washington; his only point is an empty-net goal.

The Caps are winning his minutes from an expected goal standpoint, though (56.7), and hes fourth on the team since April 1 with nearly 8 shots per 60 minutes.

If he keeps getting third-line minutes, hell continue to have a chance at making his mark.

The rosters Against the Easts other contenders, there might be more questions about Washingtons roster.

Against a Canadiens team thats just happy to be here, its clear the Capitals currently have the better roster.

That starts from the net out.

While Logan Thompson fell off a bit before being sidelined with injury, he still proved this season that he has what it takes to be a high-end starter.

Thompson finished eighth in GSAx this season saving 24.9 in 43 games.

Not bad.

And if hes not ready, Charlie Lindgren is a capable Plan B.

One of Washingtons biggest strengths is whats immediately in front of its netminders: one of the leagues deepest blue lines.

From 1-to-6, the Capitals dont have a single weak link.

Martin Fehervarys minus-0.7 Net Rating is still No.

4 caliber a luxury that no other playoff team has.

The Capitals carry five above-average defenders, giving them three solid mix-and-match pairs without much fear of who theyll be up against.

That quiet comfort starts with John Carlson, the veteran leader who had a renaissance season, scoring 51 points while posting career-best play-driving numbers.

At 35, Carlson finished an impressive 12th among all defensemen in Net Rating.

It goes beyond him, though, with a group that can handle any situation.

Jakob Chychrun has found a forever home and adds offensive punch.

Rasmus Sandin is a smooth-skating puck-mover who can hold his own in the top four.

Matt Roy has added a defensive layer to the mix.

And Trevor van Riemsdyk should be more well-regarded for his off-puck work.

This is a really talented group, one that lands just outside the leagues top five.

Advertisement All of that is a huge and underrated difference from last years playoff Capitals whose most-used defensemen included Alex Alexeyev, Dylan McIlrath and Lucas Johansen.

Thats allowed the forward group to play with the puck more in better situations.

And it shows with some career years across the board.

There are questions of sustainability, sure, but even with a best-guess estimate of true talent, the Capitals have a solid big four of top-line contributors.

Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson have been a shutdown force, earning 57 percent of the expected goals together.

Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin have been dynamite offensively, scoring 3.8 goals per 60 together.

Two budding young stars are the wildcards in that equation: Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael.

Both took significant strides this season, fitting extremely well with the established veteran duos.

Its Protas whos the most intriguing, a rare combination of size, speed, and skill.

Hes going to be a problem for years to come and it feels like these playoffs will be where he takes his game even further.

Washingtons depth beyond the top six doesnt have a lot of offensive upside (barring a Leonard breakout), but it makes up for that with its defensive game.

Nic Dowd is one of the better defensive depth centers in the league, while Andrew Mangiapane drives play well to make up for his decreased scoring.

Nick Suzuki has proven hes a two-way star and has been a monster since the 4 Nations break.

While his projected Net Rating isnt high, he played like a top 15 center this year, landing just a shade above Dubois.

Between Suzuki and Lane Hutson, the Canadiens have an elite one-two punch at the two most important positions better than what the Capitals have.

If they can keep their play up, they can make things interesting as the best players on the ice.

Cole Caufield, fresh off a 37-goal season, can help with that, too.

The rest? Theyre just a little too green to be impactful in their current roles.

Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov are wildcards with real offensive flair.

Given their age, a quick and unexpected pop is possible its just hard to predict it until we see it.

They give the forward group optimism, but their inexperience will more than likely be a disadvantage.

Advertisement It thins out really quickly after them with a real lack of offense outside of Patrik Laines power-play ability.

While thats also true of the Capitals, the Canadiens forwards dont have the defensive might to make up for it.

The back end could have some juice, but three of Montreals top four defenders mostly just grade out as one-dimensionally average.

Whatever Mike Matheson adds offensively, he gives back the other way.

Whatever Kaiden Guhle and Alex Carrier provide defensively, they cant create the other way.

And the third pair looks easily exploitable.

Montreal will one day have an elite blue line led by Hutson though his size in a playoff atmosphere is also a question mark but it just doesnt look like its there yet.

The ace up Montreals sleeve is Sam Montembeault.

Those who still have nightmares about Jaroslav Halak will take no solace in the knowledge that Montembeault finished third in GSAx this season with 30.8 goals saved.

Over the last three seasons, only four goalies have saved more goals than Montembeault: Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin, Linus Ullmark and Igor Shesterkin.

Hes the fourth-highest rated goalie in these playoffs for good reason.

Whatever defensive deficiencies the Canadiens have and they do have a lot of them Montembeault covers them up well.

If the team can dig in and hold their own without the puck, Montembeault can genuinely steal this series.

The key matchup Alex Ovechkin vs.

Lane Hutson How much time the 40-year-old legend and the rookie defensemen spend on the ice together remains to be seen.

Theyre cut from the same cloth, though, in one important way: theyre not just productive players they electrify the crowd.

In the playoffs, that counts for something.

In Ovechkins case, its not just that he set the all-time goal record.

Its that he did it in style, finishing on a hot streak that was equal parts surprising and inevitable.

Hes spent his entire career coming up big in big spots, and he spent the last couple of months proving that he still has the juice.

Hutson, like Ovechkin two decades ago, arrived in the NHL as a fully formed highlight machine.

Sixty-six points as a D-man probably wouldve been enough to win him the Calder Trophy; the fact that he got there in style helped make him a lock.

The bottom line The Canadiens and Capitals got to Round 1 in very different ways.

Washington revitalized its aging core and locked up a playoff seed early.

Montreals next wave clinched at the last second.

But that doesnt matter all that does is that these two teams are here and only four wins separates one from advancing.

References How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder (Top photo of Lane Hutson and Alex Ovechkin: Patrick Smith / Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.