After a historic dropoff, can the Braves' offense ever get back to its 2023 form?

It was just two years ago, but it feels like 82.

Remember the 2023 Atlanta Braves? They mashed like the 1927 Yankees.

They ran the bases like the Olympic 400-meter relay team.

They put up more crooked numbers than the NASDAQ tote board.

Oh.

And they were also the winningest team in baseball (104-58).

So what the heck happened to those Braves anyhow? Advertisement Eleven games into this season, the 2025 edition of the Braves is 2-9.

They headed into their series against the Phillies this week with a team batting average of (yikes) .193.

The team OPS was just .577, which ranked as the worst in baseball.

And wed have said that was just a blip on their radar screen ...

if it werent for last year.

Last year.

We cant stop thinking about it.

Did you know the Braves scored 243 fewer runs last year than theyd scored the year before? Does that seem like a lot? You have no idea how historically a lot it was.

Well explain in a moment.

But first ...

is it time for concern, panic or doom? I asked Braves legend Chipper Jones that question the other day on the latest edition of The Athletic s Starkville podcast, co-hosted by me and Doug Glanville.

Jones sounded only slightly petrified as he delivered this reply: Probably somewhere between concern and panic, he said.

He made that pronouncement on the eve of the series with the Phillies.

The Braves have split the first two games of that series, so theyre already six games behind the Phillies and 5 1/2 behind the Mets, just two weeks into this season.

But just for the record, the man who built this team isnt boarding the USS Panic yet.

I would say its hard to take anything away from such a small sample of games, said Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves president of baseball operations, hours before the series with Philadelphia began.

You have a good week, all of a sudden it changes.

You have a good two weeks, all of a sudden it changes.

So I just dont want to take a 10-game or nine-game sample and draw conclusions that fast.

Its exactly what any president of baseball ops should say in moments like this.

Its what all of us would be saying about the 2025 Braves ...

if it werent for last year.

Advertisement Weve been working under the assumption that 2024 was just one of those seasons.

Injuries happened.

Baseball happened.

The 27 Yankees imitation didnt happen.

But now, 11 games into this season, is there enough to make us wonder if 2024 wasnt as flukish as it felt at the time? I didnt see us struggling this bad, Chipper said on Starkville.

Youve seen abysmal hitting overall.

And the situational hitting has been even worse.

So what should we make of what were watching and what we watched last year? Lets dig deeper.

Making history ...

in all the wrong ways First, lets refresh your memory about the exploits of the 2023 Braves.

Wed remind you that they were great, except they were so much more than that.

They were unprecedented.

They had the same Weighted Runs Created Plus (125) as Babe Ruths 27 Yankees.

Wed never seen that before.

They slugged over .500 as a team.

Wed never seen that before.

They bashed 300 homers and swiped 100 bases.

Wed never seen that before, either.

They were essentially a whole team of Reggie Jacksons who could also run.

And yeah, thats a good thing.

2023 Braves .276/.344/.501 1976 Reggie .277/.351/.502 But it was a historic season for a reason, Anthopoulos said in the final days of spring training.

Because it doesnt happen very often.

So we knew thered be a regression.

We just didnt anticipate it would be to the level that we did.

So how precipitous was that regression last year? We posed that question to our friends from STATS Perform.

Turns out wed pretty much never seen anything like that, either.

RUNS SCORED 2023 Braves 947 2024 Braves 704 Not so fun fact: That 243-run dropoff wasnt merely the largest, in a full season, in the modern era by a team that had led the sport in runs the year before.

It was 20 runs larger than the second-biggest drop (by Johnny Peskys 1950-51 Red Sox).

Advertisement SLUGGING PCT.

2023 Braves .501 2024 Braves .415 Not so fun fact: That 86-point cliff dive in slugging was the worst, by a team that had led MLB in runs scored, since Tommy Tuckers 1894-94 Boston Beaneaters plunged by 93 points.

But here, again, the Braves suffered the largest drop in the modern era.

OPS 2023 Braves .845 2024 Braves .724 Not so fun fact: Only Boileryard Clarkes 1902-03 Senators (142 points) kept the Braves 120-point rockslide from being the biggest fall since 1900 by MLBs OPS leader.

HOMERS 2023 Braves 307 2024 Braves 213 Not so fun fact: The good news is, even though the Braves made 94 home run trots disappear, that was not the biggest dropoff by an MLB home run champ in the modern era.

Curtis Grandersons 2012-13 Yankees (minus-101) topped it.

But the Braves ranked No.

2.

Those werent the only eye-opening drops, but you get the idea.

So what happened? And did it tell us anything about what to expect from this offense this season? They overloaded the training room We were never healthy.

If I had 25 bucks for every time I heard someone in Braves Land say that last season, or again this spring, I could buy my own condo in The Battery.

Of course, lots of teams grumble about injuries when seasons go awry.

But in the Braves case, its 100 percent true.

They had their Opening Day lineup on the field for exactly seven innings all year the first seven innings of the season.

Then their catcher, Sean Murphy, exited with an oblique injury.

And that team the lineup that broke all those scoreboards in 2023 hasnt played a single inning together since.

Thats pretty crazy, said their center fielder, Michael Harris II.

Like every week, a new person went down.

And it wasnt even for, like, one day.

It was weeks at a time.

And I guess its kind of tough for any lineup to build chemistry when the people you thought were going to be in there werent there.

Advertisement That onslaught of injuries took its toll in many ways.

For one thing, Adam Duvall, Whit Merrifield, Ramon Laureano, Gio Urshela and Jorge Soler wound up starting a combined 250 games for the Braves last season.

Which was interesting, considering ...

they werent even in the organization on Opening Day.

And Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Harris and Murphy missed at least 50 games apiece which was jarring, considering how deeply the culture of playing every day is built into the DNA of this group.

So any deep dive into the numbers of the 2024 Braves has to take that into account.

But ...

That wasnt the whole story.

The Braves were not the most injury-afflicted team in MLB last season or even close.

In fact, according to Spotrac, both World Series teams lost more players, and had more days missed for injury, than the Braves did in 2024.

(Source: Spotrac) So those sprains, strains and broken bones were part of this story but not all of this story.

(Almost) everybody struggled Lets tip our cap to Marcell Ozuna.

He had a huge season (39 homers, .925 OPS) that was every bit as productive as his monstrous 2023 (40 homers, .905 OPS).

Ah, but now here comes another but ...

Not one other member of this lineup could say that.

Five of his fellow Braves hitters saw their OPS dip by at least 100 points: Matt Olson, Acuna, Albies, Murphy and Orlando Arcia.

Three of them Olson, Acuna and Murphy dealt with plummets of at least 200 points.

And Riley and Harris needed big finishes to keep their OPS dips from exceeding 100 points.

So yeah, thats everybody except Ozuna.

Did injuries or their aftermath play a role in some of those drops? Sure.

That seems likely.

Its also reasonable to remember that no two seasons are alike.

But was that 2024 season practically the opposite of the offensive season that came before it? It felt like it.

Advertisement Yeah, youve got different guys in there, so the (batting) order is getting mixed up, said Olson, who dropped from 54 homers to 29, despite playing all 162 games in both seasons.

Plus, guys werent swinging the way they can, aside from Ozuna.

...

So its going to be hard to string stuff together when youve got over half your lineup not clicking at the same time.

Thats why we had such a good year in 23: Our whole lineup was clicking every single night.

...

Usually, most years, youre going to find some kind of blemish that guy who doesnt have the best year.

But honestly, it was every single person that had a great year, and you just dont see that very often.

You just dont see that ever.

But you know what else you dont see ever? The rest of the league sitting back, looking at the carnage and saying: That worked well.

Lets just keep pitching those guys the same way weve been pitching them.

In other words ...

The league adjusted In 2023, the Braves hunted four-seam fastballs ...

and obliterated them at levels weve pretty much never seen since its been tracked.

They slugged an incredible .550 against four-seamers that year with a hard-hit rate of 55.5 percent, which ranks No.

1 among all teams in the Statcast era (2015-present).

But last year, their slugging percentage against four-seamers plunged by 115 points, the largest decline by any team in the sport.

Yet they were one of the few lineups to see more four-seamers than they saw the year before.

The difference, according to data analyzed by my Athletic colleague Eno Sarris, is that they were seeing more four-seamers in the lower half of the strike zone than the average lineup.

And their slugging percentage, against those low four-seamers in the zone, dipped more than 130 points, from .587 to .455.

So that played a role, clearly.

But what about another question raised by the Braves players themselves: Were they also unlucky? In this age of information, its possible to peer at lots of data points, just to see what we find.

And heres one thing that jumped out as we picked apart the differences between those two Braves seasons: They essentially had the same line-drive rate as the year before and they actually hit more fly balls than the year before.

But their rate of homers per fly ball was so different, it was hard not to wonder why.

Advertisement BRAVES HR/FLY BALL PCT 2023 13.9 percent 2024 10.3 percent (Source: Baseball Reference) There were some times last year where we thought there were some balls that were going to get out that didnt get out, Harris said.

That was something else I guess we had to fight through.

I think it happened a lot more than it should have or we expected .

Hmmm.

Does that mean they occasionally cooked up some conspiracy theories about the ball, the humidor or other unnatural phenomena? We might have, Harris said, with a grin that suggested there was no might about it.

But in baseball, you cant control everything.

And once its hit, you cant control where it goes, how far it goes and who catches it.

So thats just something weve got to work on, is just controlling what we can control.

So was there really something going on? Or was it just in their heads? If there was something odd about, say, the humidor, it would have only affected them at home, right? Well, Statcast data does show a surprising disparity at home between their actual slugging percentage last year versus their expected slugging a metric that tells us what theoretically should happen when a ball gets tattooed a certain way.

(Source: Baseball Savant / Statcast) So how odd is that 20-point negative disparity? Well, the Braves had only a six-point negative disparity on the road.

The average team, on the other hand, wound up slugging two points higher than its expected slugging percentage last season (home and road).

So if the Braves had their suspicions, you can see why.

But its a new year.

So ...

What does all of that tell us about this year? So which is the real Braves offense the Ruth/Gehrig-esque bombers of 2023 or the What Just Happened slumpers of 2024? I really dont know, said their manager, Brian Snitker.

The game drives us crazy, trying to explain it.

Thats probably the best way to put it.

But if the Braves thought it was just injuries or bad luck or something flukish, heres a question: Why did they fire the hitting coach? Advertisement Kevin Seitzer had been in Atlanta for 10 years.

He was as respected as any hitting coach in the sport.

And when that 2023 team was making history, he rightfully got lots of the credit.

Then, after the Braves were swept by the Padres in the 2024 NL Wild Card Series, he was fired and it happened just a few days after Anthopoulos and Snitker had said all the coaches were coming back.

Anthopoulos said this spring that firing Seitzer ( now the hitting coach in Seattle ) was the most difficult coaching change weve had in the time Ive been here, because there wasnt anything wrong.

The easy decision would have been to not make a change, right? Anthopoulos went on.

Thats the comfortable decision.

...

But you ultimately say: What if we go into 25 and we end up with the same results? We would look at ourselves and say as a front office, as a manager, as a group we didnt do everything we could.

And that might involve making a tough decision.

So the Braves took the uncomfortable course and replaced Seitzer with Tim Hyers, former hitting coach for the Dodgers, Red Sox and Rangers.

I just think everybody set that bar really high two years ago, Snitker said, and last year it just didnt happen for whatever reason.

I dont know the answer.

But Tim has done a really good job of coming in and being aware of the team game, meaning just the value of a walk.

Our chase (of pitches outside the strike zone) was big.

We hit into a lot of double plays.

So I think just getting away from the chase and being more selective thats been his approach.

And I think as you get guys understanding that, its going to help us.

Ten games into the season, their rate of chasing pitches outside the zone (28.6 percent) was almost identical to last years (29.2).

But their walk percentage (10.9 percent) was way up (from 8.0 percent).

Advertisement Unto itself, that feels like a harbinger of better days ahead.

On the other hand, the Braves continue to feel the absence of two important offensive figures Jurickson Profar (just hit with an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs) and Acuna (not expected back for another month as he recovers from reconstructive knee surgery).

The loss of Profar Profar signed to a three-year, $42 million deal after a career season in San Diego was the Braves one significant offseason addition.

But he was just 3-for-15, with no extra-base hits, before his suspension.

Now, he wont return until July and is ineligible for the postseason if the Braves can get that far.

Man, that was the real killer, as far as Im concerned, Chipper said on Starkville, because he was kind of the Swiss Army Knife of the lineup.

He could hit first.

He could hit second.

He could hit down at the end of the lineup to help turn it back over and get it to the Acunas and the big bats.

...

And then to have this happen, it was really kind of a gut punch to everybody in the organization.

The Braves did sign free agent Alex Verdugo as a depth piece toward the end of spring training.

Eventually, hell get a shot to plug this leak.

But Verdugo is still working his way back into game shape and after a season with the Yankees in which he managed only an 83 OPS+, he isnt exactly Dale Murphy reincarnate.

So hes just a lottery ticket.

The loss of Acuna In July 2021, Acuna tore his right ACL chasing a ball on the warning track.

Last May 26, he tore his left ACL on a play on the bases.

He was back in the big leagues just nine months after the first ACL tear.

But with ACL Rehab 2.0, the Braves approach has been much different.

After watching Acuna struggle all season the first time, the plan this time is to be a lot more cautious and not bring him back until close to a year after the injury.

Advertisement The training staff has been really good in preparing him, Snitker said.

And I think when he gets back and we get him, were gonna have the real Ronald.

But is that a safe assumption, that Acuna can just hit the accelerator and turn back into the MVP version of 2023? Before we assume that, is it OK to ask: How do we explain last year? Acuna did play 49 games before he got hurt and was rocking career lows in batting average (.250), slugging (.365), home run rate (just 1.8 percent) and hard-hit rate (47.8 percent) when he went down.

Maybe he was dealing with lingering effects of a spring training knee issue.

But as he returns from a more serious knee injury, how can anyone be sure if the Braves will get the real Ronald back? And the fate of their offense if not their season might be wrapped around the answer to that pivotal question.

As he goes, said Chipper, who also suffered two ACL tears during his career, we do go.

...

But man, we have to be careful with him.

This is the second one hes had.

I had both of mine on one leg.

Hes now done one of each.

What Im most anxious to see is the explosiveness.

Is it still there? Is he still able to cover that ground in right field? Has he still got that first step coming out of his break, stealing bases? All these things, all these questions, have to be answered before hes coming back.

And I cant wait to see it.

There are a million people in Atlanta who share that anticipation.

But that isnt the only question.

We still dont know the answer to the biggest mystery: Is the Braves 2023 offense coming back? I dont think its impossible, Olson said.

Weve done it once before.

We can do it again.

But the first 11 games of this season have sent mixed messages.

And the underlying data from 2024 isnt something to ignore.

So all we know is, the Braves have 151 games left to answer all of our questions and their own.

(Top photo of Austin Riley: Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire / Associated Press).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.