NHL playoff predictions 2025: First-round winners, dark horse and Stanley Cup champion

By Sean Gentille , Shayna Goldman , Jesse Granger , James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff Can Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers make it back to the Stanley Cup Final and finish the job, or are they in danger of an early exit? Are the Florida Panthers in line to repeat, or will one of the other Atlantic Division heavyweights pick them off? Whats in store for the regular-season beasts: the Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals? Advertisement With the postseason opening Saturday, The Athletic posed these questions and more to its NHL staff.

Here are their picks to win each first-round series, the Eastern and Western Conferences, the Conn Smythe and the Stanley Cup, as well as picks for the most overrated team and a playoff dark horse.

To analyze and critique the picks, weve brought in senior writers Sean Gentille, James Mirtle and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger.

Figures are rounded.

Eastern Conference Gentille: As always, the only thing that gave me pause before picking the Maple Leafs is the fact that theyre the Maple Leafs.

Goldman: Not surprised to see Toronto get votes for five or six games, but if this series goes seven, how do you not pick the Pesky Sens? Granger: When have the Leafs ever done anything the easy way? Im with the 20.6 percent who see the Battle for Ontario going seven games, but I think this version of the Maple Leafs with a bigger emphasis on defense and strong goaltending gets the win.

Lazerus: I picked Ottawa.

Because, lets be honest, it would be very funny.

Mirtle: This will be the 11th Leafs series Ive covered.

They have won once.

Im picking them to win here, but Ottawas been a top-10 team in the second half.

Its not going to be a short, easy series.

Gentille: I picked the Lightning too, but are we sure the pendulum hasnt swung just a liiiittle too far in the other direction? Thats a big-time gap.

Goldman: This series should be a lot closer than our votes project.

At least the majority of us think it will go the distance.

Granger: I thought I was going against the grain by pushing my chips all in on Tampa Bay.

Turns out, everyone had the same idea.

And while we almost all picked Tampa here, we almost all have it going to at least six games, which feels right.

Advertisement Lazerus: Oddly enough, the Lightning have become the new Aleksander Barkov: the underrated choice that everybody makes.

This feels like a trap.

Mirtle: Florida is pretty beat up and has been losing a lot lately.

The Panthers look like a team thats played too much hockey the past two years, so well see.

Gentille: If the Caps goaltending self-destructs, all bets are off.

They were better down the stretch than their record suggests, though.

Dont overthink this one.

Granger: Logan Thompson is exactly where he wants to be.

He thrives on doubt, and with the way Washington ended the season and his status up in the air, I think well see him at his best.

Lazerus: I just hope we get more than two measly games at the Bell Centre in the playoffs.

What a year that joint is having, between the 4 Nations and the playoff push.

Montreal might not win the Cup, but Montrealers get the belt.

Gentille: I just dont see how the Devils get enough goals to beat Carolina four times.

Goldman: This series would look a lot different with a healthy Jack Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler.

Granger: These teams split the season series 2-2, but they havent played since the turn of the calendar, and the Devils injuries change things quite a bit.

Lazerus: The Devils without Jack Hughes are like a snow day with e-learning.

Takes all the fun out of it.

Mirtle: Carolina might not have Mikko Rantanen, but Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven and Mark Jankowski have given it some ridiculous depth up front.

Thatll be the differentiator.

Western Conference Gentille: Picking the Blues to take a game or two is the right call, but I do think this is where it ends for them.

Goldman: Of all of the potential wild-card upsets, I thought this one would have had a little more support.

Granger: Connor Hellebuycks career .928 save percentage against St.

Louis is his highest against any divisional opponent.

I think hell quiet the narrative around his playoff performance quickly in this series.

Advertisement Lazerus: An .870 save percentage last year and an .886 save percentage the year before that.

Thats not a narrative, Jesse, thats cold, hard math.

Hellebuyck should win the Hart Trophy this year, but he has an awful lot to prove in this series.

Mirtle: I know Winnipeg won the Presidents Trophy, but since when does that ever pan out!? Should be an interesting rematch of 4 Nations goaltenders, though.

Gentille: Well see how this one plays out, but injuries have stolen what seemed to be an all-timer.

Goldman: If the Stars have a chance in this series, its going to be in six or seven the longer this series goes, the better chance of Heiskanen returning.

Granger: Dallas key injuries obviously swung things in Colorados favor, but dont count out the Stars.

They have one of the deepest rosters in the league, and Pete DeBoer could have a coaching edge.

Hes 3-0 against Jared Bednar in the playoffs and has bested him with three teams.

Lazerus: The Avalanche addressed some of their needs at the deadline, for sure.

But they still cant match Dallas depth, even without Jason Robertson.

Im still leaning Stars Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn are currently their third line but its a toss-up.

Gentille: No series had a bigger split than this one.

As it should be.

Minnesota is outmatched, even with Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek back in the picture.

Goldman: Its hard to see how the Golden Knights lose in Round 1 in two straight years.

The Wild know a thing or two about that.

Granger: Vegas center depth should be a major matchup problem in this series.

Jack Eichel is having a career year, and Tomas Hertl, William Karlsson, Nicolas Roy and Brett Howden complete a formidable group.

Advertisement Lazerus: Poor Wild fans.

Every year, such hope.

Every year, such mediocrity.

Gentille: And here I thought I was being a rebel.

Goldman: If the Kings are going to get past their demons in Edmonton, this is the year to do it.

Granger: The Oilers seem more vulnerable than in years past with all the late-season injuries.

More importantly, this is the best the Kings have looked in years.

The step Quinton Byfield took in his game this season makes this team feel so much more dangerous.

Lazerus: This feels a little like Tampa, where maybe were all leaning too hard in the contrarian direction.

But its really hard to feel good about Edmontons goaltending situation.

Mirtle: If regular-season Darcy Kuemper was the real deal, thats a massive advantage here.

L.A.

was so strong defensively all year, too, so well see if that holds up against Edmontons two-headed monster that is McDavid and Draisaitl.

Dark horse to win the Cup Note: Must have +2,000 or worse odds to win Cup, with odds per BetMGM .

Gentille: Easiest call on the board.

Still wouldnt put actual money on any of them, though.

Goldman: The Blues are a fun pick, with all the similarities to their 2019 turnaround.

Wouldnt that be something if history repeated itself? Granger: Continuing what I wrote above, I love the Kings makeup.

Their center strength and defensive structure and Kuempers recent form make them an easy choice for me.

Lazerus: None of these teams is going to win the Stanley Cup.

But Im sure our friends at BetMGM will be happy to have your money.

Mirtle: Dont listen to Old Man Laz St.

Louis is worth it given those odds and how wide open the league is this year.

Favorite that will be the biggest disappointment Note: Must have +1,000 or better odds to win the Cup, with odds per BetMGM .

Gentille: Second-easiest call on the board.

Dallas, minus Heiskanen and Robertson, is impossible to pick.

Goldman: All of this Oilers doubt could unlock another level of playoff McDavid.

Lazerus: DIG THE (BLEEP) IN.

RIGHT THE (BLEEP) NOW .

Ill never doubt Draisaitl after what he did a few years ago on one leg, and Ill never doubt McDavid after what he did last year.

Bet against those guys at your own peril.

Advertisement Granger: The Panthers are the most likely team to lose in the first round, but thats purely based on opponent.

Mirtle: I went with Edmonton, but none of these outside of Carolina would surprise me this year.

Eastern Conference champion Gentille: Guess everyone loves Andrei Vasilevskiy and hates the Metro Division.

Lazerus: More like the Meh-tro, amirite? Granger: I fit both of these categories.

Well, I dont hate the Metro, but I expect the Eastern champ to come out of the Atlantic.

Goldman: These picks are going to age well when the Senators upset the Leafs in Round 1.

Just kidding.

Kind of.

Mirtle: I guess the staff have been into the models Leafs Kool-Aid a bit.

Western Conference champion Goldman: The Robertson injury plus a playoff start without Heiskanen has crushed a lot of confidence in the Stars and likely sent votes to Colorado and Vegas instead.

Maybe were all sleeping on Winnipeg a bit, but its path would take it through the Avs.

Lazerus: I might look foolish in a few days (its my natural state), but I think everyones still sleeping too hard on the Stars.

Jake Oettinger vs.

Mackenzie Blackwood, whos never played in a playoff game? Come on, guys.

Dont overthink this.

Gentille: I went Vegas here, but you could easily sell me on any of the top three.

Theres no way Winnipeg should have the same odds as Dallas.

Granger: Were not giving enough respect to the team thats clearly been the best team in the West all season: Winnipeg.

Stanley Cup champion Goldman: As someone who picked a Colorado-Tampa Bay Final early in the season, its nice to see everyone has a similar vision.

Naturally, its a matchup of two teams that have an early best-on-best in Round 1.

What could go wrong? Gentille: In October, I went with the Stars.

Oops! But yeah, I like Vegas here, too.

No glaring holes.

Advertisement Lazerus: Still picking the Stars.

Ive picked them for 147 consecutive years, and Im going to be right eventually.

Granger: Tampa Bay has looked like such a complete team, and Vasilevskiy is back to his elite form.

Its so hard to pick against that combination right now.

Mirtle: My Lightning-Avs final appears wholly unoriginal.

Is it too late to make changes, editor? Conn Smythe winner Gentille: Last years McDavid-related hiccup aside, the leading scorer for the Cup champion tends to take the Conn Smythe.

For me, thats Eichel.

Goldman: Just a group of MVP-caliber players at the top of this list who know how to amp it up in the playoffs.

Boring answer, but any of those names would make a lot of sense.

Granger: I love seeing three goalies getting votes in this poll, and I agree with the three names as the most likely to win a Conn Smythe.

Lazerus: Respect for the Sam Reinhart pick.

Hes a real one.

Mirtle: Respect for the Mitch Marner pick.

(It wasnt me!) Goodbye, narratives ...

hello, free agency.

(Top photo of Matthew Tkachuk: Sam Navarro / Imagn Images).

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