2025 NHL playoff preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators

By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman Ladies and gentlemen, for the first time in over two decades: the Battle of Ontario.

The relatively dormant rivalry has always had a spark, despite the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators competitive trajectories over the past 20 years.

Geographical proximity will have that effect.

Now that theyre on the same competitive wavelength, that spark is about to ignite.

This series has potential to be a hate-filled, five-alarm fire.

Advertisement On one side, a perennial playoff disappointment aiming to prove they have what it takes to go the distance.

On the other side, a playoff newcomer aiming to prove they belong after annual regular season disappointments.

Let the flames begin.

The odds Usually, Torontos first-round matchup is a coin-flip series and one that usually lands heads when the Leafs call tails.

But not this time.

This time, the Leafs finally won their division, earning the right to face a wild-card team where their chances to win are much higher.

Their reward: a Senators team considerably weaker than the Tampa Bay Lightning or Florida Panthers.

The Leafs are heavy favorites as a result, winning the series in nearly three-quarters of projections.

Of course, this is the Leafs were talking about.

Theyve been a heavy favorite before and that series didnt end well for them when they blew a 3-1 lead to the Canadiens back in 2021.

For the Leafs, the odds dont matter because theyll be battling themselves as much as theyll be battling the Senators.

If this year is actually going to be different, this is the first test for Toronto: defeat a beatable opponent.

The numbers Each team hovered around break-even in expected goals this season at five-on-five, but Toronto has better actual results to match.

The Leafs have much more firepower and turn their chances into goals at a higher rate.

That was a weakness in Ottawa for much of the season.

The team only mustered 2.09 goals/60 across the season, which ranks fifth to last in the league.

But the Senators scoring since the 4 Nations is a promising uptick heading into Round 1.

Defensively, the Maple Leafs allow a bit more back in terms of shot volume and quality, but their goaltending has stood tall.

The special teams battle slants toward Toronto, too.

Power-play scoring burned the Maple Leafs last postseason, but their five-forward unit is coming into the playoffs hot.

Since the 4 Nations, they have been one of the most dangerous teams on the advantage, while the Senators PK has had to rely on goaltending to mask some defensive deficiencies.

Advertisement If regular-season trends hold, the Senators could get more power-play opportunities.

Ottawa has led the league in drawn penalties in each of the last three seasons but needs to work on its finishing if it is going to gain momentum from those chances.

On paper, its clear that the Maple Leafs have the edge.

Ottawa has the worst Offensive Rating of the playoff field, and its Defensive Rating is half of Torontos.

But that hasnt mattered much in their regular season meetings the Senators swept the season series this year and could carry that disruptive momentum into Round 1.

The big question Will Torontos defensive upgrades flip the script? When Craig Berube replaced Sheldon Keefe last offseason, one widespread bit of logic was that the former St.

Louis Blues coach would help the Leafs dial in defensively.

Your mileage may vary on that; just how much of an issue team defense had been for Toronto is a fair debate, and Berubes last few seasons in St.

Louis featured a whole lot of leaky play.

In his final two full seasons with the Blues, they were 24th and 26th in expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five.

Not good.

An important bit of context, of course, is that the Blues defensive group had become deficient, and expecting any coach to spin it into gold was unrealistic.

When Berube led them to the Stanley Cup in 2018-19, they were an elite defensive team (No.

3 in expected goals against), and they kept that up for another season before age and roster attrition began to take hold.

Part of the credit for the Leafs defensive glow-up theyre third in actual goals against per 60 at five-on-five goes to him.

There are kudos to spread around, though.

Well start with Anthony Stolarz, whos given them truly high-end goaltending for the first time in a generation.

Or two.

Or three.

His .926 save percentage is the best on record for any Leaf goaltender with more than 20 starts since Johnny Bower in 1965-66, and his 31 goals saved above expected is the best since at least 2007-08.

Joseph Woll (.909 save percentage, 17.5 GSAx) isnt far behind.

Their play is the primary reason 2.53 expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five (16th) becomes 2.0 actual goals against per 60 at five-on-five (great).

Adding Chris Tanev, as expected, has been gigantic.

He came to Toronto with a well-earned reputation as the truly elite defensive defenseman they were lacking, and hes delivered; only three D-men in the league (Mikey Anderson, Vladislav Gavrikov and Philip Broberg) have higher Defensive Ratings than Tanev (plus-9.7).

Despite playing against better offensive competition than any other Leaf and starting more of his shifts in the zone than any other defenseman in the league, Toronto is winning his minutes 55-34.

Some of that has to do with the goaltending and finishing in expected goals, Toronto has an edge of about 48-45 but Tanev is the real deal, no matter what.

Advertisement Brandon Carlo, acquired from Boston at the trade deadline, has also brought something important to the table: real defensive depth and a reliable partner for Morgan Rielly.

When the two play together, Riellys on-ice expected goals percentage jumps from 42 to 57 percent.

Thats not a small sample size, either; theyve got 214:31 of ice time as a pair.

Toronto has won those minutes 12-8 and controlled nearly 60 percent of all high-danger chances.

That all sounds great on paper.

The Leafs, of course, have shown several times in recent history how quickly things can change.

Undeniably, though, theyre coming into the playoffs in a better spot in terms of goaltending and their top two pairs than weve typically seen.

The X-factor Is Playoff Brady ready to take his game to the next level? On paper, its been a down year for Brady Tkachuk.

He posted his lowest points per 60 (2.49) since 2020-21, owing mainly to a dip in effectiveness as a set-up man; his 0.69 primary assists per 60 are down nearly 0.5 from last season.

Of course, we know things are going about as well as they ever have for Ottawas captain.

Thats not just because of the postseason berth, either Tkachuk showed at the 4 Nations that hes capable of raising his game in truly high-leverage moments.

Many had assumed thatd be the case; Tkachuk gave them some degree of proof, posting the fourth-best Net Rating among American forwards, scoring three times and generally acting like a Grade-A, hard to play against force.

That runs in the family.

And just like Matthew Tkachuk used the 2023 postseason to push himself into a different stratosphere, his younger brother is faced with a similar task.

Hes got the player profile necessary to make it happen.

We know hes a rare combination of size and skill, and weve seen him produce at an even higher level than what he managed in the regular season.

Now its time to put it all together.

The rosters Torontos biggest advantage is the same as usual: The teams best forwards are extremely good.

Auston Matthews, in a down year, still finished with the leagues seventh-best Net Rating per 82, a plus-21.6 pace.

Few players can consistently earn 60 percent of actual goals at five-on-five the way he does, especially while soaking up the toughest minutes.

Though his finishing wasnt there this season, Matthews still created a similar volume of chances and made up for some of the production lost with more assists.

If Matthews floor is a 95-point pace with 60 percent of goals, thats better than almost everyone elses ceiling.

Advertisement Its also worth noting Matthews has picked up his game a lot in the new year after a slow start.

His 54 points in 42 games ranks fourth in the league.

On top of that, the Leafs also have two of the best wingers in hockey: Mitch Marner, a 200-foot player whos good for 100 points, and William Nylander, a dynamic game-breaker whos good for at least 40 goals.

Few teams can match that.

John Tavares having a renaissance season with 38 goals rounds out the core four.

The difference this time could be the emergence of Matthew Knies, a throwback power forward whos built for the playoffs.

Knies has taken his game to a new level this season, giving the teams top end considerably more punch than previous seasons.

He adds a different element to the core, one that could bring it alive.

All of that is a moot point though if the teams top players dont deliver.

Thats been an issue thats plagued them for most of their careers and will continue to be a talking point until proven otherwise.

Sure, all their projected values look nice and shiny now, but playing at that actual level in the postseason is a different story.

The reason for that is the rest of the forward group looks ill-equipped.

Depth scoring will be very hard to come by with the bottom six being mostly unable to drive much offense.

Its not ideal that they dont really move the needle defensively, either.

The defense group can mitigate that and looks sturdier than usual, even if there isnt a true No.

1.

The Leafs top five defensemen can all drive play and all fit established roles, allowing the group to be stronger than the sum of its parts.

Simon Benoit, though, is a significant weak link that can throw that all out of order.

On a team where the other five defenders have an expected goal rate north of 49.5 percent, Benoit somehow sits at just 42 percent.

The Senators have the same problem on their third pair.

While Ottawas top four offers the same role versatility with stronger players for each role than the Leafs offer, the third pair is a real eyesore.

Despite playing heavily sheltered minutes, the pair of Tyler Kleven and Travis Hamonic have been outscored 11-3 this season.

Klevens work with Nikolas Matinpalo is not very inspiring either.

Advertisement All that means is that the top four will have to deliver, and this is the one area where the Senators outclass the Leafs.

Jake Sanderson looks like a true franchise defender, something the Leafs do not have.

His partner, Artem Zub, appears defensively comparable to Tanev, while Thomas Chabot brings more offensive punch than Rielly.

Nick Jensen looks solid as well.

Head-to-head, the Senators have the edge here with Sanderson being the main factor.

Hes a stud who has the potential to tilt the series.

Theyll need it to be a big edge, though, with how large the talent gap looks up front.

Playoff Brady is a possibility where Tkachuk feels like a player who can elevate his game, but on paper Ottawas best forward is the fourth-best skater in the series.

Thats not an ideal start and things get more dire from there.

Tim Stutzle has had a nice bounce-back season with 76 points, but thats partially bloated by a high secondary assist count.

With 53 percent of actual and expected goals, his play-driving isnt at the level of Torontos top guys.

That duo might be able to prove their worth and hang with the big dogs on the other side, but the drop-off afterward is worrying.

While the Leafs have a potent big five up front, the Senators dont even have a big three.

Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto and Claude Giroux are nice players, but none look like true top-line talents.

Dylan Cozens has received some fanfare for his time with the Senators, but hes still scoring at just a 53-point pace while getting crushed at five-on-five.

Hes the same defensive liability he was in Buffalo.

Ottawas bottom six can make up some ground as it does grade out slightly better than Torontos, but its not enough to compensate for the large edge the Leafs have in the top six.

Hockey is a strong link game and theres a lot more to like about Torontos top end.

That is, of course, if Torontos top players deliver on that promise.

That should be a lot easier to do against the post-rebuild Senators compared to the Bruins, Panthers and Lightning.

Should.

The key matchup Anthony Stolarz vs.

Linus Ullmark Advertisement If goaltending is the great equalizer, the Leafs and Senators are well prepared for Round 1.

Two summer acquisitions, Stolarz and Ullmark, have been difference-makers this year.

Stolarz has put up sparkling numbers, though thats nothing new for him.

On a per-game basis, he had an elite track record coming into the season which is part of the reason he grades out so highly.

He looks like the real deal after putting together an exceptional season second only to Connor Hellebuyck in GSAx under a larger workload.

Stolarz is also coming into the postseason hot, with stellar results over the last eight games.

Now the question is how he will handle a starters workload in his first real playoff experience; he has only appeared in 35 minutes of postseason action.

Ullmark is familiar with those questions.

He now has 10 playoff appearances under his belt and showed he has the chops to be a number one in Ottawa.

Despite some injuries and hurdles, he saved 17 goals above expected in 43 games and gave the Sens a chance on most nights.

Stolarz and Ullmark progressed a ton this year, and now its time to put that growth to the test.

The bottom line The Leafs regular season earned them a series against a weaker opponent than theyve seen in quite a while.

The Sens regular season earned them a chance at dealing their biggest rival its nastiest loss since ...

well, last year.

On paper, the Leafs are a solid pick but as we know, thats not where the games are played.

References How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving-Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey-Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder (Top photo of Anthony Stolarz, Simon Benoit and Brady Tkachuk: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images).

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